‘Earliest Practical Date’ of Phase 0 of ETH 2.0 is Not Until Bitcoin’s 12th Anniversary in 2021

Yes, July 2020 was the target as the likely launch for phase 0 of ETH 2.0, but it is still “in the final testing stages with large multiclient testnets,” and client teams are putting on the final touches.

They could be ready for a relaunch of a larger public testnet in a matter of weeks.

However, during the Reddit AMA today, Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, shared that the “earliest practical date for genesis” is January 3, 2021, that would be Bitcoin’s 12th anniversary.

This delay is caused by several things that need to happen before genesis, including a public testnet with over three clients running smoothly for two-three months and an incentivized “attack net” running for the same duration.

Adding a bug bounty program running for 2-3 months and serious differential fuzzing across clients, and all of this can’t happen in Q3 2020, and Q4 has Thanksgiving and December holidays.

Some developers are still optimistic about the launch date by a handful of weeks and “putting money on 2020.”

The good thing is Phase 1 is “looking like the extension of Phase 0” the real heavy lifting on the engineering side won’t start until later this year because, for now, most eth2 client resources are dedicated fulltime to shipping Phase 0.

Also, Drake believes, even the late launch comes with “goodies which may get you excited.”

In conclusion, they are expecting 3-4 production validator clients for genesis, BLS12-381 hardware wallet integrations are happening, and a new deposit contract is written in Solidity with lower gas consumption.

The ETH Lock-Up Issue

The Ethereum community is extremely excited about staking, a hot trend in the crypto market. The number of addresses holding 32 ETH, the requisite for staking has been fast-growing, and just last month, ConsenSys announced six crypto heavyweights — Binance, Huobi Wallet, Crypto.com, DARMA Capital, and Trustlogy, and Matrixport that will join its Staking Pilot Program.

During the AMA, Drake also shared that resolving the issue of not having staked ETH lock-up until Phase 1.5, which could take years, is a priority.

“It is also a thorny issue without a fully satisfactory way forward as of now,” said Drake. There are various possible outcomes, including ETH1 being fully merged into ETH2 being the cleanest but hardest to pull off.

Despite the issue of ETH being locked up for a long time, Drake believes they will “easily reach the 0.5m ETH threshold to trigger genesis” because staking rewards will be high during the early days and also because “many enthusiasts are keen to jump in.”

Phase 1 Much Simpler to Implement

Currently, more than 100 people are contributing to the ETH 2.0, which the researcher believes they have made hard for themselves.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin feels the same way as he shared his biggest regret today is “not launching” ETH 1.0 about a year later with all the deficiencies fixed.

For now, they are working on launching the testnet for Phase 0, which has apparently higher implementation complexity.

Phase 1 has two components, one being data only shard chains, which is “much simpler” than the beacon chain, and Phase 0 will already lay all the groundwork for it. The other one is a custody game and a crypto-economic game where complexity arises from challenge-response type interactions that have continually been refined and simplified.

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Author: AnTy

Ripple CTO Bullish on Bitcoin But Has Been Selling His Stash for Years

David Schwartz, chief technology officer at Ripple, recently shared that he is still bullish on bitcoin but is currently selling his BTC stash.

On being asked by Adam Back, co-founder and chief executive officer of the blockchain technology company, Blockstream, “aren’t you pro-BTC and converting XRP into Bitcoin?” Schwartz shared,

“Nope. I’ve been slowly selling bitcoin for the past several years.”

And the reason behind selling bitcoin is the risk. “I’m still bullish on bitcoin, it’s just the level of risk that has me selling,” he said.

This snippet is from the discussion about who is the pseudo-anonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto.

Stop Searching for Satoshi; We are all Satoshi

A Twitter user declared Adam Back as Satoshi Nakamoto to which the cryptographer replied with a simple “not me.”

Some also see Hal Finney, a cypherpunk and early Bitcoin contributor and Nick Szabo, a cryptographer who designed BitGold, as the pseudo-anonymous creator. Both are among the top runners for being Satoshi.

“FWIW they both said it wasn’t them also. We’ll never know – many cypherpunks had no social media footprint, and anon posts. Probably a digital ghost, who burned the nym to be safe,” said Back about Finney and Szabo being Nakamoto.

“Bitcoin is better as a decentralized digital commodity without a founder. We are all Satoshi,” he added.

This is where software engineer and Director at Ripple, Nik Bougalis, came who agreed with Back about Bitcoin being better without a founder.

“Abandoning the Satoshi Nakamoto persona and leaving Bitcoin to the world was a brilliant move,” he said.

A Ripple enthusiast also feels Ripple CTO Schwartz could be Satoshi Nakamoto. Still, Bougalis dismissed this, stating Schwartz has publicly denied it and that “his code & writing style simply don’t match Satoshi’s.”

And, “unfortunately” for Schwartz, he “didn’t find out about bitcoin until 2011.”

Schwartz chimed in to say that he thinks it’s plausible that instead of just an individual, Satoshi was a small group of people.

And that’s where Schwartz shared that he doesn’t have millions of Bitcoins, but he hasn’t lost the keys to his BTC holdings either, which he has been slowly selling for the past some years now.

“Bullish on X but Selling the X? Charlie is that you?,” a user commented on this statement.

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Author: AnTy

Bitmain Losing its Market Share as Customer Base Moves More and More Out of China

  • MicroBT eating into Bitmain’s lead, having a share of 35% in 2019
  • Bitmain still leading in energy efficiency with its brand new Antminer S19 Pro followed by MicroBT’s Whatsminer M30S++, Canaan Avalon 1146 pro, and Ebang

“Competition has tightened within the ASIC manufacturing industry,” stated BitMEX in its latest research report noticing the presence of big players like Bitmain, Canaan, Ebang, and MicroBT.

According to the report, post halving, both the ASIC manufacturing and mining farm operating sector will consolidate further.

Meanwhile, China which is still dominant in ASIC manufacturing has already started losing share in the mining farm operator business to Europe and North America.

“The customer base is moving more and more out of China,” said MicroBT marketing manager Elsa Zhao. The average customer size is also growing considerably but instead of longer small businesses or individuals, they are now larger funds, he said.

The Race to Lead

In late 2012 to early 2013, Butterfly Labs was leading the bitcoin mining industry but after it was shut down on the request of the US courts, it left Avalon as the market leader.

However, from 2015 to 2018, it was Bitmain who had the dominant position with the most efficient products.

“At the height of Bitmain’s power during the 2017 bull market, its market share was around 75%.”

The largest bitcoin mining manufacturer Bitmain’s dominance has been reducing, significantly so in the last 18 months or so. The largest player in the space is currently going through a power struggle between the company co-founders Micree Zhan and Jihan Wu.

Amidst the increasing competition, MicroBT is the one gaining traction and eating into Bitmain’s lead, having a share of 35% in 2019.

Relatively new to space, the company is founded by the former director of design at Bitmain which completed a round of financing in January 2019 at a valuation of $700 million.

The IPO Failures

Bitmain unsuccessfully attempted to IPO in 2018 but it remains on their agenda, however, BitMEX cautioned,

“it seems almost impossible to imagine Bitmain conducting a successful IPO until the above management difficulties have been resolved.”

Canaan however, did have a successful IPO and is the first Bitcoin ASIC manufacturer to market it to the public markets. But it’s performance has been extremely bad since the IPO, generating a full-year net loss of US$149.8 million in 2019. Canaan attributed these losses to COVID-19 but,

“going forward it may be challenging for the company to regain trust from investors following on from the write-down so shortly after the IPO.”

CAN shares are down 77% since the IPO while Bitcoin price is up 17% during the same period.

Just like Canaan, Chinese ASIC manufacturer Ebang is struggling with declining sales and inventory write-down driving losses. The company has also filed for an IPO in the US after a previous failed attempt to list in Hong Kong. The risk here, however, is lower.

Product Strength

When it comes to technology, Bitmain lost its lead in energy efficiency as well in the last year or so. MicroBT’s products have been more efficient than bitcoin, with the Whatsminer M30S++ operating at around 31 J/TH. However, it is marginally behind Bitmain’s brand new Antminer S19 Pro product at 30 J/TH.

Meanwhile, Canaan might release its 5-nanometer products in the market by 2021. In its quarterly report, it also mentioned the new Avalon 1146 pro, which will have an efficiency of 42 J/TH, compared to the currently on sale Avalon A1166 at 47J/TH. The new product, however, would still place it behind MicroBT and Bitmain.

Ebang’s latest product has an efficiency of about 57 J/TH, ranking it behind all of the other three players.

According to BitMEX, the lifespan of ASIC mining machines is likely to extend considerably.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Will Hit $150,000 & 5 Altcoins Will Rally in Next Bull Run: Predicts BlockFyre Founder

The world’s leading digital currency is currently trading around $9,700, still down 51% from its all-time high of $20,000.

But according to Simon Dedic, co-founder of Blockfyre, a crypto market research firm, bitcoin will rally 1,445% in the next bull run.

Dedic predicts $150,000 as bitcoin’s top, which isn’t the most outrageous one in the market. There have been popular calls of $100k by the end of 2021, $250k/$288k/$400k in the coming three to five years, and even a million in the future.

Interestingly, bitcoin had its third halving last month and historically, it has led the rallies. Amidst this, institutional adoption is strong with big names like Paul Tudor Jones also jumping in.

Bitcoin will rule the market, no doubt, but there are some altcoins as well that the venture capitalist is looking forward to in the next bull run.

Which altcoins will pump?

According to him, this bull rally won’t be like 2017 when one could have bought any altcoin and it would have been a good investment.

“This won’t happen again,” he said. But he still believes the bull rally will be here for altcoins and a few solid altcoins will see the pump.

Among the high market capitalization cryptocurrencies, Dedic has some really high price forecasts for Ethereum.

The second-largest cryptocurrency is already enjoying a rally for the past few weeks, with staking coming soon. It is also the base of the popular Decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Many are expecting Ether to outperform bitcoin.

Currently trading at $240, he expects it to hit $9,000, an uptrend of 3,650% much higher than Bitcoin just like in the 2017 bull rally.

Two of his altcoins are the hottest coins of the market, Tezos (XTZ) and Chainlink (LINK).

While Tezos is already up 120% YTD, LINK recorded 134% gains. Dedic sees both Tezos and LINK skyrocketing to $200 but while it is an increase of a whopping 6,723% for XTZ, it’s 4,455% for Chainlink.

BNB, the native coin of leading spot crypto exchange Binance, is also part of his altcoin to rally list which according to him can spike 2,840% to $500.

The most surprising addition to this list is VeChainThor, which he sees making the biggest percent of increase – more than 13,000%. VET is currently trading at $0.0075 and still down 73% from its ATH which according to Dedic could make its way to $1.

And the reason for the same is, “They continue to kill it and at some point, they will be rewarded.”

However, he did say that there needs to be “an improvement of the dual token system” because “VTHO isn’t optimal” and “it would be more beneficial for VET holders if VTHO wouldn’t be infinite and thus more precious.”

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Author: AnTy

7 Bullish Ethereum Charts that says Ether is “Significantly Undervalued”

The price of Ether might still be struggling around $200 but its fundamentals are screaming bullish. Post Black Thursday sell off, Ether has been seeing a net outflow (62% of days) from exchanges, which is a sign of accumulation.

Blockfyre charted several progress indicators for Ethereum against its price development since its genesis and the growth had them stating, “Ethereum is significantly undervalued at current prices.”

The first metric is development activity which indicates the health of the network that has been constantly increasing since 2014. Regardless of the price movement, the Ethereum foundation and its developers have been hard at work.

As we reported, the Ethereum usage is at its all-time high with the amount of gas used continuing to surge. Gas usage indicates the growing adoption of the Ethereum network.

“More than 60 billion gas is now being used on a daily basis — a sign that Ethereum blockspace demand has never been higher,” pointed out Spencer Noon, head of Digital Currency Group.

Interestingly, the increased usage of the network also caused the gas price to jump 300% since the end of April at 40 Gwei. On May 21st, it went up as high as 50 Gwei and is currently averaging around 37 Gwei.

The number of addresses holding Ether has just hit a new peak at 40 million, up 350% since early 2018.

The total daily active addresses are also at 380k, a figure not seen in over two years.

The mean dollar invested age that measures how long the Ether has stayed in an address before being moved has also been increasing since 2018. Recently, this metric also hit a new all-time high which shows investors accumulating and holding their Ether at these price levels.

What’s even more interesting is that the same accumulation behavior is seen in miners.

Ether miners’ balance is in an uptrend since its creation indicating even miners who are required to sell their ETH rewards to cover their expenses are preferring to hold their coins.

DeFi is already growing like crazy, now its users are starting to go parabolic. Currently, there are 178k DeFi users which is up from 90k five months ago.

Also, seven of the DeFi projects have more than $30 million assets under management (AUM) while a year ago there was only one such project.

The system is maturing rapidly and now becoming an “economic vacuum for all assets,” starting with Bitcoin as since May 1st, DeFi project WBTC has minted $25 million.

In 2020, while the world went into chaos, Ethereum averaged 850k transactions per day, which is up from 580k in early January. This is three times more than bitcoin averages on a daily basis.

Also, ETH fees have totaled at $426k in the past 24 hours, which is more than 237x than the third largest cryptocurrency XRP. As of May 18, 2020, Ethereum fee based ‘revenues’ have totaled more than $15 million in 2020.

Moreover, “Ethereum is the only network besides Bitcoin that has a meaningful market for security paid in fees.”

But the most prominent growth has been seen in stablecoins, with more than $7 billion in fiat-backed tokens now issued on Ethereum. Over the past three months, a major demand for crypto dollars was seen in about $4 billion in new issuance.

Adding to this bullishness is the 1 million new shares of Grayscale Investments ETHE product that has been issued in the past 3 weeks, noted Noon. This is a sign that institutions are showing an interest in ETH, he said.

All of this progress while Ether price is at two-year low are “very promising” for Ethereum Network and the prices.

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Author: AnTy

Cardano (ADA) Price Analysis (May 16)

• Cardano- upward pressure still dominates both the medium-term and short-term time frames.
• The crypto is well on its way to the resistance level.

ADA/USD Medium-term Trend: Bullish

Key levels

• Resistance levels : $0.07, $0.08, $0.09
• Support levels: $0.02, $0.01, $0.009


Cardano looks tasty for the bulls here in the medium-term outlook. The sustained bearish pressure at $0.049 in the support area is being exhausted as the bulls take over the market.

The bull’s gradual return into the market as the session opens today at $0.050 returns the crypto back within the range.

ADAUSD now trades at $0.051 in the resistance area above the two EMAs, an indication of an uptrend in the context of the market.

However, the stochastic signal at the overbought region at level 73% suggests the momentum in price may likely encounter a change in trend in the nearby days and in this case, a down trend in the medium-term.

ADA/USD Short-term Trend: Bullish

The coin is in an uptrend in its short-term time frame as we can see from the 4-hourly chart below. The bears drop the price down at $0.050 in the support area before the session closes yesterday.

The 4-hourly session opens today at $0.050 and rises further to $0.051 in the resistance area shortly after the session opens.

The bears in-road briefly drops the price of ADAUSD down to $0.050 in the support area at the time of writing.

With the price above the two EMAs and the stochastic signal up at around level 49% implies the bulls may continue and remain to dictate the crypto’s market in the short-term.

Hence a buy signal.

Disclaimer: The presented information is subjected to market condition and may include the very own opinion of the author. Please do your ‘very own’ market research before making any investment in cryptocurrencies. Neither the writer nor the publication (bitcoinexchangeguide.com) holds any responsibility for your financial loss.

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Author: Ben Jordan

CME Open Interest Makes a New ATH while BitMEX Gets Rekt, What’s Next for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin’s price has reiterated a bit to $9,500 but is still looking extremely strong, recording eight weeks of price gains in a row not seen since early 2017.

It needs to be seen if the price can push above the resistance level around $10,500 with halving next week.

The futures market is steadily back in contango but there are structural differences from the last time BTC price was at this level in February.

For starters, although the funding rate has turned positive just now, it is still close to zero. In Feb. it was highly positive, as longs paid shorts. Additionally, the premium rates on futures contracts are still low, the annualized premium rates for June contacts are one-third of February’s rates.

But this also means lower risk for large price dumps from liquidations as longs are less leveraged. Both short liquidations and futures markets have the possibility for further growth as they haven’t turned bullish yet.

This also points toward a spot driven rally and that the futures market has yet to be turned completely bullish.

Bitcoin investors turn to CME

The futures market has started to see the shift as the open interest on CME bitcoin futures made a new all-time high at $489 million.

The regulated bitcoin futures market grew faster than any other bitcoin futures market over the past month. Tim McCourt, Head of Equity Index and Alternative Investment Products at CME said,

“The recent growth of open interest in our bitcoin futures contract demonstrates market participants are increasingly turning to CME Group to express views and manage their risk amid ongoing global uncertainty.”

This growth actually coincided with the news that prominent macro investor Paul Tudo Jones started buying bitcoin futures.

Its competitor Bakkt that launched physically-settled bitcoin futures in Sept. 2019 only has a 5% share of the US bitcoin futures market and recently appointed its third CEO. The open interest on Bakkt bitcoin futures is just $13 million, still down from over $18 million in mid April. Compared to BitMEX’s 40% decline in traffic, Coinbase only had a 7% drop and Binance 2%. Meanwhile, OKEx saw the biggest uptick of over 238% (up from 1.73 million to 5.85 million)

Also, while other exchanges like Binance and Huobi saw about 10% positive change in their BTC supply, BitMEX had declined 16% since Black Thursday.

Binance actually overtook BitMEX and was the only exchange to see derivatives growth in April, as per CryptoCompare report.

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Author: AnTy

Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis (May 1)

Key Highlights

  •  XRP/USD market still sees a continual process of price retracements.
  •  The US dollar is now a bit pressing harder against the crypto under a high value of $0.24.
  •  Traders should be cautious of keeping too long on shorting positions of this trade.

Ripple (XRP) Price Analysis

• Major distribution territories: $0.26, $0.28, $0.30
• Major accumulation territories: $0.20, $0.18, $0.16

There is still a continual process of price retracements in the valuation of XRP/USD market. The base-instrument had once prevailed over the worth-value of its counter currency during the yesterday’s day trading operations while a high mark at $0.24 was touched.

The buyers have to put all strength together from around a low price value at $0.22 territory. Meanwhile, a breakdown at a $0.20 accumulation territory may result in revisiting a lower point at $0.18.

Ripple Technical Indicators Reading

The 50-day SMA indicator with the Middle and Lower Bollinger Bands are bent pointing towards the north. The Upper Bollinger Band has a curved towards the south-east direction above the current market line. That suggests that the bears are slightly putting the crypto-trade under a small pressure. The Stochastic Oscillators are within ranges 0f 40 and 20. And, they now briefly point to the south-east direction. That signifies the possibility of seeing a line of choppy price movements in a near trading session.

Conclusion

$0.20 price territory, has now come to serve as the key point that its breaking down will cause serious sell-offs. Nevertheless, there’ll still be a need to be cautious of keeping long on short-trading positions at a downward break of the market line mentioned earlier.

Disclaimer: The presented information is subjected to market condition and may include the very own opinion of the author. Please do your ‘very own’ market research before making any investment in cryptocurrencies. Neither the writer nor the publication (bitcoinexchangeguide.com) holds any responsibility for your financial loss.

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Author: Ben Jordan

ETH 2.0 Could Prove to be the Largest Economic Shift, Driven by Supply Shock & FOMO

Ethereum 2.0 might be months away still, having been in the works for a long time now with no definite date yet but enthusiasts are already very excited about what the future will bring.

Adam Cochran of Metacartel Ventures in his Twitter thread talked about why this could be the “largest economic shift in society.”

Short-Term Driving Prices

Rent seekers, large investors eyeing stable returns are the first economic case for Eth 2.0. With the new phase, when ETH switches to staking, Cochran says large investors will put money in the lock-up.

As we have seen in the crypto space, staking is the hottest trend, with nearly 80% of Tezos (XTZ) locked up for staking. And if 10% to 30% of all circulating Ethereum gets locked up, the supply shock could work in the digital asset’s behavior.

“Supply Shocks typically cause a drastic increase in the price of a good.”

The price spike because of scarcity would have these rent-seekers getting much higher returns from their fiat principle as such pushing them to go for a second round to buy and stake ETH.

“This is a ripple effect with diminishing returns where each round gets smaller and smaller in terms of its price impact” might not have the same impact as the initial round but some.

This heightened supply shock means the market starts to move upwards, creating FOMO among the retail investors who will “hammer in market buys to make sure they don’t miss out.”

As we saw during the 2017 bull rally, retailers tend to flood markets and unlike the last time, we have increased cash onramps with millions of verified users on crypto exchanges like Coinbase.

“With no stop gap this time around, that means these users can all FOMO at the same time.”

Mainstream media headlines would further create a flurry of these buyers. This demand shock means everyone wants a piece of it. This, in turn, ignites FOMO and drives prices to new highs in the short term, said Cochran.

Long-Term Factors Driving Growth

In the long-term, other factors will build a strong “Background Rate of Growth.” These factors include actual demand from a faster network and whale cycle buying because the ROI rate is up.

According to Cochran, these whales will put more ETH into staking, creating more nodes which means proportionally lower payout. As a result, creating a race to buy more to maintain earnings rate.

Besides this insane demand and supply shock that send the price skyrocketing, Cochran believes, “burning for Flat Supply with EIP-1559,” is the most important reason for ETH2.0 driving critical growth.

This means more efficient payments and no miner cabals voting on fees and burning of BASEFEE. And all of this means “Blue Diamond Go Up.” Cochran said,

“It is the perfect combination of instant spikes, repetitive buying loops, competitive race conditions to drive up a short-term price, and just the right amount of background growth rate to catch that price before it falls, and offer a steady growing network thereafter.”

These are some lofty dreams for Ethereum like any other crypto enthusiast has of different cryptocurrencies. Many others have talked about the trillion-dollar case for Ethereum, but for now, the most pressing issue is the constant delay in Eth 2.0 and its full rollout could take years.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Cash Miners’ in Loss as Breakeven Point Still the Same as Before Halving

While Bitcoin halving is still just over 20 days away, its fork Bitcoin Cash (BCH) already underwent its scheduled network halving last week.

A pre-set inflation adjustment, halving results in a 50% reduction in the new issuance supply of the tokens. Following BCH’s halving, both the hash rate and price of the asset declined substantially.

The week of its halving, BCH had the largest price decline among the large-cap cryptocurrencies, losing 9.5% of its value last week. In comparison, the top two digital assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw modest declines of 6% and 2% respectively during the same period.

At the time of writing, while BTC is trading at $7,180, down 2.23% YTD, BCH is trading at $239, up 4.40% YTD and its fork BSV is up 106% YTD $197, however, both BCH and BSV have much lower volume than BTC that makes it easy to manipulate.

It’s block production also got hit hard, with Jameson Lopp, co-founder, and CTO of Casa noting:

As for its hash rate, following the halving of BCH, the network hash rate declined considerably as miners reduced resources dedicated to its mining. Prior to the halving, the hash rate was hovering around 4,000 PH/s only to tumble down to 800 PH/s before rising to about 1,900 PH/s.

BCH mining profitability over time

After the halving, the mining rewards declined by half but while this block reward reaction increases the scarcity of the asset, it can also negatively impact the miners because of their revenue decline inline with reduced new supply.

While BCH price crashed after the March sell-off, down 95% from its all-time high, leading into the halving, the network hash rate remained near highs further affecting the profitability of miners negatively. TokenBlock noted,

“The network hash rate is closely related to miners’ profit margins. The hash rate increases as the number of resources, in aggregate, committed to securing the network through mining activities rises.

As resources dedicated to mining rise over time, efficiency gains and/or mining costs rise. As such, in order to maintain healthy profit margins for miners, a rising hash rate is typically needed to correspond with a rising asset price.”

However, the price of BCH has been under pressure over the past few weeks, as has been the broad crypto market and global financial markets because of COVID-19.

As per TradeBlock’s mining profitability estimates, had BCH miners not reduced their hash power drastically, they would have been operating at significantly negative profit margins following the halving.

Source: TradeBlock

But now that the network hash rate has declined considerably as miners either shut down or re-allocate their resources to other networks like bitcoin, mining breakeven is near similar levels seen last month, ~$200-250 per BCH.

With BCH price still below $200, Bitcoin Cash miners are now operating at a loss.

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Author: AnTy