Bitcoin’s Longest Slump Since May Severs its Pandemic-era Correlation With Tech Stocks

The beating continues in the cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin drops to as low as $55,700 on Thursday and Ether to $3,970. This has the total cryptocurrency market cap dropping to $2.56 trillion.

Some crypto assets like Loopring, Fantom, SHIB, NEAR, Zcash, LINK, and Kusama have fallen as much as 20% to 27% in the past week. Still, a few cryptos are enjoying gains, with The Sandbox, MANA, and Crypto.com up 50% to 75%.

For the fifth consecutive day, Bitcoin slipped, which is the longest slump since mid-May. The cryptocurrency has dropped below its average prices over the last 50 days. According to Matt Maley, chief market strategist for Miller Tabak + Co., $54,500 is the next important level with a drop below $50k to raise “serious warning flags.”

https://twitter.com/CL207/status/1461453590900486149

Now, ahead of the weekend, Bitcoin is back around $57k while Ether is above $4,100 that has the overall market cap now aiming for $2.6 trillion.

“The pullback, while sharp, has not impacted our positive intermediate-term gauges. Short-term oversold conditions are within reach for Bitcoin, Ether, and many altcoins,” said Katie Stockton, founder of research firm Fairlead Strategies. “So we would look for their collective pullback to mature later this week.”

With the latest weakness in the market, the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 futures is evaporating.

The 30-day correlation between the leading cryptocurrency and the Nasdaq futures has fallen to almost zero in recent days, which hit a 2021 peak at the end of September at 0.56, suggesting Bitcoin and tech stocks were moving in tandem often.

The correlation between Nasdaq and Bitcoin has been generally positive since February last year. But since September-end, Bitcoin is up 40%, surpassing Nasdaq 100’s 11% increase. Last week, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high at $69,000, emerging as an inflation hedge.

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However, according to Carsten Menke, head of next-generation research with Bank Julius Baer in Zurich, this evolution of the relationship between the cryptocurrency and Bitcoin doesn’t support the argument that it is a reliable, modern-day store of value for portfolios.

The lack of a consistent and negative correlation between them suggests that Bitcoin is not yet a safe haven, he said, stressing that during times of financial-market stress, it tends to suffer like other riskier assets.

Defending Bitcoin, Esme Pau, an analyst with China Tonghai Securities, argued that bitcoin is a “sensible” way of buffering against inflation.

“I would urge investors to focus on the longer-term trend and do not think short-term changes in correlation should be considered representative,” she said.

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Author: AnTy

Despite ETH Hitting A New ATH, Ethereum’s DeFi Market Share Drops by 30% in the Past Year

Despite ETH Hitting A New ATH, Ethereum’s DeFi Market Share Drops by 30% in the Past Year

The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector has been seeing some price action since last month, but it is extremely slow compared to the rest of the market.

At a $150.5 bln market cap, DeFi has hit the all-time high from mid-May. But DeFi blue-chips like Uniswap, YFI, and Aave are not leading these gains; the likes of Olympus and Spell that are termed DeFi 2.0 are the ones behind the latest interest in DeFi.

However, the total value locked (TVL) in the DeFi is seeing real growth and hitting new ATHs. Today, it reached yet another one at $244.56 billion, according to DeFi Llama.

The most popular layer 1 blockchain Ethereum also hit a new ATH with the value locked at $162.6 bln, up from $75 bln in late May. MakerDAO is currently the dominant project on Ethereum with $16.62 bln of assets.

But it’s not just Ethereum anymore; over the past year, the multi-chain universe has been expanding, and all of these other layer 1 blockchains together account for 34% of the overall DeFi TVL.

These other blockchains also cover Ethereum layer 2 blockchain Arbitrum, which has also amassed $1.96 bln.

When it comes to other layer 1’s, Binance Smart Chain is at the top with $20.62 bln TVL, finally starting to grow this month after four months of sideways action. Just two weeks back, Binance announced a $1 billion incentive program to attract projects and developers back to BSC.

During the May mania, the TVL on BSC hit its peak at $32.6 bln as it offered a cheaper and faster alternative to Ethereum and is now trying to bring back that action.

Solana is another big competitor to Ethereum, which has the backing of FTX CEO and founder Sam Bankman Fried. At $13.53 bln, its TVL continues to hit new highs as it joins the NFT mania, and investors who missed the ETH train see SOL as their opportunity to have a high-performing asset in their long-term portfolio.

The latest stars of the layer 1 world are Terra and Avalanche with $9.97 bln and $8.2 bln in TVL respectively. With cheaper fees, liquidity programs, and burns, these two are currently ruling the layer 1 blockchain competition.

Their tokens LUNA and AVAX are also enjoying this traction, having hit their ATHs in about the last one month at $50 and $80, respectively.

Fantom (FTM) is another popular one at $4.91 bln, while Polygon (MATIC), which was extremely popular between April to July among the newcomers, has since lost its charm and is now at $4.64 bln has less than half of its TVL ATH.

Other notable mentions include Celo with $1 bln in assets and Harmony (ONE), whose TVL is $325 mln, growing since early July.

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Author: AnTy

Billion Dollar Stablecoin Fei Protocol Struggles As Token Drops Below USD Peg

Billion Dollar Stablecoin Fei Protocol Struggles As Token Drops Below USD Peg

Barely days after the stablecoin project Fei Protocol launched, it appears to be struggling—so much so that its 1:1 USD pegged token has dropped well below its targeted $1 value. Currently at $0.7916.

Fei in Free Fall

The stablecoin project, meant to be algorithmic and without volatility, lost its peg to the U.S. dollar this week. The asset was down by almost 80% at a time.

This caused an uproar on social media, with users complaining about the project and others suggesting solutions.

Compound (COMP) founder Leshner stated that the protocol was in this state due to a bug.

“Folks are watching Fei, a project that raised $1.3B, struggle at launch. It raised way more ETH than needed; most buyers were looking to immediately sell FEI back (peg pressure); then, to top it off, a bug disabled the primary stability mechanism. Not a recipe for stability.”

Meanwhile, the company has responded via its Twitter account. It disclosed that there was a vulnerability through its bug bounty program. This made the development team suspend mint rewards on Fei buys to ensure the protocol and PCV were secured.

Mint rewards are incentives users who buy Fei get to help it return its value to the dollar.

Fei Protocol added that the protocol is still overcollateralized, meaning more cryptocurrency collateral backing the set of Fei tokens. It assured users that the token’s value would return while also thanking users for their suggestions on solutions.

Fei Protocol Fighting Stablecoin Issues

Backed by many high-value investors, Fei Protocol aimed to create a stablecoin protocol that would outrightly buy assets with its token, rather than holding them as collateral for loans.

Fei had pointed out the obvious issues in already established stablecoins that were centralized and controlled by corporations with the focus of fighting them.

The stablecoin introduced the model called ‘Protocol Controlled Value’ (PCV) which means when users deposit collateral, the protocol owns and manages it so that liquidity cannot just be pulled out. The PCV is a subset of TVL (total value locked), in which a platform outright owns the assets locked into the smart contracts.

However, it appears Fei Protocol did not anticipate the high demand it received.

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Author: Jimmy Aki

Users Asked to Return Bitcoin Purchased After Glitch Drops The Price to $6,000 On This Exchange

Users Asked to Return Bitcoin Purchased After Glitch Drops The Price to $6,000 On This Exchange

  • The Philippines-based crypto exchange, Philippines Digital Asset Exchange, or PDAX, experienced a ‘serious glitch’ causing a huge price discrepancy on Bitcoin (BTC) prices, which dropped to $6,000 on Feb 16.
  • The exchange halted trading and is asking users to return BTC bought during the 88% price collapse.

On Tuesday last week, the largest Philippines-based crypto exchange, PDAX, suffered a glitch due to the increased user traffic and volumes on the exchange. This led to a system outage, causing the price of Bitcoin to collapse to the $6,000 mark, allowing users to buy the top crypto at a massive discount.

Several unknown users on the platform we’re able to cash in on this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity’ making thousands of dollars during that period. PDAX exchange then stopped all trading services on the exchange for 36 hours for a maintenance period before bringing the platform back live on February 18th.

However, in a few hours, the glitch was still active; several users could withdraw their ‘discounted’ Bitcoins up to their set withdrawal limits in a day. In an email sent to the users, PDAX demanded these lucky traders to return the crypto, threatening them with a legal suit if they don’t.

In a press conference held on Tuesday to explain the system outages, CEO Nichel Gaba stated increased trading volumes as the primary reason that the exchange experienced its outage. He further stated that the cause of the huge drop in Bitcoin’s price rose from “unfunded orders” (when one side of an order is not funded) being matched with buyers. Gaba said,

“Because the buyer was able to purchase assets from an unfunded order, the buyer can then resell the same asset via the order book system, resulting in a chain of transactions. Thus the resulting balances of users are a mix of unfunded and funded orders.”

The exchange has since demanded users who bought the discounted BTC return them or face legal action. Gaba agreed that “this was the right thing to do” to protect its integrity and protect the market’s interest. Gaba explained,

“Understandably, a lot of users will feel upset they were able to buy what they thought an order was there for Bitcoin at very low prices.”

“But unfortunately, the underlying Bitcoins were never in the possession of the exchange, so there’s never really anything there to be bought or sold, unfortunately.”

PDAX obtained its crypto exchange clearance license back in 2018 from the Philippines’ Central Bank, allowing crypto to Philippines pesos (PHP) conversion. The exchange was the first to offer users direct fiat to crypto trading, including other top cryptos such as Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), XRP, and Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

PDAX has grown into an institutional investment hub with top firms getting digital assets exposure through the firm. To boost its roots, PDAX received an undisclosed amount of financial support from ConsenSys and BitMEX to boost its “sphere of influence” in the South-east Asia region.

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Author: Lujan Odera

BTC Enters a “Historically Attractive Price Zone” as MVRV Drops Below 1 for the 4th Time Ever

  • Bitcoin SOPR drops to 0.843, lowest since February 2012
  • Short-term holders panicked and sold their BTC while long-term holders unfazed of the severed downturn
  • For the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history, the market value of the crypto asset to realize value has dropped below

The price of bitcoin is currently keeping above $5,000 while the trading volume remains around $2 billion after having one of the largest one-day price drops in bitcoin’s history amidst the growing concern over the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

The network-wide indicator of profit/loss is at its lowest since February 2012. On March 12th, BTC SOPR dropped to 0.843, below 1 signal that investors are selling at a loss.

Source: @Coinmetrics

According to Coin Metrics, it was because short-term and relatively new holders sold their BTC during the recent price crash.

On tracking how many old coins came back into circulation after being untouched for a period of time, it was found that on March 11th, about 281 BTC that had been touched for at least 30 days were revived.

In comparison, only 4,131 BTC that had been untouched for at least a year were revived, signaling that a vast majority on March 11th and March 12th involved BTC that were held for less than a year.

March 11th was actually the “fourth-largest spike in BTC thirty day revived supply over the last eight years.”

While short-term holders panicked and sold their digital assets during the bloodbath, long-term holders were unfazed of the severed downturn. The one-year revived supply wasn’t unusually large on March 11.

Source: @Coinmetrics

This was further emphasized by the coin value days destroyed, which multiplied transfer value by the amount of days that the coins transferred were last moved on-chain.

Giving old coins higher weight, this metric didn’t see any significant spike on March 11 or March 12, indicating that “there was not a relatively high amount of long-held coins moved prior to the recent price action.”

After such an intense and loss driven week, it is reassuring that HODLers are holding onto their BTC tight as most of the sell-off was driven by short-term holders.

Markets are still volatile, but bitcoin has now “entered a historically attractive price zone,” as MVRV goes below one which means holders have a higher market valuation than current speculators.

Source: @Coinmetrics

It has been only the fourth time in Bitcoin’s history that the market value of the crypto asset to realized value has dropped below.

On March 12th, it saw its largest one-day drop since December 2013, after the price fell by over 30%. In the past, where MVRV dropped below one has been the “best time to accumulate BTC at a relatively discounted price.”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin is a Safe Haven Asset by Being Uncorrelated & Censorship Resistant: Arcane Research

  • As Bitcoin price drops, so does the Fear and Greed Index. Trading Volume on CME drops to a new 2020 low
  • Bitcoin is a great tool for asset diversification in an investment portfolio, with no uncertainty on its other underlying assets

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price wiped out gains made in February. The digital asset started the month at around $9,400, and ended at just above $8,600, losing 8.5% of its value in the process.

This has the Fear and Greed Index falling to 39, a level not seen for nearly two months. Additionally, the volume on the regulated platform CME dropped to a new 2020 low, just after hitting the highest trading volume.

Similarly, the total volume of the world’s top ten exchanges, the amount of bitcoin exchanging hands went from over a billion in 2020 so far, down to just 275 million yesterday.

The crash came during the Coronavirus (Covid-19) scare that has the stock market experiencing its biggest weekly drop since 2008 while gold surges to 7-year highs.

Because Bitcoin has been falling with the stocks lately, its position as a safe haven asset came under fire. According to Arcane Research, Bitcoin

“is not a safe haven because it goes up when there is global instability.”

This has been because two of Bitcoin’s unique properties; first being that it’s uncorrelated with all other asset classes while also being censorship-resistant as a second.

Bitcoin: Great for Diversifying Your Portfolio?

Talking about Bitcoin’s uncorrelation, the authors Torbjørn Bull Jenssen & Bendik Norheim Schei argued that the negative correlation isn’t of any value in itself because it doesn’t create any additional value:

“With the financial tools and products available in the market, negative correlation can easily be created by short-selling assets. One can even decide the level of negative correlation with leveraged positions.”

A correlated asset is also unique, which also makes bitcoin an “interesting” and suitable safe-haven asset.

“A safe haven that is neutral to every asset class, has its own distinct value drivers and reacts to news and changes around the world differently than other assets. Bitcoin doesn’t follow gold, stocks, bonds or any other asset. This leads to an asset that is great as a tool for the diversification of an investment portfolio,” states Arcane Research.

Being correlated means the asset can fluctuate randomly over time, much like we saw this year. Earlier in 2020, Bitcoin went up while stocks remained relatively flat. This week, by contrast, Bitcoin fell with the stock market.

Because most assets are correlated, “this might drive demand for uncorrelated assets in turbulent times.” Additionally, this could potentially lead to a negative correlation between safe havens and the rest of the financial markets.

There’s No Uncertainty on What the Asset’s Underlying is

For an asset to be a truly global safe-haven asset: liquidity, censorship resistance, and low credit risk are “paramount” attributes.

“Bitcoin allows one to buy an asset that always represents the same value as the market price, with no uncertainty on what the asset’s underlying is.”

And while this sounds similar to physical gold, Bitcoin outperforms gold’s properties — It’s easy to store and transfer around internationally, no reliance on third parties, and protection from confiscation and censorship.

The main issue with Bitcoin is limited liquidity which has rapidly become a non-issue as it trades all over the world, 24 hours a day and 365 days a year.

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Author: AnTy

Binance Exchange Set To Launch BNB Futures On Monday With 50X Leverage

  • Binance to launch BNB Futures on Feb 10.
  • BNB drops 6% against the dollar to set an intraday low of $20.90 USD.

An announcement released by the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Binance, confirmed the launch of BNB Futures. The trading desk for the futures will launch on Monday, Feb. 10 offering traders a maximum leverage of 50X on their trades. The contracts are paired with Tether (USDT).

The launch of the futures that are backed by the native token of the exchange, presents a new market to bet against the future price of BNB. As at time of writing, the price of BNB stands at $21.67 USD, with the market offering a bullish signal in the near term.

Binance Coin (BNB) faces shock 6% dip

After a sustained uptrend in the past few days, following the BNB Futures announcement and the general bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market, BNB witnessed a shock 6% reversal in the early hours of the US market as price dipped to $20.90 USD from an intraday high of $22.16 USD.

The price has since recovered lightly to current prices with the bulls on a target of $25.00 in the near term. One crypto trader and analyst, Keith Wareing, believes the launch of BNB Futures will further propel the coin to further heights in the coming bull run. He believes the coin will probably lead the top 10 coins in returns, explaining:

“As such, during the forthcoming bull run, their position as one as one of the most trusted and secure exchanges in the space guarantees to add demand to the BNB token, so I expect it to outperform all other top 10 assets if the Bitcoin bull run continues.”

The BNB Futures follow a slew of crypto futures added by the exchange in the near past such as the ZCash/USDT perpetual contract in early February and Tron (TRX) perpetual contracts in January offering 75X leverage.

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Author: Lujan Odera

Ripple’s Big Plans for 2020: XRP as a Medium of Exchange & Not as a Speculative Investment

  • XRP price drops on Sept. 2017 level on Dec. 27th But seeing much development especially in Japan
  • Big banking executives went from skepticism to advocacy about digital assets
  • 2020 Ripple will be focused on new utility and use cases for XRP & new products to come

2019 is just about to come to an end. The year saw cryptocurrencies experiencing tremendous growth and first-ever working President, Donald Trump, tweeting about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. As Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said, that moment couldn’t have been predicted.

For the third-largest cryptocurrency, price wise it has been a bad year. XRP dropped to a new low to $0.186 on Dec. 27, a level last seen in late Sept. 2017 during the bull run.

Down 95% from the all-time high, XRP is currently trading at $0.194, as per Coincodex.

2019 was a Big Year

XRP price might only be going down but the cryptocurrency is seeing much development especially in Japan.

“In Japan, almost every bank has started to work with XRP, what you may know as Ripple,” said David Jevans, CEO of CipherTrace.

Also, as Garlinghouse shared in the special holiday episode of The Ripple Drop, Ripple bagged MoneyGram in 2019 that uses the digital asset XRP to move funds. The transition from the skepticism towards digital currencies among MoneyGram executives to advocacy has been an ‘aha’ moment for Garlinghouse.

2019 saw the number of companies using XRP growing to 17 including TransferGo, Interbank, Euro Exim Bank, MoneyGram, Bitso, Bittrex, Bitstamp, FlashFX, Viamericas, Bitrue, Mercury FX, Coins.ph, goLance, Nium (formerly InstaReM), SBI Virtual Currencies, Catalyst, IDT, SendFriend, and Cuallix.

What was surprising in 2019 was how quickly people went from not caring about privacy to very concerned about how much Facebook and Google own their private data, shared Asheesh Birla, SVP of Product at Ripple.

Privacy he said became a mainstream topic of discussion in 2019 when it could have taken a lot longer.

XRP as a Medium of Exchange

Cryptocurrencies have been in existence for a few years now but they are still a speculative asset. Especially for XRP, it isn’t to fund the company either as Ripple CTO David Schwartz clarifies.

“Nobody buys XRP to give Ripple money to do things. We were vc/angel funded and were going to build regardless. We started selling XRP only after there was a market price and for negligible amounts compared to our other funding.”

However, now the company is focused on becoming a medium of exchange, “Our vision is to use digital currencies as a medium of exchange, not as a speculative investment,” said Ripple’s CEO in Brazil, Luiz Antonio Sacco.

The company is working towards expanding partnerships with Brazilian banks by 2020 as demand for cheap and instant solutions in the international remittance market grows rapidly.

In October, Ripple invested in Bitso to expand operations in Latin America with a focus on Brazil.

Now Big Things Coming for 2020

Going into 2020, the Ripple team is expecting big things.

Garlinghouse sees continued consolidation in 2020 as there is no need for 3,000 cryptocurrencies and 99% will eventually go away.

Breanne Madigan, head of the Global Institutional Markets at Ripple meanwhile is excited to build on On-Demand Liquidity (ODL) that leverages XRP.

“We here at Ripple are focused on new utility and use cases for XRP through our Xpring initiative and we are excited about new products to come in 2020,” projected Madigan.

Another thing that Ripple will focus on next year is fake volume as Madigan said, “We think about a lot in the Ripple, and we have made some noise about it is the persistence of fake volumes in the industry.”

As for, in the next decade, Ethan Beard, SVP of Xpring sees cryptocurrencies replacing the underpinnings of the infrastructure of the finance industry.

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Author: AnTy

XRP Crashes To A New Two-Year Low But Trader Says Another 44% Drop Still A “Buy”

  • XRP price drops to $0.192 level
  • However, buy target still between $.10 to $.15
  • After 36,000% gains, it takes “a little longer than the rest to get ready for the next round”

XRP price has dropped below $0.20, going to $0.192, a level was last seen in early November 2017, just before the digital asset climbed to its all-time high.

The third-largest cryptocurrency is currently trading at $0.194, down 8.78% in the past 24 hours as per Coincodex.

This drop came on the back of BTC falling 5.50% that pushed altcoins for even a bigger drop. Other coins like Ethereum, Litecoin, BNB, Stellar Lumens, Link, and IOTA are doing worse than XRP, down 10-13%.

“Did you seriously think you could escape fate?,” is the analyst DonAlt’s response to the drop in XRP price. However, If this week closes above the green, DonAlt will “probably punt a long here.”

In the BTC market, XRP is down over 67% in the past year. However, according to trader Credible Crypto, another 44% drop from here would still be a good buy opportunity. In USD terms, it would put the digital asset at $0.15 ish. Overall, it depends on how low BTC goes.

Analyst Jacob Canfield also has the same buy target between $.10 to $.15. However, “even then I would be cautious,” he warned.

However, unlike Canfield, Credible Crypto is not concerned because it isn’t surprising that the best performing coin of 2017 bull run is lagging now as it’s “not easy to digest a 1000x move to the upside, takes time.”

With more than 36,000% gains, XRP was the best-performing asset of 2017 which gives it a pass to “take a little longer than the rest to get ready for the next round,” he said.

Moreover, the trader points out that one would still be up 3x in USD terms “had you invested in XRP over BTC prior to the last bull run, even at its current state.”

He further clarifies that it is a long term accumulation and not a trade.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Bottom Close, Bulls Signal a “Strong” Reversal

  • Trading volume drops to just $120 million
  • MVRV, unrealized profits, and SSR paints a bullish picture
  • Investor momentum tracking indicator suggests bottom most likely in

Bitcoin is not seeing much action and is stuck around $7,500 for over a week now. However, the volume has taken a severe drop, falling to a mere $120 million. Such low volumes make it easier for a large amount of transactions to move the prices and the market.

Indicators Painting a Bullish Picture

According to the on-chain data analytics platform, Glassnode, the bottom of the market is “close” and when that will happen the “reversal will be strong.”

MVRV that historically has indicated the bottom of the Bitcoin market cycle is consolidating towards   1. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is the ratio between market cap and realized cap that gives an indicator of when the traded price is below fair value.

Another indicator pointing towards a similar bullish picture is unrealized profits. Relative unrealized profit is the total profit in USD of all coins in existence whose price at realization time was lower than the current price normalized by the market cap.

Now that investors have less profit to realize, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has started to diminish what is allowing for an upward momentum to build, notes Glassnode.

Another positive factor is SSR, the ratio between Bitcoin supply and that of stablecoins, USDT, TUSD, USDC, GUSD, PAX, DAI, and SUSD, denoted in BTC.

When SSR is low, that means the stablecoin supply has more “buying power” to purchase Bitcoin.

Currently, it is at 26.9, down from last month’s nearly 33 indicating high buying power which is “good in a bottoming market.”

“The more capital waiting on the sideline, the stronger the reversal once investor sentiment turns bullish again.”

Prominent analyst Willy Woo also pointed out that on-chain momentum is “crossing into bullish” and is advising to prep for the upcoming Bitcoin reward halving front running from here on.

As per the indicator that tracks investor momentum, the bottom seems to be most likely in, with “anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view.”

Long Target of $100k Intact but More Pain Expected Still

However, TraderXO shares his favored scenario where he sees Bitcoin price dropping further to $5.8 to $6k. This, however, is just one of his scenarios for BTC price and he says “nothing is certain,” but one should have a plan.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt is also expecting the Bitcoin to bottom soon but not before July 2020 when according to him BTC will complete ts 80% correction at $5,500.

This bearishness in the near term is because there have been four violated parabola since 2011 and massive capitulation by crypto bulls will lead to a bottom next year.

In the immediate term, however, he is bullish as the bottom of the multi-year channel will hold and “6-month bear channel on the daily chart will provide launch for renewed parabolic phase.”

As for the long term, the historic bull trend remains intact with a target of $100,000.

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Author: AnTy