Celsius Network Grew 10x in 2020; ‘Huge’ Interest from Retail & Institutions for BTC, ETH & Others

Today, Bitcoin is keeping around $33,000 after recording an approximately 30% correction from January’s all-time high of $42,000.

The mainstream media and the likes of Scott Minerd of Guggenheim and JPMorgan are getting skeptical of this bull run extended further. Still, the cryptocurrency market has seen three of these bull runs and is expecting more uptrend.

According to Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius Network, “seeing a small correction is probably healthy for Bitcoin,” which is still the best performing asset class across 10, 5, or three year periods.

Not to mention, “at the same time, we are also seeing some of the other old coins close to hitting new highs. It is not just bitcoin outperforming. I think it was just a lot of migration of capital from the traditional markets, from the bond markets, from the stock markets into this non-correlated asset class,” Mashinsky said on Bloomberg.

Celsius, the second-largest asset management in the world, manages under $5.3 billion and works with over 350 institutions.

“We grew 10 times during 2020… We have seen huge adoption both in retail and from institutions,” he added.

Retail Front Running the Institutions

Bitcoin skeptics like UBS global wealth management still see Bitcoin failing due to regulatory threats and central banks issuing their own digital currencies.

However, while China is issuing a central currency, they do not promise limited supply, and just like the Fed is printing dollars, they will continue to print their digital versions, Mashinsky said. He added,

“The beauty of bitcoin is that it has limited supply. Everybody in the world knows that no one can print more of these, and the more people come in and buy Bitcoin, the higher the price is going to go.”

Besides the CBDCs, the mainstream media likes to point out how only 2% of buyers hold up to 95% of all Bitcoin. But what they miss about this data is that exchanges hold the BTC of a lot of users.

Mashinsky explains how Celsius has a bitcoin wallet with over $2 billion in it, but it doesn’t belong to one person. Unlike the traditional equities, you can’t really point to the owner. “We have 350,000 users that aggregate their coins into this wallet to earn yields,” he said.

“What we are seeing is that this is the first time in history where the retail guy got in on the next big thing ahead of institutions. The institution is just now running in,” with JP Morgan and Citi recommend Bitcoin for the first time.

The OG’s of the cryptocurrency space has been here for years, which are retail and the ones selling to the institutions.

This is why this time is different from 2017 as we see “some of the world’s smartest investors not just looking to diversify the asset class, but also generating yields and generating alpha on Bitcoin, and Ethereum and 42 other assets we manage. This is a new asset class that is now being adopted by a very broad base of investors,” said Mashinsky.

These institutions are coming in because of the macro environment. The problem is with the monetary system, which saw a half of the world’s dollars created in the last 12 months, basically when corona started.

This currency debasement is making a lot of people nervous and in their search for non-correlated assets to move away from the dollar or the euro, and because there are very, very few options, it is resulting in a stampede in Bitcoin, Mashinsky said.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Goes Ballistic on Christmas; Will BTC Hit $25k in 2020?

Bitcoin has hit a new ATH today at $24,720. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust meanwhile holds 607.27k BTC.

Bitcoin is looking ready to smash $25,000 on Christmas. A new day, a new ATH is the theme of 4Q20 for the BTC.

Given that the world’s largest cryptocurrency is on a price discovery, after breaking the 2017 peak of $20,000, it is what Bitcoin is now all about.

The week started on a red note and we dropped to $22,100 but ever since hitting a new peak, these small pullbacks BTC have been seeing have been reversed very shortly.

This week has been in contrast with the last week when BTC went from $18,000 to last weekend’s $24,300 high. Trader and economist Alex Kruger said,

“The crypto market became extremely levered up since the 20K breakout, which can be appreciated in futures basis and open interest spiking across the curve, and implied volatility spiked higher as traders repriced. High leverage translates into weaker hands and makes price vulnerable to large corrections. That is why we have been seeing such large two-way price moves since 20K. This is normal given such market dynamics.”

Strong Accumulation

To celebrate Christmas today, Bitcoin is looking to break through multiple levels. After yesterday’s brief trace to $22,600, we are onto new heights with a 5.5% spike and over a $1,000 green candle.

But the volume is currently low at just about $4.14 billion.

“BTC will break $25k without retesting $21k,” is what Ki Young Ju, CEO of data provider CryptoQuant expects to happen.

An interesting facet is the number of addresses holding at least 1 BTC on Christmas Eve.

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Source: Glassnode

These numbers have been consistently going up ever since the beginning of the Bitcoin, with the 2018 bull market exception when they saw a small drop. It was in December of 2018 that bitcoin bottomed at around $3,200.

Gobbling up Every Dip

Amidst all the price weakness, institutional buyers have been scooping off these dips in BTC that are followed by sharp reversals.

Coinbase has been seeing big outflows lately, reflective of massive OTC deals. On Wednesday, it hit 24,000 BTC, and then yesterday another big outflow was recorded from the San Francisco-based cryptocurrency exchange, as per CryptoQuant.

Everyone wants in on Bitcoin in the current uptrend. ByteTree founder Charlie Morris has “identified 50 companies, typically in the tech space, with surplus cash,” which are growth companies but not high dividend payers presenting a huge opportunity for BTC, if they decide to follow the same path as MicroStrategy and Square.

Also, Grayscale AUM has reached $16.4 billion while its BTC holdings have climbed to 607.27k BTC, representing 3.2% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Uptrending on the Weekend; But Not Everyone Wants to Bet Against the Brute Force of Billionaires

After yesterday’s drop to $17,600, today Bitcoin is back around $18,500.

Given it’s the weekend and the Bitcoin market is being led by US investors, with only $2.44 billion in ‘real’ volume, BTC is keeping around $18,450.

“Bitcoin looks like it could be ready to range higher over the weekend,” noted Hxro Labs. “If it manages to break into the VPVR value area around $18400, expect to see it trend up to the Point of Control ($19,086) shortly after.”

Compared to Bitcoins’ gains, ETH only managed to get to $560 while other altcoins are rallying much harder, including BASE (132%), NEM (25%), HAKKA (20%), YFI (12%), AAVE (11%), Monero (10%), IOTA (9%), Cardano (7%), and Litecoin (6%).

However, it’s still not known in which direction Bitcoin will move next. Many expect the pain to continue and even get us a better ‘buy the dip’ opportunity, while others expect the momentum to take us upwards.

As one trader noted, “One of the reasons I forfeited on the idea to get another significant short position is that I don’t want to be betting against brute force of billionaires.”

It has only begun

2020 for Bitcoin has been all about institutions; everyone wants a piece of the largest digital asset. It’s just that a few of them have revealed their positions while many are expected to be doing it without public disclosure.

“Reality is that I don’t know what will happen from here. Big cash flows are entering Bitcoin. Technicals that say downside is possible can be blown out of the water, whilst we should also not forget that institutionals don’t dictate bitcoin entirely, yet,” wrote the trader on Twitter.

Wall Street legends Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Bill Miller, and others like Mexican media billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego have been endorsing Bitcoin. After influential money manager Rick Rieder said Bitcoin “is here to stay,” Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, also noted that this untested and small market has “caught the attention and imagination of many people.”

However, “the adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun,” as written by the analyst team of JPMorgan led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.

Christian Armbruester, the founder of Blu Family Office, a London-based investment firm for wealthy clients, told Bloomberg that he wishes he’d bought more BTC, which he dabbled in a few years ago.

“We’re now looking for trading opportunities in a very exciting field,” said Armbruester, who manages $670 million for Blu Family Office.

Thanks to currency devaluation

This traction has been particularly the result of central banks and governments flooding economies with cash and dropping the interest rates to zero and sub-zero to address the coronavirus pandemic.

As we reported this week, first, ECB announced a $600 billion COVID-19 stimulus only for German Chancellor Angela Merkel to unleash another monstrous fiscal stimulus package to pump €750 billion directly into the economy, the very same day.

“Normally in times of crisis people run to cash but who in their right mind wants to be cash-rich at a time when major economies are devaluing their currencies?” says Kevin Murcko, the founder, and CEO of CoinMetro, an Estonia-based crypto exchange.

Even Ray Dalio, the founder of the world’s largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, said cash is trash and bitcoin can act as an “interesting” investment diversifier.

“You could say that Covid-19, the U.S. election, Brexit, and, well, the entirety of 2020 have altered the way many in traditional finance view the value of digital assets,” Murcko added.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Poised to Kickstart the Next Cycle with a Giant Monster Candle: Analyst

Today, Bitcoin dipped to $17,930 before bouncing back above $18,000 following yesterday’s dump.

The volume is low, and the market is currently in the red, but according to one analyst, “We are in the very final weeks of Bitcoin’s current Four Year Cycle.”

According to his analysis, the next cycle will give us the giant monster candle, which during the last bull run occurred in 2017, taking BTC from about $700 to the all-time high of $20,000.

BTC 4 Year Cycle
Source: Rekt Capital

Following the explosive October and November, December is turning out to be a month for correction and sideways action.

As the price of Bitcoin tries to find the direction it wants to move in, the network metrics are also showing weakness. The transaction value has eased back down to $22bn, and “the more people that exchange value, the higher the Bitcoin price will be,” noted Charlie Morris of ByteTree.

After amassing over 600,000 BTC, institutional investment flows also waned with the next upturn expected to “coincide with the long-awaited $20k breakout.”

Keep the Money Coming

While the largest cryptocurrency is taking a rest after rallying for the last two months to a new high, the stock market powered up. On Wednesday, S&P 500 surged to hit a new peak at 3,710 before falling to 3,660 the same day.

The US Dollar Index meanwhile continues to trade under 91 ever since its fall on Nov. 30. On the other hand, Gold has recovered from its loss to $1,760 as it makes a strong comeback to around $1,850 in these last 10 days.

These movements have been in response to the coronavirus stimulus package of $916 billion, which Congress continues to negotiate over but with no clarity.

Unlike the European Union, the European Central Bank has unleashed €500 billion ($605 billion) in new stimulus to prop the economy as “uncertainty remains high,” as per the central bank’s statement on Thursday. With this, the total stimulus program comes to 1.85 trillion ($2.24 trillion).

With the government’s money printer going brrrr… “it’s a bit silly to speculate on which one exactly will fall the fastest. However, it can be a good way to diversify your portfolio and drastically reduce risk,” wrote analyst Mati Greenspan in his daily newsletter Quantum Economics.

And this is why everyone is jumping into crypto. “Wall Street is quickly realizing that having a minimal exposure to crypto assets can be very healthy for your overall portfolio,” said Greenspan.

From Ray Dalio, Stanley Druckenmiller to Paul Tudor Jones, and Bill Miller, everyone finds bitcoin as a diversifier.

Wang Xing, CEO of China’s third-largest internet company Meituan is also into Bitcoin, as revealed by a Chinese publication.

Xing, who has previously said that bitcoin could be the biggest transfer of wealth in human history, recently revealed that he owns BTC adding, “I just think bitcoin is an awesome idea, the kind of awesome that is destined to go down in the history of human civilization.”

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Author: AnTy

The US Dollar Lost 99.9% of its Value to Bitcoin in Just Last 8 Years

Whistleblower Edward Snowden, a Bitcoin advocate, tweeted on Monday, “Today I learned the dollar had lost 99.93% of its value since 2013 (relative to Bitcoin).”

Recently, Crypto Twitter also called on President Donald Trump to grant clemency to Snowden, activist Julian Assange, and Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht.

In 2013, Bitcoin was worth a mere $100, and this month, the price of Bitcoin climbed to a new all-time high at about $19,950.

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Not only USD, but Bitcoin has also actually wiped the floor with other fiat currencies like Venezuelan Bolivar and Argentine Peso.

1 US dollar is currently worth 5,212 sats
Source: USDSat.com

In 2020, while the leading digital asset has been enjoying a rally attracting the attention of institutions, the US Dollar Index went from almost 103 to under 90.

“Institutional investors are keen on portfolio construction in the wake of Covid, and the ways they need to reposition themselves given how governments have injected stimulus into the system,” said Michael Sonnenshein, managing director of Grayscale Investments.

Interestingly, while the price of Bitcoin has all the space to rocket too; the limited supply of the leading digital currency only has 2.5 million left to be mined.

Institutional FOMO

Since hitting a new high on several cryptocurrency exchanges, Bitcoin has gotten stuck in a range, trying to make up its mind if it wants to make a run for $20,000 or $17,000. Currently trading around $19,160, less than $1.79 billion has been recorded in volume.

However, the digital asset did make an all-time high weekly close over the weekend, keeping its gains over 167% run-up YTD.

Unlike the previous bull run of 2017 which was retail-driven, this time the financial industry is the one playing a bigger role in this market.

“The multitude of regulated crypto exchanges and custodians has eliminated the ‘career risk’ for institutional investors,” PwC’s Hong Kong-based Global Crypto Leader Henri Arslanian said in an interview with Bloomberg. “In 2017, there was retail FOMO. The question is whether we will see institutional FOMO in 2021.”

Having already run to just inches away from $20k, the market has been predicting some wild targets for this cycle that goes as high as $100k to $300k.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Buy Signal Flashes; Institutional Investors Focused on Accumulation, Becoming Whales

Today, Bitcoin went as low as $18,700, and the volume remains around $3 billion as Bitcoin struggles to find a direction.

Interestingly, Bitcoin Hash Ribbon gives a buy signal that flashes when the hash rate has recovered (30d MA crosses above 60d MA). BTC price momentum is positive, as per Glassnode data.

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According to HRXO Labs, Bitcoin’s high range is $19,915, above which both BTC and ETH will rally higher, and range low is $16,200 below, which is “death.” But it is the sideways trading around $18,000, where altcoins live.

In the short-term, the leading digital asset is expected to show some weakness as in 4Q20; bitcoin has rallied 80%. Besides the correction to $17,300 last week, we haven’t had any meaningful pullback yet.

But given that this time is different, it is anyone’s guess where BTC will go next.

The good thing about it all is, once we are above $20k, the sky’s the limit with no barriers holding BTC as noted by analyst Ceteris Paribus, “after 20k there’s no resistance to 1m.”

The thing is, “Timing the macro top will be extremely difficult this time, with institutions potentially muting extreme moves. There will still be a lot of retail, but IMO institutions are in charge of the market this time. So macro narratives (e.g., inflation) are important to pay attention to,” said quant trader and entrepreneur Qiao Wang.

It’s an Institutional play

2020 is all about institutions in the bitcoin market. Just yesterday, Grayscale bought yet another 7,188 BTC.

“BTC whales are changing from Bitcoin OGs to inst. Investors,” responded Ki-Young Ju, the CEO of data provider Crypto Quant. This can also be seen in the 1% of BTC’s total supply that moved out of the long-term storage during the November price run-up.

Young Ju is actually bearish in the short term, as we reported, but goes on to say that the Grayscale institutional investors holding BTC on Coinbase Custody are why Bitcoin is currently going sideways rather than having a correction.

Institutional investors have actually accumulated more than 100k BTC, and they aren’t selling.

But despite just over 3% of BTC supply getting scooped off, the number of Bitcoin supply in circulation has remained relatively stable, as per ByteTree.

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Amidst this, the adoption curve of Bitcoin is growing faster than any other global infrastructure rollout before it that involves the Internet, mobile phones, and easily faster than “virtual banking” players like PayPal.

With the network strong and people continuing to buy any dips and adoption surging, it seems to be just a matter of time that Bitcoin price moons. Analyst PlanB, based on his stock-to-flow cross-asset model, said,

“If BTC doesn’t break it’s historical path: BTC market cap will approach gold market value $5-10T in 2021-2024 and approach real estate market value $10-100T in 2024-2028, after 2028 we can no longer interpolate and enter uncharted waters.”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Hits a New All-Time High on 3 Exchanges, 100% of BTC Holders in Profit

Yes, we finally did it. Bitcoin hit an all-time high today on a few exchanges.

When last week, the market was expecting new highs, the digital asset fell to $16,300, and this week, when another pullback has been expected, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high.

Bitcoin hasn’t breached $20,000 yet on spot exchanges, but on several exchanges, a new peak has been set.

Three cryptocurrency exchanges recorded a new ATH today that involves Binance, Bitstamp, and Kraken by breaking above $19,798, $19,666, and $19,660, respectively.

We have yet to make a new high on Coinbase, Bitfinex, Gemini, and BitMEX.

While BTC hasn’t hit the sweet $20k yet, we hit it on Bakkt and CME’s futures market.

In the immediate dip after the pump to new highs, which has BTC currently trading around $19,150, Kraken actually saw Bitcoin going as low as $16,600, unlike other exchanges where BTC only went about $19,000 level.

With these gains, 100% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is currently in profit.

“In trading, if everyone wants something, it never does. At 19K, everyone was expecting “one more push” to 20K, we dumped 3K instead. At 16K, everyone expected a “deadcat bounce” to 18K then 14K, so we short squeezed to 20K instead,” noted Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. “The market is a position weighing machine.”

Up 42.75% in November, Bitcoins’ year-to-date performance has risen to 176%. Now, it’s to be seen how high we close this month. Trader and economist Alex Kruger commented,

“This is how “institutions are coming” looks like. It’s not just institutions though. It is everyone. Institutions, high net worth individuals, retail, and even some corporates. All at the same time.”

Today, Janet Yellen has also been confirmed to be the first woman for Treasury Secretary’s role.

Another interesting development has been seen with the USD. At the same time, Bitcoin is ready to embark on price discovery, the US dollar made fresh 2020 lows, having fallen to its lowest level since April 2018.

But Bitcoin is just getting started, and it has a long way to go.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Is Heating Up; Funding Rate on Perpetual Contracts Has Finally Popped

Bitcoin has gained more than 70% since October; today, some it broke above $19k after taking a rest since breaking the $18,000 level last week. But it’s to be seen if $20k is coming soon.

It has been just this year in March, during the global sell-off, that Bitcoin went down to $3,800, and this week, we made a new all-time high at nearly $19,420. We are just over 4% away from the all-time of $20,000.

Despite these huge gains, the market has been pointing out there has been no change whatsoever in the funding rate.

A funding rate is basically used to keep the price of the perpetual swap contract, futures contracts without an expiry date, in line with the underlying asset. Every 8 hours, you will either be paying or receiving funding if you have an open position.

In a positive funding rate, longs pay the shorts; in a negative funding rate, shorts are the ones paying the longs.

Crypto market traders have been pointing these past few weeks how there has been no change in the funding despite the rally.

Finally, bitcoin funding rates on major cryptocurrency exchanges have increased considerably over the past few days.

“Long positions are heavily paying shorts – potentially incentivizing more traders to start taking the other side,” noted Glassnode.

The funding started increasing towards the weekend when Bitcoin dropped to about $17,500 level. The digital asset has been primarily keeping between $18k and $19k, taking a breather before going higher.

The funding rate on Bybit is the highest, having reached 0.16% and 0.0113% on Binance, with the mean going to 0.093%.

It is possible; finally, the market will get to have a correction everyone is waiting for some time now. During the 2017 bull cycle, the market had several pullbacks of an average of 30%.

“BTC finally heating up. Every time funding popped like this in the last six months, a strong correction followed within 24H. Basis also popping,” said trader and economist Alex Kruger. However, he added:

“This time may be different though: retail mania kicking in. Google Trends aside, I have not seen such retail interest since Jan/2018.”

The trader is expecting a repeat of this past weekend in a few days.

“This is short term leverage piling on top of the systematic spot buying we’ve been seeing for BTC and ETH.

Leverage accrued after an extended rally makes longs vulnerable. The underlying spot bid is widespread, so thinking this time is different, and leverage has room to build up.”

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Author: AnTy

Retail Investment Not Returned in Force Yet; This Doesn’t Feel Like 2017’s Bull Run

Today, BTC is tracing back the recent gains, going to the $17,400 level. A pullback has long been expected as Bitcoin has been surging since early October when the price was around $10,500.

For the last six weeks, the digital asset has been printed green candles, and this week, we might finally end up seeing some correction. However, BTC/USD is currently trading above $17,900 at the time of writing.

“We’re overextended here and due for a pullback,” Vijay Ayyar, head of business development with crypto exchange Luno told Bloomberg.

“Anywhere from between $18,000-$19,000 is potentially a top. We should have many people selling at these levels, especially those that bought at the top in 2017-18. Major rallies in the past always had 30-40% corrections. No reason to believe this time is different.”

Red in the Bitcoin market has the majority of the altcoins recording losses as well, with a few notable exceptions like FOAM (+90%), YFI (10.4%), and WAVES (7.6%).

Reaching for those highs

This week Bitcoin had a wild run as the leading digital asset went from $15,750 to nearly $18,500. With this, on Wednesday, the highest number of bitcoin addresses were created since January 2018.

Additionally, this uptrend saw the volume across the board, climbing to new highs. The leading spot exchange Binance recorded a new all-time high in its volume, as shared by its CEO Changpeng Zhao.

Yesterday, the real volume also surged above $6 billion, as per Messari. Even crypto exchanges went off as usual as the digital asset made some big moves.

However, on-exchange trading volumes are still below prior levels, “indicating that retail investment in the space has not yet returned in force.”

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“I don’t see this move as a mania or grossly over-loved just yet,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Financial Pty.

Still Far Off

While volume hasn’t made new highs, the aggregated open interest in the BTC futures market has done so at $6.4 billion, in USD terms, that is.

However, in terms of Bitcoin, the open interest is far from the ATH — trailing at around 390k BTC, below the yearly average of 395k BTC.

On CME as well, the open interest surpassed the $1 billion mark.

image1

Comparing the current market condition with that of the last bull run, analyst PlanB noted,

“Big difference with 2017 is that most BTC sold today will never see the daylight again, they disappear into deep cold storage. Buyers today are professionals with long term vision and staying power.”

As we reported, Chinese state media also shared bitcoin’s bull run with the people noting that the bull run of 2020 is institutionally driven in a more developed ecosystem.

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Author: AnTy

Capital Influx in Bitcoin Is The Highest its Been Since the Last Bull Market

Over the weekend, the price of the Bitcoin fell to the $15,700 level, but today, we made another attempt to test high levels. Going back to nearly $16,400, currently, Bitcoin is trading in the green with $1.85 billion.

According to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is shaking off the bearishness technicals that make short and mid-term on-chain fundamentals bullish as more coins get scooped off exchanges still. This means more users arriving, indicating a buy the dip scenario.

This price action is rather organic, means instead of dominated by short term derivative traders, it tracks closely with investor capital entering and leaving.

The Realised Price of BItcoin, which estimates the average price the market paid for their BTC, is currently at its steepest slope for this cycle, “meaning capital influx into Bitcoin is at its highest rate since the last bull market,” said Woo.

Given that it is higher than last year’s $4k-$14k move, the current move signals to be more organic.

BTC-Realized-Price
Source: @Woonomic

“If you missed 2013 and 2017 bull markets: current bitcoin price rise to $16K is just a small taste of what will come next. We are just warming up,” said analyst PlanB.

As we reported, after JPMorgan’s bullish view of Bitcoin, Citibank released a report where it set the moon target for BTC at over $300,000 by December 2021, calling it the gold of the 21st century.

Already, the aggregate open interest (OI) continues to rise to new highs with that of the regulated venue, the CME, not lagging behind its peers either, a critical factor to consider.

“The outperformance is led by venues that provide stablecoin margined futures as opposed to Bitcoin margined products. As a result, the market is in a much healthier condition than it would have been if the said movement into stablecoin margin products did not happen. This leads to belief that higher levels will be achieved with much less strain on the market,” said Denis Vinokourov of Bequant.

The market cap of stablecoins has exploded this year, with that of the largest one, USDT surpassing $18 billion. All this dry power could further help the market run higher when prices start trending up again.

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Author: AnTy