“I Won’t Tell You To Short Bitcoin,” says Guggenheim CIO After Capitulating During June Drop
It looks like Guggenheim Chief Investment Officer Scott Minerd didn’t get his sub $30k bids filled as he revealed this week that he is no longer invested in Bitcoin. In an interview with CNBC he said,
“The one thing I learned as a bond trader years ago, when you don’t understand what’s happening, get out of the market … So discipline tells me now I don’t fully understand this.”
The CIO first came into the limelight when back in December 2020, he said that Bitcoin could hit $400,000 only to increase this target to $600,000 two months later. During this period, BTC went from $20,000 to $60,000.
But in June, when Bitcoin lost more than 50% of its value from May ATH to just under $29k, Miners called for a drop to $15k. Now that Bitcoin is back on the rise, on the way to hitting its ATH as it trades around $64k, Minerd has completely got out.
“We were long going into that, we sold, it pulled back to where I thought it was and really after looking at it thought you know, we gonna probably go lower.”
“Well, we didn’t, so we’re not in.”
The latest euphoria in the crypto market is on the back of the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF making its debut on NYSE to mark the launch of the first Bitcoin ETF in the US. The futures-based ETF will make it easy for institutional investors who want exposure to the cryptocurrency, said Minerd.
Besides crypto assets, crypto-miner stocks are also surging, with Marathon Digital Holdings Inc., Bitfarms Ltd., and Hut 8 Mining Corp., up at least 180% so far this year. Michael Novogratz’s crypto asset manager, Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd. has also doubled in value this year.
According to Minerd, the upward moves in the stocks are “spilling over” into other asset classes, including cryptocurrencies.
“You see bitcoin and what it’s done over the last few weeks. I can’t tell you it’s a value but I won’t tell you that you should short it because you know it’s likely to be higher in the coming months.”
He also said that he still sees the potential for the price of Bitcoin to reach his first target of $400,000 based on its value and scarcity relative to gold.
In an interview with Bloomberg, Minerd also said that the majority of cryptos are worthless and bound to fail. Only a handful of big winners will remain in the end, he added.
“Seventy percent of the coins are garbage and will go away.”
“The question is, just like the internet bubble, which of the companies, survive. Will Amazon be the big winner or will Pets.com be the big winner?”