Trader says Bitcoin has ‘No Real Top’ while BTC Price Drop Creates Largest CME Gap

The world’s leading digital cryptocurrency fell more than 18% over the weekend from the high of over $10,000.

Now just a few hours away from halving, bitcoin is still trading in the green by 2.66% above $8,900 while managing the daily trading volume of nearly $2.2 billion.

Bitcoin’s losses from earlier in the day has the altcoins turning negative as well, with deeper losses except for the likes of Augur (+9.50%), Holo (+8%), Zilliqa (+7.72%), and Monero (+5.49%), among others.

Reaching new highs

The fall in Bitcoin’s price in the spot market has created a CME gap, the largest one ever. After closing at $10,085 on Friday, bitcoin futures contracts opened on Sunday at $8,820, creating a $1,265 gap.

Earlier last week, CFTC group bitcoin futures registered record open interest at $368 million. It makes sense as macro investor Paul Tudor Jone bought bitcoin via cash-settled CME futures contracts.

As per CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report, the total number of “large open interest” holders, those traders with positions surpassing 25 BTC, hit a new all-time high.

In the first quarter of 2020, CME’s bitcoin futures also saw more than double the number of accounts, 567 new accounts, traded in Q4 of 2019.

Not just long open interest from hedge funds but from other trades and smaller non-reportable accounts has seen almost 50% growth.

Besides Jones, Renaissance Technologies said on March 30 Form ADV that its Medallion Funds are “permitted to enter into bitcoin futures transactions.”

Where to next?

Now, bitcoin is back at a level, we were trading at before entering into May. Here, $8,200-$8,400 is a “substantial support” available for the digital asset.

But losing this support level means, bitcoin could make its way back down to $7,400-$7600. But holding here means we can also bounce at $9,100-$9,500.

Loomdart, a popular personality on Crypto Twitter is also “watching 8600s” and if bitcoin closes above this level, “9k is in play” or “cluster of lines 7700-7900.”

Trader Majinstein has turned extremely bearish as he tweeted, “We’re in a bearish market cycle now. The top has been put in. The 55 days of uptrend is officially O V E R.”

Still, the risk-reward of bitcoin, “a 35-50% downside and 100-200% upside (1:2 to 1:6) in the following 1-2 years,” is favorable as “bitcoin has no real top,” said economist and trader Alex Kruger.

This means, “the day it goes above 20K it could go on a wild run to 50K in little time,” he added.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Market Update: Confidence is Returning, Bulls are Pushing Hard

Around last weekend, the price of bitcoin started moving up, and then this week, charts exploded as we made our way to nearly $9,500 on April 30.

This sudden and sharp movement resulted in the digital asset seeing first signs of decoupling from the equities market after being almost identical throughout April.

But correlations rely on long term data and now that we are back on the weekend, prices are seeing a lot of volatility. Currently, BTC/USD is trading above $8,850.

“Nice run we had on bitcoin… but then it all reversed. ppl will tell it’s because ‘halving is priced’ and all that. But the truth is because the stocks dropped a lot in the last two days and bitcoin follows stocks momentum like its bitch,” said trader BitBit. “It happens in times of uncertainty.”

Lots of Activity

Bitcoin had a good rally in April and closed the month with massive returns that have the market turning confident again. Bitcoin specifically is showing true strength by increasing its market share while most large caps lost.

Amidst rising BTC price, the USDT market cap grew 25% this month to nearly $8bln, and “its price is trading structurally at a premium to US dollars indicating strong demand,” shared Arcane Research.

Just like Tether, USDC is marching towards a $1bln market cap as the world gets forced to accelerate digital adoption in the COVID crisis.

An increase in trading volumes across spot and derivatives is also recorded which means money is definitely flowing in the market. However, market participants are still withdrawing their BTC from exchanges. After the market crash, the number of BTC exchanges addresses declined by 10% and is trending downwards.

The total futures market crossed nearly $40 billion. However, open interest remains significantly lower than before the sell-off.

“A majority of longs were forced to exit on the 40%+ down day and can’t come back as fast,” noted Skew Markets.

CME traders are back again as the open interest on the platform goes back to 2020 highs, surpassing $300 million this week.

While Deribit completely dominates the options market, BitMEX continues to struggle, recording a historical low open interest this week.

This reduction indicates that traders were forced out of their positions before they initiated new positions as on Wednesday, BitMEX had the 8th largest short squeeze over the past year. Additionally, this could be because of the recent flight from BitMEX to other platforms.

Meanwhile, it’s daily volume was 10 times the open interest.

Additionally, crypto twitter is also doing the “heavy lifting” and seeing more activity than at the peak of the sell-off. “The bulls are pushing hard!”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin’s Most Bearish Close is a Signal for Bears to Come Out Again: Analyst

Just before the weekend, we fell below the $7,000 level and dropped around $6,750. Although we made our way back above $7,200 on Sunday, we only extended the losses as today we went just under $6,550.

With this drop, Bitcoin has made the “most bearish close we’ve had in this entire rally,” points out analyst DonAlt.

“If there was ever a signal for bears to come out again, this is as good as it gets, so it would make sense for things to calm down and pull back from here.”

Source: CryptoDonAlt

Down 5.61% in the past week, we still jumped over 15% in the past month after a massive sell-off last month.

March was the 8th worst month for bitcoin since 2013 which closed 24.8% down following the stock market. The worst month was November 2018, with -36.3% returns.

Since the COVID-19 sell-off the world’s leading cryptocurrency correlation with the S&P 500 has been rising.

While economist and trader Alex Kruger says, “Charts for S&P 500 futures, crude oil front month and bitcoin. Honey badger still cares,” others are not of the same opinion.

“I have been short the stock market and long bitcoin multiple times in the past 5 weeks and have had an epic trading run,” said trader Scott Melker. “They’re not correlated for me.”

Foresee turbulence in near future

Last week was the best week for the stock market in over four decades while it was also the worst week with 6.6 million more people filing for unemployment for the first time, bringing the total tally to over 16 million and the jobless rate up to 10%. Chris Low, chief economist for FHN Financial after the jobless claims data last week wrote,

“Stocks are up because the damage to the economy — evident in claims — is beyond comprehension, while the response of the Fed is easier to understand.”

Now, according to Goldman Sachs Group, US stocks are unlikely to make new lows all because of policymakers’ “do whatever it takes” approach.

A combination of a flattening coronavirus curve and unprecedented policy support has “dramatically” cut risks. And if the US doesn’t have a surge in infections after the economy reopens, equity markets are unlikely to make fresh lows.

“The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse. These policy actions mean our previous near-term downside of 2,000 is no longer likely” for the S&P 500 Index.

On March 23, the US benchmark hit a three-year low at 2,237 but climbed to 2,812 on Thursday and is currently at 2,750.

Now, the strategists are expecting investors to look through first-quarter results from the upcoming earning season and focus on 2021 outlook.

“Despite the likely steady stream of weak earnings reports, 1Q earnings season will not represent a major negative catalyst for equity market performance,” the strategists wrote. “Our year-end S&P 500 target remains 3,000.”

The earnings report, however, could mean some hurdles for both crypto and the stock market.

“As earnings reports are released the market should be tested once again. The recent rally hasn’t been truly reflective of the harsh economic reality the world is experiencing,” said crypto investor and trader Josh Rager. “Stock & crypto markets could continue to rally in the short term. But foresee turbulence in near future.”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Jumps on the News of The Fed Launching “Unlimited QE”

Just like last weekend when the price of bitcoin reacted immediately to the US Federal Reserve slashing interest rates to zero and restarted the QE program, today bitcoin jumped on the back of unlimited QE news.

Bitcoin was trading under $6,000 only to jump to $6,629 in under an hour. However, we are back around $6,300, up 5.83% in the past 24 hours.

Despite the stimulus, the stock market opened lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 1.8% and S&P 500 fell 2.9%. Gold, however, headed higher on Monday to $1,524.96 an ounce after the Fed unveiled an aggressive round of additional stimulus.

“US stocks gave back all gains since the start of Trump’s presidency,” noted economist and trader Alex Kruger.

No Limit

The Fed said on Monday that it will launch several programs to help markets function more efficiently amidst the coronavirus crisis.

“The coronavirus pandemic is causing tremendous hardship across the United States and around the world. Our nation’s first priority is to care for those afflicted and to limit the further spread of the virus,”

the Fed said in a statement.

“While great uncertainty remains, it has become clear that our economy will face severe disruptions. Aggressive efforts must be taken across the public and private sectors to limit the losses to jobs and incomes and to promote a swift recovery once the disruptions abate.”

Fed President James Bullard predicted the US unemployment may hit 30% in the second quarter and an unprecedented 50% drop in GDP because of the shutdown to combat the coronavirus (Covid-19).

Among the initiatives is a commitment to continue its asset purchasing program, a new chapter in Fed’s “money printing.” Other initiatives include unspecified lending programs to support eligible small-and-medium sized businesses.

“We are now in QE infinity, again,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group.

Free Money, Not Free Lunch

The Fed has been injecting billions of dollars in the economy and considerings trillions more as the coronavirus cases around the world surge over 353,000 and at least 470 people die in the US.

With the shorter-term MMT announced, “the government can now spend all it wants,” said Kruger. This the economist said is “how free money looks like. But there is no such a thing as a free lunch.”

“Society pays for this. Via inflation. The price to pay is inflation in the long run. Inflation expectations are popping and the long end of the treasuries curve is already pricing it in,” said Kruger.

And this is why the crypto industry is so excited. Already, Bitcoin is looking like it might be decoupling, and according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, we would get more confirmation of this in the coming weeks.

He explains that in a flight to safety, traders first exit risk-on leveraged positions to pile into USD, which has been soaring all this time. Once the assets have crashed against USD and fear peaks, comes the time to hedge in assets ahead of rise in their value as it happened in 2008 in gold and Woo says would happen to BTC in 2020.

It’s the first time that Bitcoin is going through a crisis and there is no knowing how it will perform. Currently, it is acting like a risky asset with charts having a bear flag, however, the fundamentals are strong and bullish while the stock-to-flow model cointegration is being followed nicely.

“Investors and consumers have trouble understanding Bitcoin’s value proposition. The former expects a cash flow, the latter expects magical payments UX. Both are disappointed by Bitcoin. Savers quickly fall head over heels in love with Bitcoin,”

said co-founder of the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute, Pierre Rochard.

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Author: AnTy

Decision Time for Bitcoin (BTC): What’s Next for Crypto Market’s Leading Asset?

Chances are you did not check the crypto market over the weekend. If you had not, well then, you may be in for a surprise…in a good way, of course.

BTC was back above $10K for the first time since October 2019 and had been 160 days since it crossed the physiological barrier of five figures. More importantly, it is also back over the 200-day MA. That’s notable because, as Tom Lee of Fundstrat put it earlier this week, anytime BTC has broken the 200-day MA, it’s gone on to record an average 197% gain over six months.

We’re up over 40% since the start of the year, meaning if there is anything like a 197% gain on the cards, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.

Of course, it’s impossible to deny the connection between Bitcoin’s strength and that of traditional markets like the Dow Jones and Nasdaq. The stellar performance of those markets seems to be adding fuel to the fire in crypto, but what’s really going on behind these strong markets during a time of turbulence?

Markets Are Rallying on Turbulence

Western markets, particularly those in the US, are experiencing strong rallies since the Coronavirus made itself truly known in China. One would expect the opposite effect — that disruptions to the usual flow of capital, so tied in with China, would fuel major problems for globalized businesses worldwide.

That’s true, but it is only a fraction of the picture. Many see this moment as a turning point in the global balance of supply chain logistics. As businesses have to rely so strongly on China for nearly every step in the supply chain, the disruption caused by the current pandemic has shown businesses the dangers of keeping all their eggs in one basket.

It’s prompted many businesses to consider — and put into practice — moving jobs back to the businesses’ country of origin.

However, the initial euphoria being experienced in markets may give way at any moment to the true economic reality being painted by the pandemic and effective closure of China, the world’s #2 GDP economy. Bulls may be pushing markets higher now knowing full well that a China-led global recession may be in the cards.

Be that as it may, Bitcoin is tagging along for the fun.

Bitcoin: An Asset for Turbulent Times?

This leads us back to the million-dollar question — is BTC a safe-haven asset? We view the current scenario as one testing the mettle of that belief. Should Bitcoin continue prospering even as global pandemonium increases, then we’ll have to side with yes as an answer.

Again, BTC hasn’t had to face a true recession or widespread market downturn on the order of the dot-com crash in 2000. So, as the volume on havoc turns up, keep watching to see how Bitcoin reacts, especially with the halving at hand and the reality of digital gold coming closer to hand.

Be on the lookout for the halving which is now just 3 months away or just over 90 days from unfolding which many think will be a catalyst for demand as the digital asset becomes even more scarce once the BTC blockchain’s reward system drops down to 6.25 BTC per new block created.

Latest Bitcoin Price News and Crypto Market Updates

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Author: Andrew Tuts

Weekend factor? Altcoins looking to shine as Bitcoin (BTC) price stagnates around $10,000 USD

The weekend (Sat/Sun not the musician) always brings out the best in the crypto world –whether in volume, price, interactions or news flashes. As other markets close on Friday evening, the cryptocurrency markets keep running every second, minute, day and month.

Since the year began, weekends have had a rather significant impact in the growth of Bitcoin price from $3,500 at the start of the year to $10,100 USD as at time of writing. However, in the past few months, alternative coins (altcoins) have performed better than the pioneer cryptocurrency as reported by Bloomberg on Friday.

The Rise of Altseason?

BTC price momentum subsided in the past month and investors seem to have switched to altcoins. A number of top altcoins have outperformed the undisputed king of cryptocurrency in the last weeks as Ethereum, Ripple, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) all experienced massive gains in the past fortnight.

Ethereum (ETH), the second-largest crypto in market cap outperformed Bitcoin in six of the past 10 weekdays according to daily closing prices. Furthermore, ETH’s price beat Bitcoin’s in 8 of the past 11 weekends in total daily returns showing investors increasing confidence in the largest altcoin.

Source: Bloomberg

Ripple (XRP) has also witnessed a bullish momentum in the past week growing by 7.1% to trade at $0.28 USD as at time of writing.

Scott Freeman, co-founder and partner of JST Capital spoke to Bloomberg saying altcoins are on the verge of a breakout. As most projects gain real world use cases, investors are expected to increase their stake in the altcoin market Scott explained.

“With the realization that these technologies now are being adopted, they’re starting to solve real problems, and it’s coming to fruition at some level where the value proposition of these things is being recognized more broadly.”

– Scott Freeman

A Tough Mountain to Climb

Despite the latest heroics from altcoins in the past two weeks or so –a period that BTC’s price has remained rather stagnant oscillating around $10,000 USD – the top cryptocurrency is still way ahead of the other altcoins.

Since the start of 2019, ETH/BTC pair dropped by over 40% to trade at 21 million satoshis. XRP/BTC pair plummeted under the 3000 satoshi-mark earlier in the month, representing a 70% drop since the start of the year. XRP is currently trading at 2974 sats, as at press time, 3.3% lower in the past 24 hours.

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Author: Lujan Odera

Bitcoin Gearing Up For A Price Move; Will It Hit $13k or $8k Is The Question

  • Weekend is here, get ready for fireworks
  • Bitcoin takes a hit, goes down to $11,200, this could eventually push to the daily s/r 10.7-8k says trader
  • A retest of the $11,120 is expected

Bitcoin went above $11,000 on August 4th and since then it has been trading above this level. Though the flagship cryptocurrency breaks above $12,000 a few times, during the same period, it couldn’t stay above this level for long.

Currently, BTC/USD is trading at $11,300, after a sudden loss of 3.92 percent in a few minutes, while managing the daily trading volume of $1.13 billion, which has come down from $1.9 billion, this week.

Weekend Is Here

Now, we have entered the weekend which during the last uptrend saw heightened activity.

Bitcoin, that trends 24/7, tend sot spike on weekends. Since the beginning of May, the surges in weekend activity has accounted for roughly 40% of BTC price gains.

In December 2017, Bitcoin peaked at $19,666 on a Saturday.

Cryptocurrencies trade around the clock, unlike securities on most traditional exchanges.

As for why prices tend to spike on weekends, there are some potential reasons such as crypto investors spend the weekends discussing news items with friends and other investors, moving them to trade crypto assets, and crypto companies choosing Mondays for announcements that has many traders trying to get ahead of the news by trading over the weekend.

FOMO Also Play a Part.

But even as prices rise on weekends, fewer people might be trading altogether, accounting for more pronounced price moves.

Bitcoin Propped For a Move

As we make it to the weekend, trader Credible Crypto is expecting more sideways movement before we ultimately continue to the upside. However, once we clear highs, he sees a strong rejection coming that a loss of $11,450 will confirm.

“Here is a very viable alternate count that may have us visit 11k sooner rather than later…Ultimately, still looking to long 10.8-11k and expecting continuation up after.”

Bitcoin, today did just that, fell down to $11,200 in a sudden and sharp move on the weekend.

Similar sentiments are shared by market analysts and trader Benjamin Blunts who says this move could turn out to be a B wave that could take us to $11,200 before we breaking down for wave C that will take us to $12,923.

According to analyst, The Cryptomist, RSI pennant has broken up and had a re-test which she says is often followed by bullish price action.

Bitcoin currently has resistance at $11,905 and support at $11,730.

A retest of the $11,120 is expected says trader Scott Melker in his BTC Adam & Eve update. However, trader CryptoISO says, “this could eventually push to the daily s/r 10.7-8k.”

Bitcoin looks to be prepared for a big move, but it’s to be seen if it would be to the upside or downside.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Loses More Than $600 Under 5 Minutes, Drops to $11,200

The Weekend Is Here And Bitcoin Volatility is Back in the Market.

Bitcoin has been trading around $11,842 when a sharp plunge took BTC to $11,200 in less than 5 minutes.

However, it managed to not drop to the $10,000 level.

Today, Bitcoin has been trading at as high as $11,976 but is currently trading at $11,330 with 24 hours loss of 3.48% on Bitstamp.

In the past 24 hours, the trading volume managed by Bitcoin is still low at $853 million, which could be attributed to the weekend.

Analysts and traders have been expecting a drop to $11,000 and Bitcoin did just that.

“Going out. Lower highs. Primary concern is we closed above mid range level at 11.8k. Still held down by trend line at the moment. No closes through it. Hoping to see reversetetris.exe,” analyzed trader CryptoISO.

This, however, has brought back the call for $8,000.

As Bitcoin takes a hit, top 15 altcoins go red by as much as 4.45%.

This has the total market cap fall below $300 billion level, at $294 billion.

BTC dominance meanwhile, is still going strong, currently at 70.87% as per TradingView.

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Author: AnTy