The Long and Short of Bitcoin (BTC) This Week

Bitcoin entered the weekend on a bullish note, going above $60,150, just shy of reaching its all-time high of about $61,700.

But over the weekend, the prices end up going lower to $56,500 as $515 million Bitcoin longs got liquidated on Sunday. Overall, more than $1 billion was liquidated on the day, and the funding rate neutralized with the highest at 0.1219% on Bybit.

Now, Bitcoin has started this new week on a red note. As of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $57,500.

While April has started at -2.26% performance, the leading cryptocurrency ended the quarter first as the best one in eight years. Historically, April and quarter second both call for good things ahead.

“Bitcoin’s price has a lot of room to go,” says trader and economist Alex Kruger.

Miners are also busy accumulating all the BTC that they have been mining after selling a bunch at the beginning of the year.

Becoming Digital Gold

Bitcoin has a long way ahead with many more ATHs to hit; however, trader Alex Kruger points out how the digital gold’s run has been “behind in percentage terms.” And as its market penetration saturates, which will eventually, “price growth will then only grow in nominal terms, i.e., will fail to outpace inflation in larger time frames,” he said.

This is because the trader noted, Bitcoin will then “cease to be a fantastic speculative asset, and become a better store of value and medium of exchange. It will be even more akin to digital gold. Gold is an asset which in real terms (inflation-adjusted) is stationary.”

While digital gold will behave like precious metals, which has been flat over the years, Kruger says, “coins that derive their value from cash flow generation (and survive) will continue moving higher in real terms once bitcoin flattens.”

This is where decentralized finance (DeFi) tokens come, which will go in a different path than the largest cryptocurrency.

While BTC would be digital gold, DeFi would be “Onchain stocks,” and as we have seen with the stock market, it has been only going up.

What’s Market Speculating

While this is a long-term picture, in the short term, Bitcoin remains volatile as retail and institutions continue to come alike.

In terms of corporate exposure, after Tesla, Square, and MicroStrategy speculation doing the rounds in the market is of the popular departmental store Walmart ready to join them.

Not to forget that back in 2019, Walmart also applied for a cryptocurrency patent resembling a stablecoin. The Arkansas-based retail behemoth has also filed for several blockchain-related patents.

While Wal-Mart hasn’t declared anything, the market loves to speculate the kind of chain-reaction it will start — putting BTC in the balance sheet, rolling out BTC as a payment method in thousands of its locations, and employees being paid in BTC, which will lead to hyperbitcoinization.

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Author: AnTy

Ethereum Price Bounces as the Network Prepares to Attract a New & Wider User base

Ether enjoyed some green moves over the weekend, going as high as $1,755 before making its way to $1,650 on Monday. As of writing, ETH/USD is trading around $1,700.

This upward move followed Bitcoin, making some recovery in tandem with the stock market. Besides aligning with wide market appreciation, Ether’s greens could also be attributed to an upcoming significant change to the network.

Over the weekend, Ethereum blockchain developers approved the EIP-1559 that will burn the network fees paid in Ether, creating a positive feedback loop for its price. The proposal will be part of the London hard fork that can come as early as July.

“This is probably one of the biggest milestones we’ve seen recently,” said Eric Turner, director of research at cryptocurrency analytics firm Messari. Up until the EIP 1559 goes into effect, the supply of Ether has been theoretically infinite. “Now, they’re actually controlling inflation on Ethereum,” and “in some cases, you’re looking at negative inflation, so it’s definitely important,” Turner said.

While scaling Ethereum will lower fees, per user, at the same time, it will “increase the overall userbase by even more, and therefore increase the total fees,” notes Qiao Wang of DeFi Alliance.

This proposal will help attract a new user base by making the platform “easier, faster, and cheaper to use,” explained Wang. Implementing EIP-1559 would mean that only Ether can be used to pay the transaction fees on the network, cementing Ether’s role in the ecosystem.

Tim Beiko, a senior product manager at ConsenSys, also said, going forward, “we’ll gauge demand for the network, and we put that average price as part of the network itself.”

EIP-1559 “fixes a bug in the economics of Ethereum we’ve known about from the start,” Beiko added.

A small bounce in Ether’s price relative to Bitcoin can also in part be attributed to NFTs (non-fungible token) going mainstream.

Traditional media is all over the NFTs, which are being sold for a hefty price. Recently, a publicly available 10-second video clip was sold for $6.6 million.

“At this point, NFTs have made a greater impact than DeFi. Both in terms of cultural impact and news users brought into the wide crypto ecosystem,” said Wang. According to him, it is largely because NFTs are easier than DeFi, from a users’ perspective. “Playing games, collecting items are easier than complex financial games,” he added.

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Author: AnTy

Holiday Crypto Dip & Reversal; Strong Week Ahead After Leveraged Longs Rinsed Out

The cryptocurrency market is already recovering fast after the weekend dip.

Late Sunday or early Monday, the price of Bitcoin went down to about $45,700 level not long after hitting a new all-time high at nearly $50,000.

Already, BTC/USD has traded above $48k and is now back to targeting the ATH.

However, this time this buying power didn’t come from Coinbase, the biggest exchange in the US, as there has been no premium on the exchange compared to Binance, Huobi, and OKEx.

Bitcoin’s losses came despite the dollar keeping near two-week lows on disappointing employment data and looking for evidence that the US rebound would outpace the economies of other major countries.

However, many financial markets are out in the United States for Presidents’ Day, and in Asia, the markets remain closed for Lunar New Year.

The prominent reason for the dips has been simple, according to trader and economist Alex Kruger, which is also the only bearish thing, “degen longs abusing leverage.”

This can be seen in the almost $1.9 billion liquidated in the last 24 hours, as per Bybt. Among the 303,349 traders liquidated, the largest single liquidation order happened on Huobi-BTC, valued at $21.25 million, and the highest liquidated amount on Binance at nearly $1 billion.

Interestingly, only $582 million of it belongs to Bitcoin liquidations, the majority of them long.

Most of the liquidations belong to altcoins that include not only Ethereum but DeFi coins, including the likes of AAVE, CRV, UNI, 1INCH, BAL, and COMP.

And this is why Kruger is bullish on the risky assets this week noting,

“I expect a strong week across risk asset and crypto assets. Crypto needed leveraged longs to get rinsed out. We just got that.”

The funding rates across exchanges on both Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual contracts have calmed down to 0.01% to 0.04%, as per Viewbase.

image1

In tandem with Bitcoin, the rest of the cryptocurrency market took a fall, with Ether dropping to $1,655 level ETH -0.10% Ethereum / USD ETHUSD $ 1,813.21
-$1.81-0.10%
Volume 37.76 b Change -$1.81 Open $1,813.21 Circulating 114.69 m Market Cap 207.95 b
5 h Canadian Singer, Grimes, Entering the NFT Scene; Volume Jumps 2.6x This Month 7 h Contentious EIP-1559 Seeking Community Consensus as Ethereum Miner Revenue Hits an ATH 8 h Holiday Crypto Dip & Reversal; Strong Week Ahead After Leveraged Longs Rinsed Out
. While Ether is aiming for $1,800 yet again, the overall market capitalization has recovered half of its $110 billion losses and yet again is on the way to the $1.5 trillion mark.

1% to 4% gains are recorded across the crypto assets, which for some cryptocurrencies goes up to 7%.

As for those, who might see this as the top of the market, the total market cap is only up 1,150% from the March 2020 lows, which are nowhere near the 2017-2018 bull market that resulted in the total market cap increasing by 4,500%.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Breaks Above $24,000, Another Company Cut Down its Gold Exposure by 50% in Favor of BTC

It is the weekend, and Bitcoin is pumping again.

After breaching $20k on Wednesday then breaking into a new all-time high on Thursday, Bitcoin has broken above yet another level today.

Bitcoin surpassed $24,000 but with only $4.48 billion in ‘real’ volume, now up 120% in quarter fourth of 2020

“We are extremely bullish. Our confidence in it has gone up since 2017,” said Cathie Wood, founder of Ark Investment Management. According to her, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is “the flight to safety currency.”

After the last bull run and the following bear market of 2018, when Bitcoin’s share of the crypto-asset ecosystem moving from the low 30 percent range in terms of network value into the low 70 percent range, it confirmed that BTC “is the reserve currency of the crypto-asset ecosystem,” said Wood in her interview with Bloomberg.

Keep on Stacking Sats

Amidst this wild rally, Christopher Wood, a global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, a global investment banking firm, also jumped into Bitcoin by cutting down his gold exposure in his long-only global portfolio for US dollar-denominated pension funds established at the end of Q3 of 2002.

“The 50% weight in physical gold bullion in the portfolio will be reduced for the first time in several years by five percentage points with the money invested in Bitcoin,” Christopher wrote in his weekly note to investors. But it is not all; they are further planning to stack more sats as Christopher said,

“If there is a big drawdown in bitcoin from the current level, after the historic breakout above the $20,000 level, the intention will be to add to this position.”

Given that BTC has increased more than 231% in value this year, getting hilariously rich, it makes sense that everyone is feeling the FOMO.

Despite trimming down his precious metal holdings, Jeffery is still bullish on yellow metal as long as the central bank continues its ultra-loose monetary policy.

“This does not mean that GREED & fear is going to give up on gold. And the yellow metal should rally again if the Fed stays dovish in the face of the dramatic cyclical recovery that is coming on the other side of the pandemic, in line with GREED & fear’s base case.”

Tides will Turn

Bitcoin is the shining star of 2020 as every other day; a new institution gets out of the woods to jump on the bitcoin bandwagon.

And this interest from institutional investors over the last couple of months, who are driving this market and not retail, is what sets it apart from the 2017 bull market.

“There is definitely a huge uptick in institutional adoption,” said Spencer Bogart, general partner at Blockchain Capital, in an interview, adding we’re “not seeing the same uptick across retail.” Compared to the last bull market,

“retail awareness of this rally in 2020 is still relatively muted. Now I think the tides will turn and we’re going to have both sides of the market kind of participate here.”

Bogart further pointed to PayPal allowing its 380 million users the ability to buy, sell, and hold crypto, which means “it’s hard to see how we don’t go from 100 million users currently to a billion over the next few years.”

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Author: AnTy

Binance Halts Filecoin (FIL) Withdrawals Over the Weekend

Over the weekend, leading spot crypto exchange Binance stopped the withdrawal of the Filecoin (FIL) without any announcement.

Even after 24 hours, it continued to show, “The current currency is not open for withdrawal.”

The exchange finally told its customers that it was due to the sudden failure of the wallet. The weekend was to blame, and Binance has to do internal technical repairs to restore the FIL network mainnet.

“The industry suspects that a large amount of FIL has been lent from Binance before,” tweeted Colin Wu of Chinese publication Wu Blockchain

“Binance Filecoin inventory has been drained it seems like, withdrawal of FIL has been paused for over 24hr now Lots Chinese FIL miners rekt badly and the rough total investment into FIL mining is way over its circulating market cap,” also noted Dovey Wan, the founding partner of Primitive Crypto.

“As total Filecoin investments number floating is over 10b RMB (adding up sales number from all rigs manufactures and sales channel) ~1.5B in USD,” she added.

FIL is the 21st largest cryptocurrency with a $1.34 billion market cap while trading around $30.

The price of the token started uptrending in June this year, when it was trading under $7 only to climb above $56, on the anticipation of its mainnet going live in mid-October.

It was during this time, Coinbase Custody announced support for the cryptocurrency. Last week, Filecoin was also tradeable at Coinbase.com and on the San Francisco-based cryptocurrency exchange’s Android and iOS apps.

Last week, Coinbase also allowed people to earn up to $6 in FIL tokens through its Earn program.

Filecoin is a decentralized peer-to-peer file storage network that was initially released more than six years back. The project aims to let anyone store, retrieve, and host information, and for this service, FIL tokens are used as payment.

In other news, YUANLIQU, one of China’s largest Filecoin companies, has been reportedly frequently attacked by investors to defend its rights in its Shanghai office because “too many Filecoin mining machines are sold, but the profit design is confusing. The police have stepped in.”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Retesting Resistance as Institutional Investors Take Profits & Reduce Holdings

Over the weekend, Bitcoin managed to recover the losses it suffered over the last week completely. From the low of $17,600 on Friday, on Sunday, the price of the digital asset went back to $19,500.

This strong rally is also reflected in the premium on futures, showing the market’s confidence in the price trend.

However, as per CME’s latest data, as of Dec. 12, institutional investors reduced their positions for risk control. While asset managers’ long positions fell from 626 to 544 and their short positions increased from 0 to 11, leveraged funds’ long positions declined from 4,509 to 4,365 along with their short positions from 9,375 to 9,354.

This reflects that institutional investors have taken off profits and reduced their holdings, as per Quandl.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD has been trading around $19,100 with a trading volume of $2.24 billion.

While people continue to hope for a deeper correction to sweep off even more of the BTC, the largest cryptocurrency is not giving the market a chance to do it.

As trader Credible Crypto noted, “Once a key area of resistance is broken, it typically acts as support.”

Last month, around Thanksgiving, Bitcoin went down to about $16,400, a drop of 16% from about $19,500. After going above $19,900, we had a dip last week of under 12% with no daily close below $17,100.

The trader expects bitcoin to do a repeat of it, retesting the $19,900 high from earlier this month to take a drop around $18,600 before we move on to rally off above $20,000.

“I think it’s the less likely scenario, but a sweep of the $20k ask liquidity before a dip back under to find the bid demand again would be a very Bitcoin thing to do. Would put us on pace for sustained ATHs in the 2nd half of Jan,” is another trader’s expected scenario.

For now, the bitcoin market is giving “encouraging signs” that says we can go higher.

As trader Jonny Moe notes, the Adam and Eve pattern we got on the low timeframe has broken to the upside; now the digital currency needs to fill out the ascending triangle to make a run for $20k by this upcoming weekend.

The market has turned bullish with the latest uptrend, and bulls are expected to be in charge as “the bears will want to wait for volume and momentum to fail prior to rushing in front of this freight train,” stated Hxro Labs, which called for the weekend’s rally.

But next year will be the most exciting when Bitcoin finally goes off above $20k and starts this bull rally in full effect.

And with institutions getting deep into Bitcoin, the moon targets have been getting higher and higher.

“Glad I bought Bitcoin. Next stop $50k. Wall of institutional money coming 2021. Buy below $20k,” said Robert Kiyosaki, the author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad.

According to Moe, “3500% > 1500% > 650% is roughly 40% of the prior move, and puts us right at $150,000.”

“Buckle up for a wild ~9 months folks,” he added.

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Author: AnTy

Nearly 1% of Bitcoin’s Circulating Supply Now Tokenized on Ethereum

Bitcoin on Ethereum continues to grow at a fast speed. Over the last weekend, a record 175.4k BTC has been locked on the Ethereum network through DeFi protocols.

This figure is currently around 170k, representing nearly 1% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply being tokenized and locked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) space.

Here, Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) leads the way with over 124k BTC worth about $2.2 billion. WBTC represents 20.23% of the total market cap of DeFi tokens in Ethereum, and 73% of all the BTC locked on Ethereum.

Following WBTC, Compound has 24.8k BTC locked in it then Curve Finance (24k BTC), Harvest Finance (22k BTC), RenBTC (just over 17k BTC), Maker (15k BTC), Aave (12.6k BTC), and Uniswap (6.7k BTC), as per DeFi Pulse.

Compared to just over 170k BTC locked in DeFi, the sector has a total of 7.7 million ETH deposited, which has declined 13.5% this week and still nearly 20% away from its 9.2 million high in late October.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Hits $17,000, But It is Clearly Different This Time in a Number of Ways

Bitcoin is back on the move.

After a small pullback over the weekend, the start of the week was an explosive one as BTC ripped past $16,800 on Monday and hit $17,000 today.

With this, yet another milestone was achieved by Bitcoin as the last time we reached this point was on January 7, 2018, marking the close of the 6th consecutive up week in a row. These came a single-day high USD transaction volume of 2020 was made just two weeks ago at $13.56 billion.

Still, no one is late to the party yet as “many on-chain indicators show that the bull market is only getting started. With BTC at $16.8k, Reserve Risk is just breaking out of the green zone and even lower than 2019 when BTC hit $13k,” noted Rafael Schultze-Kraft, CTO at Glassnode.

This uptrend actually started when Square first invested $50 million in Bitcoin; it has been pretty much one-way traffic since then. Even PayPal sees great demand as seen in the surge in the volume on ItBit, the exchange service provider of Paxos.

Grab those BTC

As Bitcoin continues to edge higher to the congestion area between $16,100-17,150, the risk-on sentiment remains unchanged with the aggregate open interest (OI) rising yet again to a new record high led by stablecoin margined futures as opposed to Bitcoin margined products.

Amidst these gains, miners have been selling an average of 11 BTC per hour at exchanges compared to 214 BTC per hour being scooped off the exchanges; this week, it was 328 BTC per hr.

Meanwhile, the miner hash rate has stabilized following the difficulty adjustments and miners’ transitioning their ASIC hardware to coal-powered northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang following the end of the rainy season in China’s Sichuan province.

Need to Break Above the 2017 High

Currently trading above $17,050 in the green with $3.4 billion in volume. With these gains, Bitcoin has surged 55% in this quarter.

Even despite the significant big gains and being more volatile than stocks, “the so-called minimum variance portfolio — comprised of the S&P 500 and a handful of digital coins — can nonetheless reduce risk meaningfully relative to equities alone, including during the worst of 2020,” said strategists Roberto Perli and Benson Durham of Cornerstone Macro LLC.

This year, cryptos are on a tear amidst the increased institutional acceptance, interest from not only younger investors but also family offices. The significant variance in their price moves is what makes them good diversifiers.

Bitcoin is seen as more and more like gold for the 20th century — a store of value. Compared to bullion’s 24% gains YTD, and down -0.29% in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin recorded a year-to-date performance of +133%.

Still, as we reported, the market isn’t that excited yet with the traffic seen during the 2017 top not here, by a wide margin. This can be seen in the Bitcoin-related tweets a day, which was around 120,000 at the height of the crypto boom and is now oscillating between 30,000 and 60,000.

“This rally is clearly different in a number of ways,” Guy Hirsch, managing director for eToro US, told Bloomberg. It is less speculative, and although despite recent developments, it has been advancing at “a snail’s movement, it’s in the right direction. Generally speaking, we’re very bullish on what’s happening.”

Even in the crypto market, the crash in the DeFi space in Sept. also has a lack of excitement in market participants.

“The individuals — a lot of those people got burned badly — they’re less excited about it now,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co. “It’s certainly not the huge hoopla we had back in 2017 — that could change if it breaks above the 2017 highs.”

According to Greg King, CEO of Osprey Funds, a subsidiary of REX Shares that runs a Bitcoin trust, people at the dinner table will be talking about Bitcoin when it hits $50,000 or $100,000.

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Author: AnTy

Capital Influx in Bitcoin Is The Highest its Been Since the Last Bull Market

Over the weekend, the price of the Bitcoin fell to the $15,700 level, but today, we made another attempt to test high levels. Going back to nearly $16,400, currently, Bitcoin is trading in the green with $1.85 billion.

According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is shaking off the bearishness technicals that make short and mid-term on-chain fundamentals bullish as more coins get scooped off exchanges still. This means more users arriving, indicating a buy the dip scenario.

This price action is rather organic, means instead of dominated by short term derivative traders, it tracks closely with investor capital entering and leaving.

The Realised Price of BItcoin, which estimates the average price the market paid for their BTC, is currently at its steepest slope for this cycle, “meaning capital influx into Bitcoin is at its highest rate since the last bull market,” said Woo.

Given that it is higher than last year’s $4k-$14k move, the current move signals to be more organic.

BTC-Realized-Price
Source: @Woonomic

“If you missed 2013 and 2017 bull markets: current bitcoin price rise to $16K is just a small taste of what will come next. We are just warming up,” said analyst PlanB.

As we reported, after JPMorgan’s bullish view of Bitcoin, Citibank released a report where it set the moon target for BTC at over $300,000 by December 2021, calling it the gold of the 21st century.

Already, the aggregate open interest (OI) continues to rise to new highs with that of the regulated venue, the CME, not lagging behind its peers either, a critical factor to consider.

“The outperformance is led by venues that provide stablecoin margined futures as opposed to Bitcoin margined products. As a result, the market is in a much healthier condition than it would have been if the said movement into stablecoin margin products did not happen. This leads to belief that higher levels will be achieved with much less strain on the market,” said Denis Vinokourov of Bequant.

The market cap of stablecoins has exploded this year, with that of the largest one, USDT surpassing $18 billion. All this dry power could further help the market run higher when prices start trending up again.

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Author: AnTy

ETH Exchange Balance at Two-Year Low While Skew Deep into Negative Territory

The weekend is here and so is red.

The cryptocurrency market is seeing a slight correction with ETH going to $455, down from yesterday’s high of $477.

At the time of writing, Ether has been trading at $460 in the red, with 250% year-to-date performance.

The good thing is the percentage of total ETH being held on exchanges is currently at 13.35%, a low last seen on November 23, 2018, as per Santiment.

“The almost exact two-year milestone is a positive sign for Ethereum holders, who have historically benefited when supply held off of exchanges is kept low.

It indicates that large whale selloff probabilities will remain limited.”

Also, “strong demand” is seen for ETH options calls, which are the right to buy the underlying asset.

While the price of Ether is taking a breather here, so are the DeFi tokens which rallied strongly this past week, as Bitcoin stood strong above $16,000 but didn’t move much.

As the price of BTC drops to nearly $15,700, so have the altcoins, ETH, and DeFi tokens except for the likes of Hakka (26%), Hegic (16%), Sushi (12%), and Uniswap (11%).

Overall, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi space hit a new all-time high today at $13.95 billion, as per DeFi Pulse.

The amount of ETH locked in the sector has also been on the move this past week, nearing the ATH at 8.9 million ETH.

While the ETH locked in DeFi are seeing an increase, those locked in for ETH Phase 0 slowed down, only reaching the 12.1% of the goal.

In its latest update, the Ethereum Foundation noted that with the genesis time set for Dec. 1st, 12 pm UTC, the community has to get their deposits on-chain before November 24, 12 pm UTC.

The deposits contract for ETH 2.0 was launched ten days back along with the mainnet launch Pad.

Yesterday, developer Danny Ryan also updated on the launch of Toledo devnet, a 16k validator testament with v1.0 mainnet configuration. Next week, the aim is to launch Pyrmont, 1 100k validator testnet mimicking mainnet conditions.

“Once Pyrmont is launched and stable, the testnet will be opened up to the community. Pyrmont can serve as a final place to test mainnet software releases and hardware setups in the run-up to mainnet launch.”

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Author: AnTy