The world’s leading digital cryptocurrency fell more than 18% over the weekend from the high of over $10,000.
Now just a few hours away from halving, bitcoin is still trading in the green by 2.66% above $8,900 while managing the daily trading volume of nearly $2.2 billion.
Bitcoin’s losses from earlier in the day has the altcoins turning negative as well, with deeper losses except for the likes of Augur (+9.50%), Holo (+8%), Zilliqa (+7.72%), and Monero (+5.49%), among others.
Reaching new highs
The fall in Bitcoin’s price in the spot market has created a CME gap, the largest one ever. After closing at $10,085 on Friday, bitcoin futures contracts opened on Sunday at $8,820, creating a $1,265 gap.
Earlier last week, CFTC group bitcoin futures registered record open interest at $368 million. It makes sense as macro investor Paul Tudor Jone bought bitcoin via cash-settled CME futures contracts.
As per CFTC Commitment of Traders (COT) report, the total number of “large open interest” holders, those traders with positions surpassing 25 BTC, hit a new all-time high.
In the first quarter of 2020, CME’s bitcoin futures also saw more than double the number of accounts, 567 new accounts, traded in Q4 of 2019.
Not just long open interest from hedge funds but from other trades and smaller non-reportable accounts has seen almost 50% growth.
Besides Jones, Renaissance Technologies said on March 30 Form ADV that its Medallion Funds are “permitted to enter into bitcoin futures transactions.”
Where to next?
Now, bitcoin is back at a level, we were trading at before entering into May. Here, $8,200-$8,400 is a “substantial support” available for the digital asset.
But losing this support level means, bitcoin could make its way back down to $7,400-$7600. But holding here means we can also bounce at $9,100-$9,500.
Loomdart, a popular personality on Crypto Twitter is also “watching 8600s” and if bitcoin closes above this level, “9k is in play” or “cluster of lines 7700-7900.”
Trader Majinstein has turned extremely bearish as he tweeted, “We’re in a bearish market cycle now. The top has been put in. The 55 days of uptrend is officially O V E R.”
Still, the risk-reward of bitcoin, “a 35-50% downside and 100-200% upside (1:2 to 1:6) in the following 1-2 years,” is favorable as “bitcoin has no real top,” said economist and trader Alex Kruger.
This means, “the day it goes above 20K it could go on a wild run to 50K in little time,” he added.