Bitcoin Takes Charge; Elon Musk Changes Market Trajectory with A Single Message

The Bitcoin market is roaring higher right after the largest options expiry in BTC’s history, despite the market giving signs of red, all thanks to Tesla CEO, after all, “In retrospect, it was inevitable.”

Today, it is about Bitcoin. The digital asset is back to rising higher and higher. In a big green candle, the digital asset went from about $32,000 to above $38,000.

This move came on the back of $17.84 billion ‘real’ trading volume, as per Messari, which was lower than Dogecoin initially when DOGE recorded $28.4 billion but is now slowing down.

It has been a volatile week for the leading digital asset as it dropped to about $29,000, and today it is making its way to 40,000, not far from the $42k ATH. This is to be expected with the battle going on between Wall Street and the retail investors who put Bitcoin and the world of decentralization as absolute winners.

Crypto-friendly Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who continues to pump Dogecoin, also changed his Twitter bio to simply read “Bitcoin,” much like Twitter and Square CEO Jack Dorsey.

“In retrospect, it was inevitable,” read his subsequent tweet, which the Crypto Twitter (CT) would like to believe is in regards to Bitcoin.

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While the market was looking bearish, with miners selling BTC since 34k that has the number of all miners’ deposit transactions to exchanges hit the year-high, no stablecoin inflow recorded, and exchange Whale Ratio hitting the eight-month high, a small nudge from Musk was enough to turn it bullish.

Musk’s bio change came just after the largest options expiry in bitcoin’s history and with the market expecting it to mean something – the possibility alone of Tesla potentially adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet was “enough to send the market roaring.”

Also, Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio’s thoughts about Bitcoin have endorsed the digital asset to institutional investors. This is evident from the “astounding” number of inquiries One River Asset Management reported about, which is just one firm and the beginning.

BTC is looking strong, and according to Capriole Investments, “the bottom is in,” which means we need to be prepared for new highs yet again. Not to mention, the underlying Bitcoin network, number of active addresses, the hash rate, the block size, and the number of whales have been showing significant strength throughout.

“The first and most critical step for bulls is to reclaim the $33K order block,” reads the firm’s newsletter. A close above this level presents “a great long opportunity,” and should a short-term breakdown occur, “the $27K region has a high degree of price action support and Fibonacci level confluence.”

And when that dip comes, which would still be in line with the previous bull market, that is for buying because “oftentimes bargain hunters are left stranded on the side of the road in parabolic Bitcoin bull runs.”

The Macro Market

The US dollar, meanwhile, is recovering from losses it incurred earlier this month. From the low of 89.2 in the first week of January, the USD Index has strengthened to 90.7 level.

Interestingly, recently, European Central Bank policymakers agreed to open an investigation to look deeper into the euro’s appreciation against the dollar, or as an analyst, Mati Greenspan puts it, “why the US Dollar is sinking faster than the Euro.”

Policymakers are alarmed on the euro’s strength over the past year and that it will further push inflation down, which is already below zero. Commerzbank told clients.

“The ECB is joining the ranks of those central banks who – because domestic tools have largely been used up – discover the exchange rate as a monetary policy ‘tool.’”

Recently, ECBs Governing Council also noted that an increase in US market interest rates also failed to push the dollar higher. “Put simply, the bar for more policy easing to stem currency gains is very high,” said Vasileios Gkionakis, head of FX strategy at Banque Lombard Odier & Cie.

As the greenback looks strong, this week S&P 500 took its biggest drop in three months. While gold remains around $1,845 per ounce, silver jumped to almost $28 after WallStreetBets set its eyes on the precious metal, intending to pump it to $1,000.

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Author: AnTy

Monster Expiry: $100k Bitcoin Options Expiring This Friday

Monster Expiry: $100k Bitcoin Options Expiring This Friday

With a notional value of more than $3 billion, this will be the biggest expiry Deribit has seen to date, which in the light of the growing options market, will impact the spot market as well.

A record amount of Bitcoin options contracts are expiring on Jan. 29.

This monster expiry of 100k Bitcoin options contracts at a notional value of more than $3 billion will be the biggest expiry crypto derivatives platform Deribit has seen to date. However, the “uber bullish 29 Jan 52k strike needs the spot rate to advance for it to have any meaningful impact on the rest of the market; otherwise, it will decay to zero and have no delta impact,” noted Denis Vinokourov of Bequant.

The price of Bitcoin is currently seeing greens on the first day of the week, trading around $35,000. It’s to be seen if BTC will continue higher or range further after lack of momentum for two weeks following about a 30% pullback to just under $29k.

“As options become more influential in crypto, I expect increased volatility around expiry dates,” says trader AltcoinPsycho who anticipates deeper wicks in the days leading up to Jan. 29th expiry.

Interestingly, the pullback didn’t shake the market as only 61 contracts changed hands earlier last week.

“At current price levels, hedging large option notionals has a major impact on price,” noted trader and economist Alex Kruger.

Increased Institutional Interest

On Monday morning, open options contracts were worth around 250,440 Bitcoin with Deribit, which began offering the products in 2018, accounting for the majority 87.74% of it, as per Bybt. Options basically give the investors the right, not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specified price within a time period.

Interest in Bitcoin options has risen sharply over the past few months as the Bitcoin price broke past its previous ATH of $20,000 to climb to a new all-time high of $42,000 earlier this month.

In late June 2020, OI on bitcoin options contracts was a mere 147k BTC that surged to 265.81k BTC on Dec. 23, which was hit again just last week. The highest open interest of just over 21k BTC is for Bitcoin call options with a strike price of $52,000.

Given that Bitcoin options volume has exploded, from $4.1 billion in July 2020 to $15.36 billion in Dec. and already doing $23 bln in January, so far, the expiry can affect the spot market as well.

“It reflects just how volatile [Bitcoin] has become, even by its own standards, over the last couple of months,” said Craig Erlam, market analyst at Oanda. “The moves we’re seeing on a daily basis now are incredible, so it’s natural that options are being more utilized.”

Due to the complexity involved in options trading, it also indicates how much-sophisticated investors are involved in trading BItcoin. Also, the more institutional adoption, the more futures, and options volumes’ will grow.

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Author: AnTy