SEC Chair Gary Gensler Pours Cold Water On the Possibility of Bitcoin Spot ETF

Bitcoin Futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have started trading, but there is no hope for a physical Bitcoin ETF yet, and if there have been, they are dashed by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler.

Speaking at Yahoo Finance’s All Markets Summit Monday, Gensler reiterated his concerns about investor protection in the $2.75 trillion crypto market.

“Investors aren’t protected the way they are, whether they go into the stock or bonds markets that we’ve overseen so long.”

“Without that, I think it really is, as I’ve said to others, a bit of the Wild West.”

Last week, the first ETF linked to Bitcoin futures contracts was approved in the US, whose debut was the second-largest ever for an ETF and the fastest ever to amass $1 billion in assets.

On the back of the ETF, the price of Bitcoin made a new all-time high at $67,000, on which optimism started to build over the prospect of giving a Bitcoin spot ETF the green light as well.

But Gensler noted that bitcoin futures are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

“It’s a matter of bringing as much of this space within the investor protection remit.”

Waiting to continue

A few days after the ProShares (BITO) debut, Valkyrie also launched its own Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BTF) with Valkyrie CEO Leah Wald saying that with regulators giving a thumbs up to bitcoin futures ETFs, she believed that “demand is strong enough to bring two or three Bitcoin futures ETFs” to the market.

During this time, Grayscale Investments also submitted a filing to convert its largest Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) to a bitcoin spot ETF fueling hope that the regulator may soon open to spot offerings.

But Gensler didn’t offer any thoughts on if SEC has changed its attitude towards a spot product after the hot debut of futures products.

“These markets, largely around the world, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, don’t have the similar protections against fraud and manipulation and front running and other abuses.”

“Most of it has not come within an investor protection remit.”

According to Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, Gensler’s comments show the SEC is still a ways away from approving such an offering.

“The SEC doesn’t believe they can properly surveil crypto exchanges and combat potential fraud and manipulation.”

“While the futures-based bitcoin ETFs are a positive first step, it appears that investors might be waiting awhile on a spot product.”

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Author: AnTy

DeFi Rallies Towards New Highs As Multiple Layer 1 Blockchains Amaas $50 Bln in TVL

The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector has started to go up, yet again.

DeFi tokens are in the green, gradually moving up with Perpetual protocol (PERP), leading the gains up 16% in the past 24-hours. Popular DeFi coins, PancakeSwap, AMP, Thorchain, Synthetix, Bancor, Curve, Swipe, Alpha, Venus, Polkastarter, and Akropolis are also up 5% to 10%.

This has the total DeFi market cap climbing towards its all-time high of almost $150 bln from mid-May, according to CoinGecko. As of writing, the market cap is above $143 bln.

But it is the total value locked (TVL) in the sector that is rising even more rapidly, which has surpassed the May peak of $156.2 bln last month, as per DeFi Llama. Currently, the TVL of the entire sector is sitting at almost $180 bln, with Aave contributing the highest at $16.33 bln.

In terms of layer 1 blockchains, Ethereum is a clear winner with roughly $131 bln in TVL, followed by Binance Smart Chain at $19.32 bln. Other popular blockchains with smart contract capability attracting the most capital include Terra $7.63 bln, Polygon $5.28 bln, Solana $4.81 bln, Avalanche $2.42 bln, and Fantom $1.25 bln.

Binance and Polygon are the only ones that are about 40% down from their ATH TVLs, while others are hitting new highs.

Deflationary Pressure

With these latest uptrends, DeFi is actually catching up to the rest of the market, with the overall market capitalization of crypto reaching $2.45 trillion, just inches away from May 12 ATH of $2.55 trillion.

Ether, in particular, has been rallying for the past month thanks to being the popular chain for the latest mania in town NFTs.

Ether briefly hit $4,000 late Friday and is currently trading around $3,950.

Besides NFTs, the London upgrade early in August, which implemented EIP 1559, is another factor behind its success as it reduced Ether’s supply increases and, at times, even making it deflationary.

Since the EIP 1559 upgrade a month ago, more than 212,000 ETH worth $714 mln has been burned, “resulting in continued disinflationary pressure on the Ethereum supply,” the Fundstrat crypto team wrote in a note Friday.

Onto New Highs

The breakout in Ethereum has cascaded into other cryptos and is also expected to help Bitcoin lead the way now.

The gains recorded by the leading cryptocurrency have been relatively smaller than its peers. But BTC also jumped $52,000 early on Monday and is hovering around this level now.

“Hold $50,000 and I expect Bitcoin to have another leg up to $60,000 and test the April highs,” said Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo. But Bitcoin “needs to start closing above $50,000 and settle in the early 50s to temper concerns that this is a double top and we’re heading down to $30,000 again,” he said.

Amidst this, users on platforms including Reddit and Twitter are discussing plans to buy $30 worth of BTC en masse on Sept. 7 to mark El Salvador’s law-making Bitcoin a legal tender coming into effect.

El Salvador has already begun installing Bitcoin ATMs for the conversion of the token into USD, and Congress has approved the creation of a $150 million fund to back conversions.

Meanwhile, USD went back above 92.2 to start the week after dipping to 91.941 for the first time since August 4. Benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields firming to over a week high helped boost the dollar. US markets are shut for Labor Day.

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Author: AnTy

Wells Fargo Is Offering Crypto Exposure to its High-Net-Worth Clients

Wells Fargo has also joined in on crypto-mania. The financial services giant has started offering cryptocurrency exposure to its high-net-worth clients (HNWI), reported Insider, saying a company spokesperson has confirmed this.

In 2021, banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers, and financial institutions, everyone from the traditional market has started warming up to cryptocurrencies.

In May, when it first became public, the investment-research division of Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, was planning to evaluate and onboard an actively managed crypto strategy on its platform for its qualified investors.

This search for “a professionally managed solution” has been going on for months, said the research unit’s president Darrell Cronk at the time adding, the strategy was likely to be ready in June.

Wells Fargo’s wealth and investment management arm oversee about $2 trillion in assets.

Competitors JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have also started offering their wealthy clients exposure to cryptocurrency recently.

“We think the cryptocurrency space has just kind of hit an evolution and maturation of its development that allows it now to be a viable investable asset,” Cronk told Insider in May but added that instead of a “strategic allocation,” he sees it as an “alternative investment.”

The financial institution also understands the importance of having a limited supply, with Bitcoin only going to have 21 million in supply ever, as Cronk noted that anytime supply is reduced, even if an asset’s demand holds constant, “it should increase the price.” Cronk said of cryptocurrencies,

“Over time, as people become more familiar with these and as they become more mainstream, I think it will naturally go up.”

“We’ve seen that happen quite consistently over the last decade, but we’ve seen it accelerate during the pandemic because there’s been more digitalization of platforms.”

With risks still present there, the bank will also focus on consumer protections and regulations. “So we’re not without risk, it’s just that we think there can be a viable investable option for those clients who show an interest,” Cronk said.

Wells Fargo has seen “quite a bit of interest” from clients.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Shows Strength with Shorting Expensive, FUD Losing Effect & GBTC Unlocks Winding Down

On Saturday, the price of Bitcoin went as low as $30,150 as the prices started tanking ahead of the weekend.

But before the weekend was over, the prices started pumping back up, with Bitcoin going above $35,000 late Sunday/ early Monday. As of writing, BTC/USD is trading around $34,200.

Ether rallied even more strongly, going as far as $2,085 after falling to $1,720 over the weekend. ETH 5.15% Ethereum / USD ETHUSD $ 2,083.45
$107.305.15%
Volume 25.51 b Change $107.30 Open $2,083.45 Circulating 116.48 m Market Cap 242.68 b
6 h Mexico’s 3rd Richest Man Bashes Fiat as “Fraud,” says Bitcoin Should be in Every Investor’s Portfolio 11 h Bitcoin Shows Strength with Shorting Expensive, FUD Losing Effect & GBTC Unlocks Winding Down 23 h Jay-Z Changes Profile Picture to CryptoPunk NFT as he Auctions NFT of his Debut Album at Sotheby’s

With weekend weakness followed by strength in the new week becoming regular and traders and investors started to act on it, the recovery moved earlier.

This latest up move came amidst shorting Bitcoin and crypto assets getting expensive as funding rates on perpetual contracts go deeply negative. It makes sense that now it’s bear’s time to get obliterated as bulls did over the past couple of months when funding rates were extremely high.

“The current bear market is, from a BTC funding perspective, even more extreme than the Mar-Apr 2020 bear market (i.e., derivatives traders more bearish now than then),” said trader and economist Alex Kruger.

This is actually the “first bull run we’ve had with a full on derivatives lead price discovery,” noted trader CL of eGirl Capital.

This is why the top this time at around $65k was different and why “as BTC grows, macro tops are likely to be smoother than a vertical x2 followed by -40% moves.”

“When market is convinced bullish, longs that build up simply become astronomical, market pumping vertically against all these people who would take profit become unfeasible,” he added.

“Only rational people shorting now using perps are short-term bears. Panic is not rational,” Kruger added.

Even the FUD is losing its effect with JPMorgan saying, “the crackdown on mining operations in China should be considered as positive for bitcoin over the medium term as it accelerates a shift away from China’s high share in bitcoin’s hash rate, reducing concentration.”

Adding to Bitcoin’s strength is the lack of any unlocking Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) shares for about a month. The discount on GBTC is also slowly shrinking, currently at 11.73%.

Starting July 17, some unlocks will happen with the biggest one, 16.24k BTC, on July 18th; however, “Its post 6 months from Jan 1st so it’s not the immediate dumpers pool so imo no way near as much of a concern,” said Loomdart.

With private placements in GBTC discontinued since March, no more “unlocks” will be vesting post-September as per Grayscale’s six-months lock-up rule.

While the crypto market looks good for the JPMorgan Chase & Co. team, including Josh Younger and Veronica Mejia Bustamante, the near-term setup is “challenging.”

According to them, recent cryptocurrency sales were made to cover losses and that “there is likely still an overhang of underwater positions which need to be cleared through the market.”

Still, stability in the Bitcoin futures market is a positive factor, alongside the possibility of increased production costs as China’s crackdown pushes Bitcoin mining abroad, said JPMorgan strategists.

So while the “cryptocurrency market shows signs that it is not yet healthy, it does also appear to be beginning the process of healing,” they wrote.

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Author: AnTy

Is The Worst Over? This Is What The Bears And Bulls Have To Say

What started the week before last got worse towards the end of last week. While Bitcoin already had its bottom at $30,000 on Coinbase and on some exchanges almost $28k, the pain continued for Ether prices.

On Sunday, while BTC went down yet again to $31,100, Ether fell to about $1,725 on Coinbase, representing a 60.6% drawdown.

Altcoins simply got obliterated during the Sunday sell-off, losing more than 90% of their value.

The new week, for now, is starting on a green note with BTC near $38k and ETH at just under $2,400. Just like altcoins went down hard, they are now up 10%-50% in the past 24 hours.  BNB +33%, ADA +34%, DOGE +13%, XRP +24%, DOT +78%, LTC +23%, LINK +44%, MATIC +80%, and SOL +33%.

It could be expected that the worst is over as the funding rates are in deep negative territory. Also, this seems to be the end of the largest liquidations as after the Black Wednesday blow-up, liquidations have been under $1.5 billion, and the open internet halved.

While amidst the low liquidity, selling pressure, and China panic continues to be a big negative for the market, miner capitulation and selling from corporates who have Bitcoin on their balance sheet could bring the bears back.

However, the market also has positive drivers in the form of increasing stablecoin supply. In the past seven days, USDT’s market cap has increased from $58.14 billion to $60.26 billion, and USDC’s rose from $16.86 billion to $20.63 billion, as per CoinGecko.

While it could be used for buying crypto, it could also be used to park in yield farms or collateral for someone trying to get super short, said Sam Trabucco, a quant trader at Alameda.

Not to mention, the supply increases if the peg goes above $1. Both USDT and USDC have seen some fluctuations, more than usual, since the mid of May.

Also, funds are coming with their money to scoop up cheap coins. As Jason Choi of the crypto fund, The Spartan Group noted: “Almost every retail friend I know has sold or is selling, and almost every fund I speak to is bidding, albeit slowly.”

Another fund Amber Group is reporting flows from crypto funds, macro funds, opportunistic VCs” who it says are “beginning to buy this dip in BTC+ETH as well as blue-chip DeFi by staggering limit orders and running longer TWAPs. Buying is still relatively passive/measured at this moment.”

The market is reversing from small Alts to Bitcoin, and Ether with Korean trading funds are spot buying.

“Asian family offices and UHNWIs which were sidelined are starting to fade this moving using options (selling puts) given the favorable skew / high implied vol as a way to scale in,” added Amber Group.

Bitcoin had its worst monthly performance in May since March 2020 and before that Dec. 2018. Bitcoin’s realized cap or “cost basis” actually decreased for 8 straight days during this recent sell-off, indicative of newer coins selling.

But this isn’t the same as the past bear markets.

“The difference between the price of BTC vs. that blended cost basis at current levels is the tightest its been since 9/8/20 and back in the ~50% range all time,” while in 2015, 2018, and 2020, it hit 0% and flip negative at various points, noted John Street Capital.

All of this has the market expecting the ongoing sell-off to be the mid-way of the bull run instead of a bear market.

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Author: AnTy

Turkey Tightens Crypto Regulations over Transaction Volumes

  • Turkey has started to toughen their grip on the cryptocurrency sector.
  • Turkey’s financial watchdog, the Financial Crimes Investigation Board or MASAK, has introduced a new policy that stipulates that all Turkish crypto exchanges must now inform them of any crypto transactions over 10,000 Turkish liras ($1,200).
  • The new policy was announced by the Turkish Minister of Treasury and Finance Lütfi Elvan.

Turkey Lays Down New Regulations For Crypto Exchanges

Elvan shared the new policy and other updates on the government’s crypto regulation drafts on a CNN Turk live broadcast.

According to the Finance Minister, the government plans to give MASAK the authority to audit and oversee crypto exchanges and regulate the crypto sector, as a whole.

Elvan said MASAK had prepared a guideline for crypto exchanges that includes the rules and penalties for reporting transactions. Elvan said,

“Crypto trading platforms are now obliged to share the information of their active users with MASAK. They are liable for any suspicious activities on their platforms. They are also responsible for notifying MASAK about any transactions worth over 10,000 Turkish liras in 10 days after the trading.”

This new regulation comes after Turkey’s central bank banned cryptocurrency as a form of payment. The bank had said crypto assets involved significant risks due to their volatile nature and may lead to irreversible losses to investors. It also added that they were used for illegal activities.

Turkey’s Recent Moves Surrounding Cryptocurrency

The country, which was once referred to as a crypto-friendly country because of its subtle approach towards digital assets, is rapidly cracking down on the cryptocurrency sector.

In March, the Finance minister posted a statement on Twitter where he expressed concerns about cryptocurrencies. He also announced that the ministry was working with the central bank and two financial regulatory agencies to monitor cryptocurrency.

Turkish investors turned to crypto in a bid to protect their savings from the weak Lira. Many believe the government is looking into regulating the market due to concerns around fraudulent activity.

One prime example of this is the case involving crypto exchange Thodex, which was accused of defrauding investors. About 391,000 investors on the platform were said to have been prevented from accessing their assets which were estimated to be $2 billion in investments. The Turkish police detained 62 people in connection with the case following complaints from users.

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Author: Jimmy Aki

Bitcoin Overcomes Technical Hurdle; Ethereum Prints 7 Consecutive Green Monthly Candles

Before moving into the weekend, Bitcoin started seeing traction and made its way past $58,500.

As of writing, we are still keeping around $57k on the back of very low funding rates. The highest Bitcoin funding rate is currently 0.0376% on Binance despite the price of Bitcoin increasing by about 11.5% to its highest level since mid-April.

Low funding rate has been the case ever since April 17, when over a million traders were liquidated for $10.1 billion. The funding even further minimized after another $4 billion were liquidated on April 22nd.

The same has been the case for ETH funding rates which are the highest at 0.056% on OKEx, while the price continues to hit a new all-time high — up 44% in the last 8 days to climb to $2,955.07 today and 0.052 BTC on Friday.

With seven straight green months in a row, Ether had its largest-ever monthly close. ETH 0.19% Ethereum / USD ETHUSD $ 2,951.18
$5.610.19%
Volume 28.03 b Change $5.61 Open $2,951.18 Circulating 115.71 m Market Cap 341.49 b
11 h Bitcoin Overcomes Technical Hurdle; Ethereum Prints 7 Consecutive Green Monthly Candles 1 d Binance Smart Chain (BSC) TVL Reaches $45 Billion, Catching Up Fast to Ethereum 2 d “Institutional Money is Moving Toward Ethereum,” says Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd

With funding remaining flat, it means the rally is being led by spot buying, which makes it more sustainable and less prone to get wiped out by a brutal liquidation.

Open interest on Bitcoin futures also has yet to recover as it is currently at $19.8 billion, down from $27.68 billion on April 13. OI on Ethereum futures meanwhile continues to increase, perched on a record $8.5 billion, up from $2 billion at the beginning of this year.

Amidst all the positive action, hedge funds on CME that have been record short on Bitcoin since late last year to earn all the yield have also decreased their short exposure. Overall, the net short position has fallen to early March level.

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The latest price action has helped Bitcoin surpass the technical hurdle of its 50-day average price. According to traders, Bitcoin’s move above $57,000 is a bullish sign for further continuation, but it needs to be seen if it will be able to maintain this level.

Trader SmartContracter sees the current momentum to take bitcoin to $74,000.

image2

Interest in both Bitcoin and Ethereum continues to grow, especially the second-largest cryptocurrency, which has its big upgrade, London hard fork, with EIP 1559 coming in July. As we reported, Rothschild bought the shares of Grayscale Ethereum Trust for the first time in Q1, and Guggenheim’s CIO shared that money is also flowing into ETH and other credible cryptos.

Assets in Bitcoin products, including ETFs and ETPs, meanwhile have reached a record high of $9 billion at the end of the first quarter, as per ETFGI.

“If you make an investment today or you make an investment in early December like we did, you have to expect multiple 20% to 30% pullbacks in the bull-market phase,” Troy Gayeski of Skybridge Capital said this week on Bloomberg. “But that being said, I mean, the combination of extraordinary supply growth, we still think we’re in the early innings of the adoption cycle.”

Meanwhile, Mike McGlone of Bloomberg continues to see Bitcoin’s diminishing supply combined with the historically low interest rate and a substantial amount of money being pumped into the system to act as catalysts to take it to $100,000.

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Author: AnTy

Jackson, Tennessee Mayor Wants to Start A ‘Cryptocurrency Revolution’ in the City

Jackson, Tennessee Mayor Wants to Start A ‘Cryptocurrency Revolution’ in the City

It has started, after Miami, Jackson is all set to accelerate the adoption of Bitcoin and crypto, which Scott Conger says can “bridge the wealth gap and financially empower people.”

Scott Conger, the mayor of The City of Jackson, Tennessee, has laser eyes now.

Showing his support for Bitcoin, Conger changed his profile picture on Twitter with the hashtag “Crypto.”

The laser eyes came after Conger shared his support for the cryptocurrency industry over the past few days. He is actually calling for bringing crypto adoption to the region.

“Utilizing dollar cost averaging in appreciating assets, like cryptocurrency is one way we bridge the wealth gap and financially empower people. Another reason to bring Crypto adoption to the City Jackson TN,” said Conger in a tweet earlier this week.

Conger has actually been in talks with several people from the crypto space, including David Schwartz, the project director at Litecoin Foundation.

In a separate tweet, while thanking Schwartz for his insights, Conger shared that they have been making progress on the adoption of digital assets in the city.

“The future is bright in Jackson, and Crypto is lighting the way!” he added.

In response to Schwartz looking “forward to helping Jackson become the envy of Tennessee,” Conger said, “Let’s start the cryptocurrency revolution!”

He has constantly been tweeting about bringing crypto and “financial empowerment” to Jackson, which he says is “in a prime position to lead the way” in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption.

Miami has already gone full-on crypto with Mayer Francis Suarez proposing paying city employees with BTC and giving the public the option to pay their taxes in the crypto asset.

Danielle Cohen Higgins, a county commissioner, also introduced a resolution to the Miami-Dade Infrastructure, Operations, and Innovations Committee to create a 13-member cryptocurrency task force to examine all the possibilities.

Working on making Miami “crypto forward,” Suarez has been courting tech entrepreneurs to choose the city over Silicon Valley.

Meanwhile, crypto exchange FTX signed a $135 million to name Miami Heat’s home court, FTX Arena. One of Miami’s biggest nightclubs, E11even, has announced it will allow guests to pay for drinks and tables with crypto.

Not to mention, the Bitcoin conference with speakers including Twitter’s Jack Dorsey, venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya, pro skater Tony Hawk, and Suarez himself has been moved from Los Angeles to Miami

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Following the Stock Market “Tick for Tick,” $1.9T Stimulus Bill Passed & Yields Go Up Again

The cryptocurrency market is continuing the upwards momentum on Monday that started over the weekend.

Bitcoin has made its way above $50,000 while Ether trades over $1,700. The greens in the broad cryptocurrency market have a total market cap surpassing $1.55 trillion.

While the price of Bitcoin has slowed down some in the near term after hitting a new all-time high above $58,300 in February followed by a pullback of 26%, the coins continue to be moved off the cryptocurrency exchanges in the expectation of higher future prices.

While the on-chain movement shows bullish momentum, institutional investors on CME closed their positions, but both longs and shorts.

For the week ending March 6, total open interest for CME Bitcoin plummeted to its lowest levels this year as it shed more than 2500 contracts, as per Market Science’s latest report.

Last week, leveraged funds experienced the most dramatic change as these traders closed both long and short positions; their positioning is now as net-short as it has ever been. Interestingly, asset managers are also net short, which wasn’t seen through most of the recent bull run.

Non-Reportable traders remain less bullish than their average historically while Other Reportable traders have virtually no short exposure, remaining close to record net-long levels as they own over 25% of all long contracts outstanding. “These conditions have exhibited a bullish statistical edge historically,” noted Market Science.

The Macro

In the macro-environment, the bullish news came in the form of the $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill which passed the Senate 50-49 on Saturday. Democrats aim to have the bill signed into law early this week.

“As tough as this moment is, there are brighter days ahead — there really are,” President Joe Biden said at the White House after the bill was passed. “It’s never been a good bet to bet against America.”

The bill will send $1,400 payments to millions of Americans, individuals earning up to $75,000 and couples earning up to $150k based on either 2019 or 2020 tax returns. It would also deliver $300 a week in extra unemployment assistance through Sept. 6.

This has the stock market recovering with S&P 500 up 2.9% and Nasdaq 4% after incurring losses ever since hitting new highs in the second week of February.

Bitcoin has actually been following the stock market ever since February, “almost tick for tick,” notes trader and economist Alex Kruger. Hence, the gains and if the traditional market sees red today, it is likely crypto assets will slide too.

Gold, however, is not having a good Monday as the spot prices fell under $1,690 per ounce while the US dollar Index strengthened above 92.2 thanks to yet another bout of a surge in Treasury yields. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield hit 1.6% on Monday morning, while on the 30-year Treasury bond, it rose to 2.311%. Yields move inversely to prices.

This, however, isn’t good for BTC prices as we have seen for the past couple of weeks.

“Rates impact not only BTC but virtually every asset in the world. As one of the (if not the) most liquid asset class, higher rates mean bonds become more attractive than other assets – money flow from everywhere else into bonds,” said Qiao Wange of DeFi Alliance. “At extreme levels this will crush all risk assets.”

Bitcoin has managed to rally because of its adoption narrative in addition to being the best performing asset.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Sell-Off Over? Bullishness Continues to Permeate the Market

This week, the price of Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster ride. We started with a dump right after hitting a new all-time high last Sunday at about $58,350.

Following the drop, we made several attempts to go back up but only to end up lower and yesterday, we went down further down to $44k.

As of writing, BTC is seeing some relief trading around $46,800 but that’s to be seen if the upward momentum will continue or take us only lower. Trader TheCryptoDog said,

“At this point my assumption is we don’t go lower from here. That can change at the drop of a hat (we’ll see what happens to macro on Monday), but looking at this now I would be more surprised to see BTC sink.”

One caveat is March, the month which in the last six out of seven times have been a red one with an average drawdown of over 14%.

Unlike BTC, Q1 is good for Ethereum which five out of six times ended with significant greens, already it is up 102% YTD despite the losses. This week, it went down to $1,350 during this recent sell-off, even lower than the previous ATH of $1,420.

Bitcoin’s lack of direction, right now, is turning out good for altcoins, leading to a 15% to 30% uptrend. The total market cap has also recovered to $1.455 trillion, adding more than $100 billion in the past 24 hours.

All This Bullishness

While the price action in the market isn’t’ looking bullish, the developments in the market certainly suggest so.

For starters, the first Bitcoin ETF debuted on the TSX last week, Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) continues to see demand and now holds more than 10,000 BTC.

If we look at the premium on the Bitcoin product of the world’s largest digital asset manager, Grayscale which went negative this week, but is expected to be just short-term noise, could actually turn out to be bullish.

Started in late Sept. 2013, “Outside of 2013-2014 this has only occurred 4 times. With fees of 2% and a current discount of 2.5%, BTC can be bought inside the trust cheaper than at market,” noted one analyst.

“Like the last 2 times, does the bull continue?” he added.

Bitcoin miners are also sending bullish signals as they stop their selling and start accumulating BTC. For the first time in two weeks, Miners Position change has turned positive.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator, which is the price sold / price paid, is another one that has gone back to level 1, indicating the bottom on the sell-off.

Not to mention, money-making exchange Coinbase has announced its public listing and got more than $100 billion valuation. This would make the company CEO, Brian Armstrong who previously worked at Airbnb to get rich and join the world’s 500 richest people.

Even more bullish is the news that the House passed its $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package early on Saturday, which will now head to the Senate. Democrats are rushing to approve more aid before unemployment programs expire on March 14.

This time, payments of $1,400 will be made to most individuals, along with the same amount for each dependent. $1,200 stimulus check from last time invested in Bitcoin at the time is currently worth $8,500 and surpassed $10,000 last week.

And just like the last stimulus package, this could propel the market higher.

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Author: AnTy