Bitcoin Address Metrics Are Looking Terrible; Regulated vs Unregulated Spread Tightening

Bitcoin’s mere 13% YTD gain is still beating gold’s -4.70% performance; however, S&P 500 is now leading benign up 16.32% so far this year.

Though Bitcoin’s price dropped to $31,600, it simply remains within its range of $30k-$40k with no end in sight to this dull crab market.

Retail isn’t involved in the market anymore, with volatility and volume in the crypto market at their lowest levels. Daily active addresses halved, and new address growth is currently as low as it was immediately after the 2018 crash, said Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments.

Not to mention, the whales with over 1,000 BTC that dumped on the market at the top are still not buying. This, according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo,

“Could mean exchanges depleting inventory, or whale population is reducing, or just wallet consolidation. Nothing is definitive.”

However, Edwards noted that while Bitcoin addresses metrics look terrible, they can change quickly.

This lack of retail has the gap between the basis on the regulated futures market and the unregulated futures market now closing as well.

At one point, Bitcoin annualized daily basis on leading crypto and derivatives platform Binance was 41.4% in mid-April, around the time the crypto asset was near its all-time high of nearly $65,000.

When it comes to the 3-month annualized basis, throughout Q4, 2020, the CME futures traded at a slight premium to the unregulated market suggesting a high institutional appetite for the leading cryptocurrency, noted Arcane Research.

But as Bitcoin surpassed the previous ATH $20k, a significant gap occurred between the unregulated and regulated market.

This, however, wasn’t caused by a diminishing contango on CME but by the rapid growth in the contango in the unregulated markets where traders had a solid long bias.

This regulated vs. unregulated spread reached its peak on April 14th at 33% on the day BTC price reached its current global peak. But since then, several massive liquidation events occurred, and the appetite for upside exposure calmed, leading the spread to tighten towards a more sustainable level.


The good thing is that with the price range getting tighter and tighter with Bollinger bands coiling around the price, volatility is expected to pick up. But it is to be seen just in which direction the price will move.

Not to mention, China FUD never seems to stop. This week, Anhui province in the country was the latest one to crack down on Bitcoin mining. The region, located close to Shanghai, plans to shut down all crypto mining projects within the next three years due to a power supply shortage.

Meanwhile, in this ongoing weakness, Bitcoin’s YTD gains have come down to 13%, and while it was beating S&P 500’s gains by several times, the traditional index is currently up 16.32% this year so far.

However, the digital gold is still beating the precious metal, which is down 4.70% YTD while recording positive returns of 2.50% this month, unlike Bitcoin’s 7.87% losses in July. This has the rolling 60-day correlation between Bitcoin and bullion tuning negative.

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Author: AnTy

Bitwise Launches Crypto Industry Innovators ETF After a Green Light from the SEC

The ETF won’t be holding Bitcoin or Ethereum directly but tracks the performance of public companies that are involved in the cryptocurrency sector.

Bitwise, a digital asset manager with $1.5 billion in assets under management as of May 7, 2021, is launching the Crypto Industry Innovators ETF (NYSE: BITQ) that provides exposure to public companies that are involved in the Bitcoin and cryptocurrency sector. The ETF won’t be holding Bitcoin or Ethereum directly.

With this, it has become the first ETF with crypto in it to be approved by the SEC, while a Bitcoin ETF has yet to make it despite several, at least eleven, companies interested and having filed their applications.

But Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, is hopeful that SEC is moving closer to approving one.

“The bitcoin ETF journey has been almost a decade long,” Horsley told CNN. “But I think it will be possible. This is a big milestone for us.”

BITQ meanwhile seeks to track the Bitwise Crypto Industry Innovators 30 Index, which captures pure-play companies engaged in the crypto sector and has at least $100 million of liquid digital assets on their balance sheet.

Also, these companies derive at least 75% of their revenue from either directly holding crypto assets or serving the crypto market.

It basically tracks the performance of crypto stocks and not coins. A similar ETF (VanEck Vectors Digital Assets Equity – DAPP) has been launched by VanEck as well that trades on Nasdaq, London Stock Exchange, and Deutsche Boerse.

“Until recently, most great crypto innovators were private companies, but that’s changing rapidly. Today, there’s a growing set of public companies capitalizing on crypto,” said Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise.

Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN), which recently went public, accounts for 11.63% of the index’s weightage joined by MicroStrategy, Galaxy Digital, Riot Blockchain, Voyager Digital, Canaan, Northern Data, Hive Blockchain, Bitfarm, and Marathon Digital Asset Holdings, along with PayPal, Square, Silvergate, and others.

“Over the past few years, many investors have had to watch from the sidelines as a select few have reaped the rewards of stellar cryptocurrency returns.”

“With BITQ, our aim is to make crypto investment opportunities available through traditional investing platforms and a familiar, liquid, and cost-effective ETF.”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Price to Rise as it Captures Bigger Share of ‘Anti-fiat Market’ Driven by ‘Stimulated Environment’

“Strong” crypto performance leads to rising interest among institutions, including university endowments and foundations, a trend that will continue “at an accelerated pace,” says experts. As for the govt. banning Bitcoin, “Crypto Mom,” says that would be “foolish.”

Bitcoin is trading above $60,000, giving off strong bullish signals with traders getting in on this action.

According to Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist for BCA Research’s Counterpoint product, the price of Bitcoin will rise as it becomes a bigger share of what he calls the $15 trillion anti-fiat market, currently dominated by gold.

“So long as we have a fiat money system, there will be demand for an ‘anti-fiat’ asset that is a hedge against a debasement of the fiat money system,” said Joshi, who called cryptocurrencies “the new vigilantes to prevent rampant inflation.”

Currently, Bitcoin accounts for 10% of this anti-fiat market but, “as this share doubles or trebles, it arithmetically requires a doubling or trebling of cryptocurrency prices.”

He recommends investors to hold $1 of crypto for every $3 of gold, which implies 25% of the precious metal market, putting BTC at $120k.

Tipping Point

The prices are rising as the institutionalization of the crypto space gains speed.

During a MarketWatch virtual panel discussion, “How to Invest in Crypto,” Tom Jessop, head of Fidelity Digital Assets at Fidelity Investments, said the maturation and adoption of digital assets as a class of investments would continue “at an accelerated pace.”

According to him, ultralow interest rate and easy-money policies helped drive momentum into bitcoin, which are increasingly being seen as alternatives to assets like bonds that offer meager yields.

“Pandemic, quite frankly, was a catalyst for institutional adoption, and specifically bitcoin and the narrative, or use-case, around digital gold,” Jessop said. And “we’re not going to get out of this stimulated environment anytime soon,” he added. “I think we’ve reached a tipping point.”

As Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, told MarketWatch, “We really believe that we’ll look back five years from now, and it will be deemed fiduciarily imprudent to have zero exposure to digital assets.”

With Bitcoin becoming a trillion-dollar asset and total crypto market cap surging past $2.1 trillion, “you can’t ignore it anymore,” Yusko said. “I really think we are at an inflection point.”

According to him, crypto performance has been “so strong” that even a small allocation can make a big difference. And Yusko has seen a rising interest among institutional investors, including university endowments and foundations.

A Good Regulatory Framework

When it comes to the regulatory front, it might not be of big significance as SEC commissioner Hester Peirce says it would be “foolish” to ban Bitcoin.

“I think we were past that point (of banning Bitcoin in the US) very early on because you’d have to shut down the internet.”

“I don’t see how you could ban it. You could certainly make the effort. It would be very hard to stop people from doing it.”

“So I think it would be a foolish thing for the government to try to do that.”

According to her, technology is likely to outpace the government’s attempt to limit the use of BTC.

During the panel discussion, while reiterating that the US remains “behind the curve” in regulating crypto, Peirce, aka “Crypto Mom,” said Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman might push it in the right direction.

“I’m optimistic with a new chairman coming in with a deep knowledge of these markets that is something we could do together—build a good regulatory framework.”

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Author: AnTy

USD Spoils the Party as Bitcoin, Precious Metals, & Stock Market Record Massive Reversals

After last week’s crazy performance, markets are experiencing a massive reversal on the first day of the week.

Starting with Bitcoin, the digital asset had made a yet new all-time high just last night, or for some early Monday morning, at about $24,300 amidst the heightened institutional interest.

But after surging 28% in just last week and breaking multiple levels, today it is bleeding red.

Dropping just under $22,400, BTC/USD rebounded some and is trading around $23,050, down about 2.5% on the back of $5.32 billion in ‘real’ volume.

In tandem with Bitcoin BTC -4.74% Bitcoin / USD BTCUSD $ 22 930,0532
-1,086.88 -4.74
Volume 47.02 b Change -1,086.88 Open $22 930,0532 Circulating 18.58 m Market Cap 425.98 b
1 h Crypto Exchange EXMO Hacked; BTC, ETH, XRP, ZEC, USDT, and ETC Stolen By Attacker
, altcoins are falling even harder.

ETH has gone down 6% to nearly $600 while Litecoin fell 11%, Bitcoin Cash 9%, Chainlink and XRP 8%, and Polkadot, Stellar, Tron, and Cardano are in the loss by over 7%.

More Volatility

This price action over the weekend was actually led by retail investors than institutional investors. The consistent decline in OI shows that institutional investors were taking profits and missed out on the latest rally.

As per CME’s latest report, asset managers’ long positions fell from 544 to 492, while short positions increased from 11 to 26. Leveraged funds’ long positions declined from 4,365 to 3,946, along with the short positions that declined from 9,354 to 8,702. Non-reportable accounts also increased in short positions from 506 to 606, while long positions fell from 3,403 to 3,134.

The jump in price came on the back of the high volume, which is rising rapidly. The futures market has been particularly active, with the aggregate weekly volume of BTC futures hitting $270 billion across derivatives exchanges. Open interest (OI) also reached a new ATH of $8.9 billion on Saturday.

This bullish price action has the BTC perpetual swaps price exceeding the index price with funding rates hitting a peak; excessive funding rates indicate rising leverage. With quarterly futures and options settlement coming up this Friday, more volatility is expected.

Other Markets

Much like digital gold, the risk-off market has precious metals, also having a bad day. Gold fell 2.7% to $1,854 before finding support around $1,874, for now. Silver meanwhile crashed over 9% to just under 25; currently, it is around 26.

S&P 500 futures plunged 2.5% on the first day of the week, right after the Index made a new ATH at 3,722 just before the weekend. Tesla fell 6.3% in pre-market trading on its first day on the S&P 500 index, after catapulting 731% this year.

Today’s winner is the US dollar, which breached above 91, from Friday’s low of 89.7. The USD is gaining against several currencies after European nations began imposing travel bans on the UK after it reported a more-infectious and “out of control” coronavirus variant.

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Author: AnTy

Genesis Report Shows Investors’ Varying Views on Bitcoin’s Value By 2030

Much has been said about Bitcoin and its recent price rally. The asset’s performance has drawn praise and criticism alike, with multiple speculations floating around on what could happen soon.

While proponents believe this is the beginning of a march towards a six-figure valuation, detractors claim that it is just another bubble waiting to drag investors down. However, a new report shows that many investors are feeling more conservative in their outlook towards it.

A Great Year for Investors

Genesis Mining published its Bitcoin Investor Prediction for 2020. The report shows a varying view of what investors expect to happen to BTC. While some investors are bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term potential, others remain conservative with their predictions.

Genesis Mining started on an explanatory note, giving reasons why Bitcoin has rallied so much in 2020 despite the pandemic. The firm highlighted three reasons: investors’ desire for a safe haven asset, increased institutional adoption, and the decentralized finance (DeFi) market growth.

Genesis Mining also sought the opinion of other Bitcoin investors. The goal was to gain insights into why and how these investors think. Questions asked included their investment level, when they decided to join the Bitcoin market, and why they chose to take the plunge.

Not So Bullish on Long-Term Price

While these questions provided different insights into who the investors were, their price predictions were quite startling. Despite the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s ability to blitz through alternative assets in the coming years, only 17 percent of surveyed investors expect BTC to surpass $50,000 in value by 2030.

As Genesis’ report showed, there was no visible consensus concerning where Bitcoin’s price will be in the next decade. However, about 16 percent of investors see Bitcoin oscillating around the $10,000 to $20,000 price range.

In general, only 50.2 percent of investors believe that Bitcoin will have risen above the $20,000 mark by 2030.

Those who held incredibly bearish positions gave several reasons for their views. These included the threat of stringent regulations and a possible ban on Bitcoin’s use. They also mentioned reduced market hype and the possibility of CBDCs replacing BTC.

The bulls believe increased adoption and declining trust in traditional currencies would be instrumental to Bitcoin’s rise.

Such a disparity also appears to be the distinction between this rally and the 2017 bull’s run. Investors are more realistic in their predictions than blindly thinking that the gravy train will keep moving.

While the opinions on Bitcoin’s exact value varied, there was more consensus about whether it is the best asset class.

As the Genesis report showed, 66.3 percent claimed that the asset is a better investment option than the dollar. 52.3 percent believe that the asset will bring higher returns than real estate, and 54.5 percent claim the asset beats the United States stock market.

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Author: Jimmy Aki

Digital Assets Beat Traditional Assets by a Wide Margin & Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin

In 2020 to date, Bitcoin has seen a positive performance of 80% and Ethereum 217%.

With these gains, digital currencies are leading this year, with both the top digital assets outperforming traditional asset classes, that too by a wide margin.

Source: TradeBlock

Clearly, Ether has enjoyed much higher performance than Bitcoin, just yesterday it also caught up with BTC’s latest move. ETH went to $420 and is currently trading around this level only.

The realized price of Ether, the average price for each ETH at the time it last moved on-chain, actually hit a 21-month high, at $246, a level not seen since January 2019. In the past six months, it has increased by 21%.

According to one quant trader, benign bearish on the network, which is the center of the fast-growing DeFi and stablecoin space, just doesn’t make sense.

“I get not being long ETH, but I don’t get why anyone would be short ETH against what is to me the single most important protocol upgrade and token incentives change since the beginning of Ethereum in 2014,” said Qiao Wang.

Outperforming Bitcoin

It has been because of DeFi and stablecoins crazy growth this year, which saw Ethereum beating Bitcoin not just in terms of price but also in transaction volume as it transacted two times more value than BTC daily.

“Ethereum’s progress has been so incredible that it will likely becomes the first public blockchain ever to settle $1 trillion in a year,” said Ryan Watkins, a researcher at Messari.

ETH vs BTC Daily Transactions
Source: Messari

Much of this growing activity has been because of stablecoins, especially ERC-20 USDT, with Tether alone doing more volume daily, nearly double, than Bitcoin.

When it comes to DeFi, Yield farming phenomena and decentralized exchanges (DEX) play a big part. DEXs now comprise 13.6% of total volumes from all exchanges (CEX+DEX). Uniswap and Curve did more than $20 billion in combined volume last month, resulting in a boom in on-chain liquidity on Ethereum.

However, as Ethereum becomes the “epicenter of crypto finance,” it comes at the cost of extremely high fees pricing out retail users and pushing some apps out too.

And this allows alternative platforms to gain attention and adoption. According to Messari, 5 layer 1 alternatives raised a combined $138 million over the quarter.

“The next 12 months could come to define the smart contract market as almost every high-profile Ethereum competitor will be live by year-end. And these networks are barrelling towards a head-to-head battle with Ethereum’s bevy Layer-2 scaling solutions,” said Wilson Withiam of Messari.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Losses Big Time Both Inside & Outside the Crypto Market This Month

In another repeat performance, Bitcoin is uptrending towards $12,000. After a week, today the largest digital asset is trading above $11,750.

Starting the month around $11,250, bitcoin is looking to end this month at +4.5% returns. At current levels, BTC will end Q3 at +27%. In 2020 so far, BTC recorded a return of 59.5%.

August was clearly not the month for the flagship cryptocurrency as even Mike Novogratz’s Galaxy’s equity outperformed Bitcoin and several other altcoins, with over 300% return this year.

Looking only in the crypto market, the biggest gainer without any surprise was YFI with 794% greens followed by OMG Network (225%), NEM (151%), Aave (144%), Waves (133%), LINK (107%), Synthetix (90%), ATOM (90%), THETA (81%), Ampleforth (78%), and Compound (67%).

When it comes to YTD gains, these DeFi tokens continue to rule the market with Aave at the top with its +8,665% returns. Other lead performers include YFI (2,238%), Kyber (892%), LINK (764%), OMG (727%), SNX (637%), and THETA (475%).

Some believe the explosive growth will see bitcoin’s dominance continue to fall and lack the performance it usually experiences in a bull market.

Even among the top 10 cryptos, Ether (229%) and Cardano (240%) did better than Bitcoin this year. Although some of the top altcoins recorded better returns than BTC, they still didn’t do any better in August. The likes of Cardano (-16%), BSV (-13%), Bitcoin Cash (-6.20%), and XLM (-4.34%) are actually in the red.

Out of the Crypto Market

For the equity market, August was a month to enjoy the greens. S&P 500 actually made a new all-time high at above 3,500, capping the gains at 7.1% this month.

Precious metals meanwhile, didn’t do much and traded sideways, after hitting a new peak, that is. Gold is about 0.2% in the losses at $1,966, down from its ATH at $2,065 on August 6th. Silver still managed to end the month 16.7% higher though still down from August 10 level $29, which was last seen in March 2013.

Amidst this, the US dollar performed the worst, down 1.2% from the August opening price. The USD Index also fell 4.35% YTD and now at 92.2 is in danger of hitting fresh over two-year lows.

As we saw in the past few weeks, the dollar’s weakness is pushing people towards bitcoin and making it part of the company’s balance sheet as a reserve asset.

The issues with fiat currency in other parts of the world, such as Turkey, Brazil, and Argentina is also seeing a drive towards the digital asset with fixed supply which has climbed to record price and volume levels in these regions.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Halving Is Not An Event; “There Just Ain’t Enough BTC To Satisfy New Investor Demand”

The equities market finished April with a 12% gain, having its best monthly performance since 1991 despite the ruptured economy.

“Soaring jobless claims, empty restaurants, and a falling count for active oil rigs show the breadth and depth of the blow to the economy,” said Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Tom Orlik.

Amidst this, the Federal Reserve continues to power its money printer. The Fed has dramatically stepped up its effort to prevent a coronavirus depression as it promises to start buying corporate bonds and ETFs in early May. The US central bank later added junk bonds and junk bond ETFs to this list as well.

This meanwhile is helping gold which hovers around $1,700. “The massive monetary support we are witnessing at the movement is helping gold,” Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg said.

But the monetary stimulus is not only helping the precious metal but also the digital currency.

Bitcoin outperformed other assets by finishing April up 34%. The leading digital asset has completely retraced the March 12 lows and is currently trading under $9,000.

“Record monetary and fiscal stimulus is creating the perfect macro backdrop for this inflation-protected, non-sovereign digital asset class,” said Jeff Dorman, Chief Investment Officer at Arca.

Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500 which recently surged to its peak is also starting to subsidize. Moreover, the Chinese Yuan is falling against the dollar once again, which “historically had a much higher negative correlation to Bitcoin.”

Amount of Newly Issued Bitcoin Minuscule to Investment Dollar

Bitcoin has some strong tailwinds ahead of halving, which is less than a week away now. Google searches for the keyword “Bitcoin halving” is already at a record high and continues to climb upwards.

Could the rally that started last month continue into May and see us reaching the all-time high? According to Arca, “the halving is not an event at all.”

Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million coins which is a well-known fact. As such, the supply curve is vertical — perfectly inelastic because it doesn’t change based on demand or price.

This means, “price can only change due to a shift in the demand curve.”

Income, trends and tastes, expectations, price of related goods, and the size and composition of the population are the attributes that cause a shift in the demand curve.

Although these factors contribute to the future growth in bitcoin adoption and as such price, they aren’t specific to halving.

But the price of bitcoin is still expected to move higher for the very reason that “the amount of newly issued Bitcoin is minuscule relative to the number of investment dollars.”

Unlike the corporate bond and equity markets which reached $260 billion in March and then added another $25 billion in April 2020, newly minted bitcoin will fall from 1800 BTC per day to 900 BTC per day post halving.

At the current price, this equates to about $240 million per month of new bitcoin, this is about 12 times less than the new equity offerings and 500 to 1000x less than the corporate bonds offerings.

“There just ain’t enough Bitcoin to satisfy new investor demand,” Dorman said.

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Author: AnTy

80% of Tezos (XTZ) in Baking Despite Fat Fees, Making it Susceptible to Manipulation?

  • Tezos price performance leaves other Ethereum killers in the dust
  • Tezos delegation increases exchanges’ voting power that results in low participation in voting making it susceptible to manipulation

The star altcoin of the crypto market, Tezos (XTZ) is up 485% in the past year. Even in the past month, XTZ has been up 32% against BTC. Against Ethereum as well, XTZ has been experiencing much growth.

In comparison to other Ethereum killers like Tron (TRX), EOS, Algorand (Algo), Cardano (ADA), and HBAR, Tezos price performance has been magnificent.

Source: Messari ETH Killers

Baking your Tezos

These gains recorded by XTZ have been for the most part propelled by the staking craze. And despite the ongoing bear market, it keeps on growing.

As per Messari, currently, 79.7% of XTZ’s circulating supply has been baked. The Liquid Proof of Stake network allows investors to participate via baking or delegating.

To earn staking rewards and passive income on Tezos investment, there are two options. If you bake XTZ yourself, you get to earn an annual reward of 6.30% with adj. reward of 1.33% for a lockup period of 14 days, as per Staking Rewards. Doing it independently requires 8,000 XTZ in collateral.

Also, for this, you need to run a Tezos Node as well as the endorser and baker client which must be constantly connected to the power and internet.

Delegating your Tezos has relatively low risk and the recommended minimum is just 1 XTZ. However, it offers an annual reward of 5.67% and adj. reward of 0.70% with a 10% default provider fee.

Leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance offers a yield of about 7% with zero fees unlike other exchanges like Coinbase that charges 25% fee or any other platform Kraken (7%), Coinone (10%), OKEx (18%), and (28%), as per the data provided by MyTezosBaker.

The staking yield meanwhile on these exchanges is 4.78% on Coinbase, 4.58% on, 5.51% on Coinone, and KuCoin offers 3.06% yield while charging a hefty 50% fee.

Exchanges Controlling Voting Power

Delegating your Tezos to exchanges for baking means, they now control a significant share of Tezos voting power.

Last week, XTZ holders voted in favor of implementing the Carthage upgrade that will increase the gas limit by 30% allowing developers to run more complex applications. The update further aims to improve the accuracy and security of calculating baking rewards.

However, the poll saw a considerable decrease in participation, which has been on a decline over the last 3 voting periods. One possible explanation for this is the rise in staking-as-a-service.

Low participation in voting makes it susceptible to manipulation by those with heavy bags.

Both the big players Coinbase and Binance did not participate in the Carthage vote on behalf of its users. With delegated XTZ baking on exchanges increasing, PoS participation could continue to decrease until a viable voting solution is developed by these exchanges.

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Author: AnTy

Cryptocurrencies and Sports Industries Join Forces: New Collaborations to Boost Mainstream Use


Ever since Bitcoin’s performance witnessed some life, especially after the 2018 plummet, many sports and crypto projects have been joining forces. In particular, news outlet, Crypto Potato has provided a brief breakdown of three collaborations thus far. This shows how far crypto and blockchain have come and the rate at which they are taking over newer spaces.

The first-ever alliance between said parties involve an Italian soccer club, Rimini FC 1912 and global mobile blockchain bank, Quantocoin. The latter has been recognized, considering the fact that it provides services to well over two billion traders; not to forget its 25% ownership of the soccer club.

The next endeavor that was elaborated upon entails both European-based soccer club, Newcastle United and blockchain project, StormGain.

Since the announcement, the CEO of StormGain, Alex Althausen expressed enthusiasm in being able to collaborate with a well-known club, stressing that

“cryptocurrencies and mainstream sports is inevitable.”

Finally, Portugal-based soccer club, S.L. Benifica, has revealed that it will be accepting cryptos (primarily BTC, ETH and UTK) as a payment method for merchandise purchases.

This is just a sample of what’s taking place within the blockchain sector and the potential it has moving forward. In addition to partnerships, more and more advertisements are making waves. This is especially important because it attracts the general public, which is what we need for crypto adoption.

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Author: Nirmala Velupillai