Bitcoin Sell-Off Over? Bullishness Continues to Permeate the Market

This week, the price of Bitcoin has been on a rollercoaster ride. We started with a dump right after hitting a new all-time high last Sunday at about $58,350.

Following the drop, we made several attempts to go back up but only to end up lower and yesterday, we went down further down to $44k.

As of writing, BTC is seeing some relief trading around $46,800 but that’s to be seen if the upward momentum will continue or take us only lower. Trader TheCryptoDog said,

“At this point my assumption is we don’t go lower from here. That can change at the drop of a hat (we’ll see what happens to macro on Monday), but looking at this now I would be more surprised to see BTC sink.”

One caveat is March, the month which in the last six out of seven times have been a red one with an average drawdown of over 14%.

Unlike BTC, Q1 is good for Ethereum which five out of six times ended with significant greens, already it is up 102% YTD despite the losses. This week, it went down to $1,350 during this recent sell-off, even lower than the previous ATH of $1,420.

Bitcoin’s lack of direction, right now, is turning out good for altcoins, leading to a 15% to 30% uptrend. The total market cap has also recovered to $1.455 trillion, adding more than $100 billion in the past 24 hours.

All This Bullishness

While the price action in the market isn’t’ looking bullish, the developments in the market certainly suggest so.

For starters, the first Bitcoin ETF debuted on the TSX last week, Purpose Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) continues to see demand and now holds more than 10,000 BTC.

If we look at the premium on the Bitcoin product of the world’s largest digital asset manager, Grayscale which went negative this week, but is expected to be just short-term noise, could actually turn out to be bullish.

Started in late Sept. 2013, “Outside of 2013-2014 this has only occurred 4 times. With fees of 2% and a current discount of 2.5%, BTC can be bought inside the trust cheaper than at market,” noted one analyst.

“Like the last 2 times, does the bull continue?” he added.

Bitcoin miners are also sending bullish signals as they stop their selling and start accumulating BTC. For the first time in two weeks, Miners Position change has turned positive.

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator, which is the price sold / price paid, is another one that has gone back to level 1, indicating the bottom on the sell-off.

Not to mention, money-making exchange Coinbase has announced its public listing and got more than $100 billion valuation. This would make the company CEO, Brian Armstrong who previously worked at Airbnb to get rich and join the world’s 500 richest people.

Even more bullish is the news that the House passed its $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package early on Saturday, which will now head to the Senate. Democrats are rushing to approve more aid before unemployment programs expire on March 14.

This time, payments of $1,400 will be made to most individuals, along with the same amount for each dependent. $1,200 stimulus check from last time invested in Bitcoin at the time is currently worth $8,500 and surpassed $10,000 last week.

And just like the last stimulus package, this could propel the market higher.

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Author: AnTy

Users Asked to Return Bitcoin Purchased After Glitch Drops The Price to $6,000 On This Exchange

Users Asked to Return Bitcoin Purchased After Glitch Drops The Price to $6,000 On This Exchange

  • The Philippines-based crypto exchange, Philippines Digital Asset Exchange, or PDAX, experienced a ‘serious glitch’ causing a huge price discrepancy on Bitcoin (BTC) prices, which dropped to $6,000 on Feb 16.
  • The exchange halted trading and is asking users to return BTC bought during the 88% price collapse.

On Tuesday last week, the largest Philippines-based crypto exchange, PDAX, suffered a glitch due to the increased user traffic and volumes on the exchange. This led to a system outage, causing the price of Bitcoin to collapse to the $6,000 mark, allowing users to buy the top crypto at a massive discount.

Several unknown users on the platform we’re able to cash in on this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity’ making thousands of dollars during that period. PDAX exchange then stopped all trading services on the exchange for 36 hours for a maintenance period before bringing the platform back live on February 18th.

However, in a few hours, the glitch was still active; several users could withdraw their ‘discounted’ Bitcoins up to their set withdrawal limits in a day. In an email sent to the users, PDAX demanded these lucky traders to return the crypto, threatening them with a legal suit if they don’t.

In a press conference held on Tuesday to explain the system outages, CEO Nichel Gaba stated increased trading volumes as the primary reason that the exchange experienced its outage. He further stated that the cause of the huge drop in Bitcoin’s price rose from “unfunded orders” (when one side of an order is not funded) being matched with buyers. Gaba said,

“Because the buyer was able to purchase assets from an unfunded order, the buyer can then resell the same asset via the order book system, resulting in a chain of transactions. Thus the resulting balances of users are a mix of unfunded and funded orders.”

The exchange has since demanded users who bought the discounted BTC return them or face legal action. Gaba agreed that “this was the right thing to do” to protect its integrity and protect the market’s interest. Gaba explained,

“Understandably, a lot of users will feel upset they were able to buy what they thought an order was there for Bitcoin at very low prices.”

“But unfortunately, the underlying Bitcoins were never in the possession of the exchange, so there’s never really anything there to be bought or sold, unfortunately.”

PDAX obtained its crypto exchange clearance license back in 2018 from the Philippines’ Central Bank, allowing crypto to Philippines pesos (PHP) conversion. The exchange was the first to offer users direct fiat to crypto trading, including other top cryptos such as Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), XRP, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

PDAX has grown into an institutional investment hub with top firms getting digital assets exposure through the firm. To boost its roots, PDAX received an undisclosed amount of financial support from ConsenSys and BitMEX to boost its “sphere of influence” in the South-east Asia region.

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Author: Lujan Odera

Coinbase Premium Tanks to an All-Time Low During Bitcoin Sell-Off

But soon it skyrocketed to nearly +$500.

The price of cryptocurrencies continued its downwards journey until a good bunch of longs was liquidated, and the price of Bitcoin went under $50k.

BTC went down as low as $48,250, down 27.5% from Sunday’s all-time high around $58,300.

With this latest dip, the leading digital currency has turned the old ATH of $46,700 into new support, noted analyst and trader Rekt Capital. However, the trader says this is not a Bitcoin correction because, historically, the trend tends to between 30% to 40%.

“But there are many more dips along the way which are much shallower than -30%,” added Rekt Capital.

This pullback pushed Coinbase Premium, the gap between Coinbase Pro price (USD pair) and Binance price (USDT pair) to an all-time low of -$1,020. Soon after, this premium skyrocketed to +486. Coinbase whales are actually the ones driving the market, and they took this opportunity to accumulate more BTC.

MicroStrategy and Tesla also availed Coinbase’s services to make their Bitcoin purchases.

This means, “Even if there are more corrections, it’s unlikely to go down below 44k,” said Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant.


Source: CryptoQuant

While after a wild rally that pushed us past the $1 trillion dollar market cap, correction is sometimes expected, we are also to blame for this correction because last week, the Crypto Twitter (CT) went crazy with red lasers, quipped another trader Josh Rager.

What actually exacerbated this sell-off was the degens that were trading with high leverage. In the last 12 hours, $3.64 billion worth of liquidation happened. In the past 24 hours, it was nearly $4 billion, as per Bybt.

Binance lead in these liquidations, accounting for $1.58 billion of them, followed by Huobi ($878.53 million), OKEx ($426.63 million), and Bybt ($322.49 million). Bitfinex and Deribit saw the least amount of liquidations at 8.74 million and $55.14 million, respectively.


Source: ByBt

The liquidation helped the funding rate on BTC perpetual contracts to come down between 0.0068% on Deribit and 0.0686% on Binance. On OKEx, funding is negative.

For now, the market has recovered from the lows as Bitcoin now trades around $52,644.

Amidst the red market, good news came from Vancouver-based cannabis company Vinergy that announced the expansion of its investment policy to include Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as the “influx of investment and increased institutional adoption is creating a highly lucrative opportunity.”

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Author: AnTy

BTC Breaks Yet Another Level, k, as Elon Musk says, Bitcoin and Ethereum ‘Seem High’

Since making a similar remark on his electric car company, the price of TSLA shares has surged 400%. Tesla CEO is also busy mining his favorite cryptocurrency Dogecoin as a “fun family project.”

The market value of Bitcoin hit the milestone of $1 trillion on Friday as the price of the digital asset broke past many levels.

Today, we went even higher, past $57,000, aiming for the sweet round number of $60k now. As of writing, BTC/USD has been comfortably trading above $57k, with a market cap of $1.06 billion.

With Bitcoin continuing to roar higher, Tesla CEO Elon Musk threw some love at Bitcoin with yet again the picture of Bitcoin in his Twitter profile, but “Just for a day.”

Musk also took a jab at gold bug Peter Schiff, who thinks and talks about Bitcoin day and night, all the time, and this time as well saying gold is real money and better than both fiat and Bitcoin, referring to Musk calling “Bitcoin is almost as BS as fiat money.”

“An email saying you have gold is not the same as having gold. You might as well have crypto. Money is just data that allows us to avoid the inconvenience of barter. That data, like all data, is subject to latency & error. The system will evolve to that which minimizes both.”

Musk explained to Schiff, adding, “That said, BTC & ETH do seem high lol.”

Musk made a similar infamous comment regarding his electric car company back in May last year, “Tesla stock price is too high imo.” Since then, the price of TSLA shares has surged 400%.

Besides Bitcoin, the founder and CEO of SpaceX is also busy mining his favorite cryptocurrency, Dogecoin.

“I just set up some little Doge mining rigs with my kids. It was fun,” said Musk on Saturday. He also shared that he has been using Antminer L3+ rigs to mine the meme coin, which was bought off eBay.

“Not really economic, but it was a fun family project,” he added.

The Next Major Milestone

When it comes to Bitcoin, the leading digital currency is enjoying more than a 92% uptrend in 2021 so far.

Despite the latest round of gains, over 17% this week, the funding rates on Bitcoin perpetual contracts haven’t heated up, currently between 0.0158% on Deribit and 0.1457% on Huobi, as per Viewbase.

While the Perp-spot basis is flat, the basis of the future is sky high while implied volatility is falling and 25-day skew rising, noted trader and economist Alex Kruger adding, “leverage is very high, but inflows are gargantuan.”

Now that the first milestone for $1 trillion has been hit, the next major milestone ahead for Bitcoin is surpassing the market cap of gold which is about $10 trillion. This will put the price of Bitcoin around $500,000.

Qiao Wang of DeFi Alliance has a 90% conviction that it will happen in our lifetime but will this happen during this hype cycle, that’s to be seen.

Before that, going above $100k will make it the world’s largest asset, dethroning Apple. The hopium from Su Zhu, the CEO of Three Arrows Capital,

“This is not yet another cycle; this is the End of Cycles. The one where after BTC flippens gold, it doesn’t flip back. The one where web3 supersedes web2. Where culture is collected and accrued digitally instead of physically. Where life is lived mindfully rather than mindlessly.”

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Author: AnTy

JPMorgan Strategists Find Current Bitcoin Price “Unsustainable,” says Retail Demand Is Pushing It

JPMorgan Strategists Find Current Bitcoin Price “Unsustainable,” says Retail Demand Is Pushing It

The retail demand, which has been strong since January, is showing no signs of abating.

As Bitcoin surpasses $52,000, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists are back at calling the current price of the cryptocurrency “unsustainable,” saying the volatility needs to ease to prevent the rally from fizzling out.

The market cap of Bitcoin has reached above $977 billion, rising 1.8x in just over two months.

In the last five months, the market value of the leading cryptocurrency has risen by more than $700 billion while the aggregate institutional inflow was only around $11 billion, strategists led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a note Tuesday.

It may be limited supply and the retail demand, which “remains strong with no signs of abating,” pushing up the price, they said.

While there is an increase in interest from real money investors, speculative investors seek to front-run it. And retail inflows have significantly magnified the institutional flow, notes the strategists.

Not only the US retail impulse, strong since January, has been a driving force for bitcoin but also for equities.

“Movements since January this year appear to have been more influenced by speculative flows,” the team said.


Source: JPMorgan Report

This “remarkable” jump means that Bitcoin has “already” surpassed gold in risk capital terms, and looking at the biggest bitcoin and gold funds — the 3m realized vol for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust stands at 113% vs. 16% for GLD, the largest gold ETF by AUM.

Given that bitcoin, at current market prices, has more than doubled relative to gold in risk capital terms, JPMorgan finds Bitcoin prices “unsustainable.” The last time they felt the same was when BTC was at $48k.

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Author: AnTy

Traders Can Now Bet if Ethereum’s Price Will Be Over $25k in December on Deribit

Traders Can Now Bet if Ethereum’s Price Will Be Over $25k in December on Deribit

3.5 mln ETH options contracts traded on Deribit in Jan. 2021, up 18% from Dec. 2020. OI on Eth options also surged to 1.8 billion.

Not just Ether price expecting $10k or $20k, now people can also bet on the price of ETH going above $25k on Deribit.

The popular options market has added new ETH options contracts with a $25,000 strike price in the Dec. 21st expiry in line with its “introduction policy.”

This just means Deribit has made a market available to bet on ETH price at $25k in December; a trader can take either the long side of it or the short side of it. One can buy a ‘call’ option if they believe the price will move higher and buy ‘put’ options if they believe the price is going to fall.

Just yesterday, Ether made a new all-time high at $1,575 and has entered into its price discovery.

The leading options platform in the cryptocurrency market, Deribit, had 3.5 million ETH contracts traded in January. In a “groundbreaking record,” the options open interest also exceeded USD 10 billion, with OI on ETH contracts surging from $800 million to 1.8 billion.

Compared to 3,529,404 ETH options contracts traded in January 2021, up 18% versus December 2020, 800,690 BTC options contracts were traded in the same month, which increased 21% from the previous month on Deribit.


“As more ETH get staked, and institutional investors are expanding their crypto holdings, bullish ETH market sentiment persists,” noted Deribit in its January institutional newsletter.

Options are getting increasingly popular in the cryptocurrency market, which in turn is increasing the effect of the contract expiries on the underlying asset’s price. Deribit’s total options turnover was also $31.9 billion, a whopping 90% jump from December.

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Author: AnTy

Institutions Allocating 6.5% to Bitcoin Could Drive BTC Price to Hit $500,000: Ark Invest

Institutions Allocating 6.5% to Bitcoin Could Drive BTC Price to Hit $500,000: Ark Invest

Ark Invest, the New York-based Investment Management LLC, has featured Bitcoin as one of the disruptive innovations that macro-focused investors should keep a close eye on. The firm published its annual ‘Big Idea’ report yesterday, highlighting the growing market trends and potential innovations that could take the world’s center stage in this decade.

Per Ark’s report, Bitcoin and other crypto technologies such as the DeFi ecosystem have grown significantly in their fundamental value proposition. The management advisors estimate that the value of BTC can shoot up by $40,000, should all S&P firms allocate 1% of their cash to Bitcoin. An additional allocation to boost the position to 6.5% could see Bitcoin’s price skyrocket to $500,000.

The report further highlights that BTC prices are more fundamentally driven than the 2017 bull-run when its Google searches had hit all-time highs. Notably, 60% of the coins in circulation have not been moved for more than a year, signaling what Ark refers to as a long-term outlook by Bitcoin investors.

Institutions Are Getting Ready for Bitcoin

With public companies like Microstrategy and Square investing their cash reserves on BTC, Ark notes that they set the trend for other institutions to hedge against inflation. The analysis estimates that Bitcoin’s market cap could scale from $500 billion to $1-$10 trillion within the next five to ten years. That said, capital allocators ought to factor in the cost opportunity of ignoring BTC as an emerging asset class. The report reads,

“Untethered from traditional rules and regulations and generally uncorrelated to the behavior of other asset classes, bitcoin seems to have earned a strategic allocation in well-diversified portfolios. During the past decade, bitcoin is the only major asset with consistently low correlations to traditional asset classes.”

Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has also increased to the point of comparison with large-cap stocks. The leading cryptocurrency market cap enjoys an average daily trading volume of $6 billion, a figure that Ark estimates could grow past the U.S equities volume and FX market within 4 and 6 years, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin open market interest hit a new all-time high on the CME to total $1 billion as of Q4, 2020. Ark noted that this indicates the crypto market growth given that investors can now access BTC in sophisticated means.

BTC Portfolio Allocation

Ark ran a Monte-carlo simulation on 1 million portfolios diversified with various asset classes for the portfolio allocation criteria. The efficient frontier captured optimal allocation positions to be between 2.55% to 6.55%,

“Based on daily returns across asset classes during the past 10 years, our analysis suggests that allocations to bitcoin should range from 2.55% when minimizing volatility to 6.55% when maximizing returns.”

The report also touched on Bitcoin’s value proposition as a gateway to other crypto niche products, especially DeFi. While the innovations are still young, Ark mentioned that they are potentially the new wave of financial experimentation.

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Author: Edwin Munyui

Fundstrat Raises ETH Target Price to $10,500; “The Best Risk/Reward Investment Play In Crypto”

Fundstrat Raises Ethereum Price Target to $10,500; Calls It “The Best Risk/Reward Investment Play In Crypto”

The second-largest cryptocurrency could surge more than 700% from its current level to $10,500, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors LLC.

The prediction is made by digital asset strategist of Fundstrat, David Grider, who wrote, Ether is “the best risk/reward investment play in crypto.” “Blockchain computing may be the future of the cloud,” added Grider, who sees setbacks in the Ethereum 2.0 network upgrade or a crypto bear market as the risks.

The first phase of ETH 2.0, the Beacon Chain, already has 2.57 million ETH locked in its deposit contract. Calling the launch “a resounding success,” developer Danny Ryan says, thus far, it has proved to be “stable and robust.” Ryan in a blog post on Wednesday wrote,

“The successful launch of the beacon chain was a huge milestone for engineers, stakers, and the community at large. We now have the foundation for Ethereum’s sustainable future. Although there are many moving pieces and innumerable winding threads, across the board, the Ethereum community has shown its unbelievable resilience and ability to deliver.”

Besides the network upgrade, Grider’s prediction is also based on the popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi), a growing sector that has over $23 billion in total value locked (TVL).

This moon target came a day after Ether hit its all-time high at $1,440 before seeing a decline today in tandem with Bitcoin. Eth’s new high came with an “overheated” derivatives market seen in the recent high funding rate.


Eth’s more than fivefold gains last year beats Bitcoin’s uptrend, which quadrupled in 2020. The crypto market expects ETH to outperform Bitcoin yet again, as it did during the 2017 bull cycle as well.

Crypto derivatives platform Deribit actually added ETH options contracts with a strike price of $10k in the first week of January 2021. On Tuesday, Deribit added another ETH options contract at a strike price of $20,000 with the December expiry.

On Feb. 8, the regulated platform, CME, will also launch the Ethereum futures contract, which is further expected to bring in institutional investors by legitimizing the cryptocurrency for institutions to make it part of their investment portfolio.

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Author: AnTy

Mempool & Bitcoin Fees Holding Steady as BTC Payments Hit New Highs

Bitcoin price has become range-bound around the $36,000 level, and with this lull in the action, the average cost to send BTC is also calming down.

From the 2nd highest average fees level in history at $17.5 on Jan. 12, the fees have decreased to the current $9, as per Blockchair. The highest this fee was during the Dec. 2017 peak of $20,000 at around $60.

Interestingly, despite Bitcoin being on a wild run that saw payments hit an all-time high these past weeks, breaking all the previous bull run records, average fees only went this high. Mempool transaction count, the total number of unconfirmed transactions, was also nowhere near the ATH.

transaction fees


“It’s astonishing how well the mempool is holding up and how comparatively low the transaction fees are,” noted Sergej Kotliar, CEO Bitrefill. According to him, when Bitcoin price moons, it is unlikely that fees will reach 2017 levels of bad.

These low fees are the result of segwit, fee estimation, Lightning Network, stablecoins moving to other chains, and of course, most cryptocurrency exchanges implementing payment batching now. And while Coinbase pays top-dollar fees for the next block confirmation, you only pay 1/100th of that because they batch 100 at a time.

This, Kotliar says, points to “an intrinsic aspect of centralization vs. decentralization – centralized solutions at scale are more efficient, decentralization comes at a cost.”

Strong Network

While the network is still cheap with low congestion levels, other metrics have been going for new highs — both hash rate and difficulty of Bitcoin mining are at peak.

In the world of mining, a lot of development has been happening with Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital now officially mining Bitcoin. The company announced the launch of its miner financial services, including lending, investment, and risk management offerings.

The mining branch of the firm, which has been under development since before October, will be led by Amanda Fabiano, former director of mining at Fidelity, who says this will help Galaxy “deeply understand and solve for the financial needs of miners.”

Even the largest exchange in the US, Coinbase’s venture arm, is investing in mining software and services company Titan, which is currently in the beta testing phase. Mining giant Core Scientific is among the clients testing the pool.

Meanwhile, Barry Silbert is working on bringing BTC mining to North America through Foundry, which recently launched an advisory service to help power companies, government entities, and others get involved with Bitcoin mining.

This month, Foundry placed 14,000 Whatsminer MBT units and launched “what will soon become the largest U.S.-based bitcoin mining pool. It is time for bitcoin hashrate to come to the U.S.,” said Silbert, founder, and CEO of Digital Currency Group, the parent company of Grayscale, Genesis, and TradeBlock.

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Author: AnTy

After Taking Profits, the Infamous $36k Bitcoin Options Call Buyers Reposition to Higher Levels

Deribit meanwhile added Bitcoin options contracts with a $400k strike price with Dec. 21 expiry. Amidst this Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital is calling for $115,000 by August 2021.

Bitcoin call options buying and selling is the name of the game, with short-dated calls in high demand. The two particularly active calls have been for Jan. 29 with $32k and $52k strike price.

Easier this week, the $36 call buyers took profits as we saw in the 28% drop in the spot price of Bitcoin. Until this week, gamma on the Jan21 36k calls was “very significant,” but as most of the $36k calls got unwound, they were no longer the largest pin for Jan expiry.

A sharp move has been rather made in options skew as they repositioned to higher levels with another very large Jan21 pin on the $52k strike, $850mln notional, noted data source Skew.

The largest open interest (OI) for Jan. 29 is now switched from $36k to $52k, and switching has been noted to 56k, 64k, and 72k strikes as well.

“Jan15 weekly expiry will bring further swings to the market and gamma effects only to prove meaningful if spot breaks out higher, otherwise impact will diminish heading into month-end,” noted Denis Vinokourov of Bequant.

Amidst this, crypto derivatives platform Deribit today added Bitcoin options contracts with a $400k strike price with Dec. 21 expiry.

Since December, with the wild rally came the options contracts with strike prices going from $100k, $150k, $160k, and recently $300k before the $400k calls and puts options today.

Bitcoin’s run-up from $3,800 in March 2020 to $42,000 last Friday has also brought forth the predictions that call for $115,000 by August 2021, which has been made by Dan Morehead, founder and CEO of crypto investment firm Pantera Capital at a conference call on Jan. 12.

“Is bitcoin overvalued? I would say no. […] Bitcoin has spent three years well below its long-term compound annual growth trend line, it’s still below it, and although Bitcoin has rallied a great deal over the last six months, I think it is fairly valued.”

Dan Morehead Founder & CEO of Pantera Capital

While the crypto market continues to get more bullish with each passing day, some regulators still can’t wrap their heads around this innovation.

The latest one being European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who called Bitcoin a “highly speculative asset,” which, according to her, is conducting some “funny business.”

While Lagarde said Bitcoin enabling “totally reprehensible money-laundering activity,” the Crypto Twitter pointed to how she herself has been convicted of criminal charges over massive government payout but not only did she avoid jail but even get to keep her job after a guilty verdict.

Interestingly amidst this, the government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), one of Pakistan’s four provinces, launched two state-owned Bitcoin mining farms — one of the first instances of a govt. using its own funds to mine BTC.

Much like other counties, while Pakistan’s stance on Bitcoin is stuck in bureaucracy, local governments have been making way for cryptos.

As seen in Miami, Mayor Francis Suarez is working on making it “the most crypto competitive city on the planet.” We’ve always been known as a financial hub,” Suarez said.

“The capital is here. The financial banking sophistication is here. We’ve got to integrate the crypto too, and I think that part is lagging a little bit, from New York, but I think we can do that fast.”

Francis Suarez Mayor of Miami, FL

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Author: AnTy