23k BTC on CME Futures and 50k BTC in Options Expiring Today

Bitcoin is currently down 0.05% in the past 24 hours trading around $6,640 after hitting $6,872 last night, yet again rejected at $7,000 level. Interestingly, more than 340,000 addresses are holding about 236k BTC at about $7k level.

According to trader Nebraskan Gooner, the crypto asset is working in a tight range. A daily close above $6,750 he said “would surely” take us above $7,000 while the close below $6,400 means, falling to $5900 and even $5200.

Bitcoin has also printed a death cross, which indicates a potential for major sell-off. This technical chart pattern has been a reliable indicator of some of the most severe bear markets in the traditional markets which is now seen in bitcoin.

But bitcoin volatility could see a further hike as futures contracts on CME and options expire today.

Activity on CME has been declining ever since February when the price of Bitcoin was trading around $10,500. Crypto data provider TradeBlock, noted,

“March bitcoin futures trading volume at the CME declined despite elevated volatility in spot markets for the month. While the CME’s bitcoin futures product saw record volumes in January and February, March activity has fallen considerably.”

Source: @TradeBlock

As for today’s futures contract expiration, Bitcoin futures on regulated exchange CME has about 23,000 BTC worth over $150 million in open interest for March 27th contracts.

Besides bitcoin futures, options are also expiring today. About 50,000 BTC options worth about $330 million are outstanding on crypto exchanges, out of which $50 million are in open interest on March 27th expiry on Deribit.

“For reference, the Deribit Exchange open interest on options last year was half the value of open interest that is present on exchange now. ($300m -> $600m). The same case for BitMEX March 27th futures,” noted Trajan.

Skew-Total-BTC-Options-Open-Interest
Source: Skew.com

According to Su Zhu, CEO of Three Arrows Capital this quarter is “very important” to watch. It is expected that the expiry of Bitcoin futures and options would result in heightened volatility.

Zhu further noted, “Last yr market bounced quite aggressively from backwardation to contango after the expiry.”

Backwardation is when the spot price of an underlying asset is higher than the futures price while Contango is when the price of a commodity is higher in the futures market than the current price of the commodity. Now it’s to be seen if we will see the same scenario happening this time as well.

Backwardation is happening in both gold and bitcoin which Zhu said could be because “mkt has re-learned fear and is showing preference for owning actual assets vs owning derivatives of those assets.”

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Author: AnTy

Bears To Push Bulls Out, Expecting XRP to Crash Another 30%: Crypto Trader

The fourth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap of $4.3 billion, as per Messari, XRP is currently in the green by 1.14% while trading at $0.157.

On March 13, XRP took a big fall, falling to $0.128, that had the digital asset down over 97% from its all-time high of $3.92 hit in January 2018.

In the past month, the crypto asset has lost over 40% of its value however, it managed to recover some gains in the past 7 days. But XRP isn’t out of the woods yet and is expected to see new lows soon.

The crypto asset has fallen to its three-year lows but according to trader Credible Crypto, the price of XRP will be making its way to below $0.11. XRP is “progressing beautifully” to his over 30% drop target, a level which according to the trader is a buy the dip zone.

Trader with the pseudonym Livercoin is also expecting another big 30% drop. For now, it is holding the 2500 sats support “strong” but bulls will finally lose to bears as per the trader.

In the BTC market, XRP has been down throughout.

Intermex to Test XRP But Won’t Use RippleNet in Core Markets

In other news, Ripple partner Intermex will begin testing the viability of XRP as a bridge currency later this year. The company is building out its network into other corridors, where it would require on-demand liquidity.

Here, they “can use XRP as kind of a pivot currency to swap US dollars for pesos, 24/7. And it’s early days, but we would expect to be testing that later this year.”

However, the company that specializes in payments in the US and Latin America recently shared that it doesn’t not plan to use RippleNet in its primary corridor between the US and Mexico. CEO Bob Lisy said,

“Ripple will not be an answer for places like Mexico. We’re very proud about the relationships we have there… We have very tight relationships that strategically [set] plans and objectives with those payers. And so you won’t really see us leveraging Ripple in our core markets.”

Tony Lauro, the chief financial officer shared recently that the company is looking at Ripple for several other products.

As for RippleNet, the hub that connects financial institutions, it “will enable us to onboard new payers faster than we would if we were doing direct connections to each one,” said Lauro.

The company is likely to utilize Ripple’s payment solutions in the emerging markets, where there is less liquidity and efficiency.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Price (BTC) Eyeing Strong Comeback After A Massive Fall

Bitcoin price tumbled more than $5,000 in the past two days. BTC to USD is currently correcting higher from $3,865 and it is likely to continue higher towards the $6,000 and $6,200 levels.

Key Takeaways: BTC/USD

  • Bitcoin price fell significantly from well above $8,200 and it tested the $4,000 area against the US Dollar.
  • BTC/USD is recovering and trading near the $6,000 resistance plus a bearish trend line on the 2-hours chart (data feed from Bitstamp) to enter a bearish zone.
  • Ethereum is also recovering from well below $100.00 and it is now trading above $125.00.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

In the past few sessions, there were heavy swing moves in bitcoin price below the $8,000 and $6,000 support levels. BTC to USD broke multiple supports near the $5,000 and $4,800 levels to extend its decline.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Looking at the 2-hours chart, bitcoin even traded below the $4,200 support level and settled below the 50 simple moving average (2-hours, purple). Finally, there was a break below the $4,000 handle and the price traded as low as $3,864.

It is currently correcting higher and trading above the $4,500 and $5,000 levels. The bulls were able to lead the price above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent dive from $8,021 to $3,864.

It seems like bitcoin price is recovering and trading near the $6,000 resistance plus a bearish trend line on the same chart. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent dive from $8,021 to $3,864 is also acting as a resistance near the $5,942 level.

If there is an upside break above the $5,940 and $6,000 resistance levels, the price could start a strong increase. The next resistance area is seen near the $6,260 and $6,433 levels.

The later one represents the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent dive from $8,021 to $3,864. Any further gains might call for a push towards the $7,600 resistance area.

Conversely, bitcoin price could fail to continue above the $5,940 and $6,000 resistance levels. In the mentioned case, there are chances of another decline towards the $5,000 level.

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Author: Aayush J

Ethereum Price Crash Causes ‘Extreme’ Network Congestion; Gas & DeFi Shot Up

TLDR:

  • Ethereum price sees its biggest percentage drop ever
  • Borrowing demand for DAI is currently at record levels
  • ETH median gas price just spiked to the highest level it’s been in over 1 year
  • Ethereum network clogged while unconfirmed transactions rose because of this Binance increased ETH withdrawal fees by 100% and ERC20’s by 66%

Today’s crypto carnage saw the second-largest cryptocurrency losing 33 percent of its value and is currently trading at $141.44.

The price of Ether fell from about $200 to as low as $129, making it the biggest percentage drop in the digital asset’s price. Ever. And this has been on the back of substantial volume as currently, over a billion dollars worth of Ether are exchanging hands-on top ten exchanges with real volume.

This drop came amidst the broader market turmoil. For the first time since May, Bitcoin dropped to $5,700 level and the US stock market extended its losses on Thursday triggering yet again a trading halt within 10 minutes of the market opening.

The global markets are suffering because of the continued uncertainty and fear about the coronavirus (Covid-19) which has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

This black swan event, however, had a lot more complications for Ether besides just price.

Massive network congestion

The crash in Ether price resulted in the price of Gas, the computation power on the Ethereum network to shoot up. Measured in gwei, Gas prices went to 100, making the cost of sending basic transactions in the next block north of $0.30.

“Ethereum’s price drop has lead to massive network congestion. ETH median gas price just spiked to 29 gwei – the highest it’s been in over 1 year,” noted crypto analysis company Glassnode.

Source: @glassnode

Similar spikes in gas prices have been seen during bouts of volatility in the past as well.

Apart from the gas price, the Ethereum Network is also having a considerable backlog, clogging transactions for as much as an hour and more. As per Etherscan, unconfirmed transactions on the Ethereum network jumped to 120k today, for which reportedly ERC20-based Tether (USDT), which crypto exchange Binance disabled for a short amount of time and DAI liquidations are responsible.

To run things faster, Binance increased the ETH withdrawal fees by 100% and ERC20 withdrawal fee by 66%.

“To better facilitate ERC20 and ETH withdrawals during this period of high congestion on the ETH network, we are making the following temporary adjustments: ETH withdrawal 0.003 ETH is now 0.006 ETH. ERC20 withdrawal 0.006 ETH is now 0.01 ETH. Withdrawals will re-open shortly,” announced the exchange.

Liquidation issues

Another impact of this price crash has been on the Decentralized Finance products (DeFi). The decline in Ether price caused liquidations of DeFi derivatives trading and collateralized debt.

As the network is congested, it means it is taking time for the collateral to get liquidated. With a dominance of 58% in DeFi, it affected the Maker users. MakerDAO participants are advised to repay, pay back debt, or add more collateral to increase their ratio.

For automation users, DeFi Saver, a management solution for decentralized finance protocols said they “cannot provide any guarantees regarding outcomes” in a scenario where the price in a user’s MakerDao drops below their liquidation price.

Not just in bear markets but in booming periods as well, Ethereum Network has gotten congested.

One positive thing that happened during today’s bloodbath is an increment of 6.7% in the ETH locked in DeFi. It yet again jumped above 3 million, according to DeFi Pulse.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin On-Chain Data: Long-Term Holders Are Not Selling BTC; Unlike Short-Term Investors

Today, bitcoin made yet another attempt at climbing up, hovering around $7,800 currently. However, most long-term holders are confident, despite the recent price dips amidst the spreading coronavirus (Covid-19) and oil price war.

On-chain fundamentals of the bitcoin network remain strong and with the supply restriction coming with halving in May, BTC price would experience upward pressure.

“While some market commentators speculate that coronavirus fears and economic turmoil may uproot confidence in bitcoin and overturn long-existing narratives, for the time being, those invested in the underlying value of BTC appear to remain assured in its long-term potential.”

Long-term holders confident

According to digital asset analysis firm Glassnode, LTH-SOPR (Long term holder – Spent Output Profit Ratio) that applies to “spent outputs that are at least 155 days old,” has decreased with the drop in price and is now testing 1-line.

When the value of this metric is above 1, investors are selling at a profit whereas below 1 indicates they are selling it at a loss.

Historically, because long-time holders have been through the ebbs and flows of bitcoin’s price, they are used to volatility. It is easier to stay confident, play the long game and wait for the price to turn positive. The HODLers that likely to be invested in bitcoin for ideological reasons and believe in its fundamentals, can also afford to wait out the dip and aren’t scared by periodic peaks and troughs.

Unlike short term investors, HODLers tend to zoom out and look at the asset over the long-term which helps to reduce panic selling.

HODLers still holding onto their BTC

Another metric SOAB (Spent Output Age Bands) shows these long-term holders are still holding. This metric “represents the percentage of spent outputs on a given day which were a certain age,” determining whether long-term or short-term holders are more responsible for on-chain transactions.

Looking back at the BTC price drop that occurred after March 7th, you can see that transaction fluctuations from both short and long-term holders were pretty standard. No strong uptick from either side.

Since March 7th, short-term holders showed the largest increase, jumping from 12.78% to 18.59%. The 6m-12m age band, which represents LTH movements, also saw a meaningful increase from 1.17% to 2.03%. The 6m-12m age band, which represents LTH movements, also saw an increase from 1.17% to 2.03%.

Because these people bought BTC at higher prices than the current price, LTH-SOPR is decreasing but not as drastically as STH-SOPR.

Now, if we take a look at CDD (Coin days destroyed) that indicates “the cumulative age of all send outputs at a given time,” and according to Glassnode, it saw a spike reflecting “movement from long-term holders. However, the average lifespan of spent outputs (ASOL) decreased since the price started to drop, suggesting this spike in CDD was caused by either a larger number or higher value of transactions from short-term holders.”

So what does this all mean? Long-term holders are well, still holding for the most part. Some are selling off, but nothing to indicate panic selling.

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Price (BTC) Recovery Remains Capped, Sell Near $9K?

Bitcoin price is currently correcting higher from the new weekly low of $8,422. BTC to USD is likely to face a strong selling interest near the $8,975 and $9,000 levels.

Key Takeaways: BTC/USD

  • Bitcoin price is slowly correcting higher and trading above the $8,640 level against the US Dollar.
  • BTC/USD is facing hurdles near $8,760 and a major bearish trend line on the 2-hours chart (data feed from Bitstamp).
  • Ethereum is recovering, but it is likely to face sellers near $235.00 and $236.00.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

This week, there was a strong downside reaction in bitcoin price below the $9,220 and $9,000 support levels. Moreover, BTC to USD declined steadily below the $8,750 and $8,640 levels.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

Looking at the 2-hours chart, bitcoin even declined below the $8,500 level and settled well below the 50 simple moving average (2-hours, purple). Finally, the price spiked below $8,450 and traded to a new weekly low at $8,422.

It is currently correcting higher and trading above the $8,640 level. There was a break above the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from $8,975 to $8,422.

It seems like bitcoin is currently facing hurdles near $8,760 and a major bearish trend line on the 2-hours chart. The trend line is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from $8,975 to $8,422.

Above the trend line, the next major resistance is near the $8,835 and $8,975 levels. Besides, the 50 simple moving average (2-hours, purple) is positioned near the $8,975 and $9,000 levels.

Therefore, a clear break above the $8,975 and $9,000 levels is must for more upsides in the near term. The next major hurdle for the bulls is seen near the $9,220 level.

Conversely, bitcoin price could might fail to surpass the $8,835 and $8,975 resistance levels. In the mentioned case, the price could resume its decline and trade below the $8,500 support area. If the bears remain in action in the coming sessions, there is a risk of a larger decline below $8,422. The next key support is near the $8,240 level.

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Author: Aayush J

XRP Kicks off the Week with a Bang, Experts Expect More Sparks Ahead

  • XRP goes from $0.194 to $0.223 but is currently in red by 1.50%
  • Binance launches XRP/USDT futures contracts with up to 75x leverage
  • Ripple partner MoneyGram’s online transactions increased by over 70%
  • Kuwait’s largest lender launches “NBK Direct Remit,” will use RippleNet
  • Experts call for more upsurge, “$589. Or I will eat my dick!” says Mati Greenspan

On January 3rd, XRP was trading at $0.185. On Jan 6, the digital asset went surging, going from $0.194 to $0.223.

This spike in XRP price was the result of Binance launching XRP/USDT futures contracts with up to 75x leverage. The digital asset is the fourth crypto asset to be added on Binance’s futures trading platform apart from BTC contracts with a leverage of up to 125x and 75x leverage on ETH and BCH contracts.

In 2019, Binance Futures registered 99,090,000,000 USDT in total trading volume, “witnessing the continuous growth of retail and institutional investors.”

MoneyGram’s Online Transactions Increased by over 70%

Another driver behind this surge has been Ripple partner MoneyGram announcing on Monday that its online transactions increased by more than 70% during the holidays on a year-over-year basis, with 80% initiated on a mobile device. MoneyGram’s redesigned app launched in late 2018 has over 1.6 million downloads.

This record-breaking online transaction growth occurred between Dec.1 and Dec.25. Outside the US, this growth has been about 120%.

“As part of our digital transformation, we’re on a mission to mobilize the movement of money,” said Alex Holmes, MoneyGram Chairman and CEO adding, “The success of our mobile app throughout the year, and especially during this holiday season, demonstrates the value consumers place not only on our user experience but also on our global distribution network.”

Kuwait’s largest lender using RippleNet for its latest Launch

The National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) has launched “NBK Direct Remit” for limited cross-border remittance for which it would be using RippleNet.

This new service will be available for customers to make live payments to Jordan and soon to other countries as well. NBK has a presence in London, Paris, New York, Geneva, Singapore, and China and regionally in Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, and UAE. Marcus Treacher, senior vice president, customer success, of Ripple said,

“NBK is an important partner in the region, and we’re excited that they have begun moving live payments across our blockchain network on behalf of their customers.”

More Upsurge Expected

After seeing the greens, today XRP price turned red, recording 1.44% losses in the past 24 hours. But crypto commentators expect more action from the digital asset.

Analyst DonAlt is betting on the XRP price to go higher, as high as $0.502.

Talking about altcoins like Bitcoin cash (BCH), Litecoin, Ethereum (ETH), and XRP, he said,

“Slow start but that’s to be expected, bulls are still battle-scarred and bears still pile on every SFP they see. I’ll give it all some time to move.”

Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics meanwhile took a jab at John McAffee who backed out on his $1 million BTC price prediction by the end of 2020 by calling for the much controversial $589 price prediction for XRP.

“$589. Or I will eat my dick!” said Greenspan.

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Author: AnTy

Google Scholar Articles Published Mentioning Bitcoin Surged 19.1% In Just One Year

The number of Google Scholar articles published that currently mention Bitcoin (BTC) have grown around 19.13% in the last year. This shows that the interest in Bitcoin continues to grow all around the world. The information was provided in a recent tweet by the CTO of Casa Hodl, Jameson Lopp.

Interest In Bitcoin Grows

In the last ten years, Bitcoin became the leading cryptocurrency of the world allowing users to make transfers and store value in a fast and easy way. Bitcoin is the first asset to allow individuals to send value across borders and electronically without having to be worried about the double-spending issue.

Back in 2009, there were 83 articles published about Bitcoin. This was the year in which Bitcoin was created. Since that moment, the articles published per year started growing and reached 11,500 in 2018. And in 2019 the number of Bitcoin-related articles reached 13,700.

Although this represents a net growth of 19.13% compared to 2018, between 2017 and 2018, the number of articles published grew by 78%. Furthermore, between 2016 and 2017, the growth rate reached 91.12%. Jameson Lopp considers that 2019’s numbers could continue to grow considering there is still a listing lag, meaning that the current 19.13% growth could be higher.

Many users were surprised by the results of the year 2009 when there was very little or no information about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Indeed, Bitcoin was just a niche topic and just a few developers and tech-savvy people knew about it.

It is worth mentioning that Bitcoin’s annual minimum prices in USD terms have also been growing over time with just one year registering a retraction since 2012. In 2019, Bitcoin’s minimum price was $3,404 and in 2018 it was $3,225.

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Author: Carl T

Blockchain Capital’s 12 Bold Predictions For 2020: Number 7 is Controversial But Inevitable

2019 is coming to an end and Bitcoin price is currently trading at $7,265, down 63% from its all-time high of $20,000.

But according to Blockchain Capital’s bold predictions for next year, Bitcoin could very well make a new ATH. But that doesn’t mean we will get to see $500,000 by the end of 2020.

In November 2017, John McAfee clarified that this price is based on the model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017 but Bitcoin accelerated much faster than his model assumptions. As such, he re-upped the bet from $500k to $1 million.

But Blockchain Capital doesn’t see this happening, at least not in 2020.

Positive Development…

Coming onto the 7th bold prediction for the Bitcoin network, it involves Bitcoin fees that the company is predicting to exceed $100 on the back of demand for Bitcoin transactions next year.

This prediction Spencer Bogart, General Partner at the company says is a controversial one but an “inevitable part of a successful Bitcoin trajectory.”

Given that the next block halving will cut down the rewards from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC, as Bogart says this would be a “positive development.”

Growth for Stablecoins but Tighter Regulation as well

Blockchain Capital sees growth in the crypto market next year with the prediction of a crypto company being acquired for more than $500 million. The value locked in DeFi is projected to hit a whopping $5 billion, currently, it’s nearly $672 million.

On the regulatory side, KYC/AML is projected to be DeFi’s “primary regulatory battleground.” But a federal judge might rule against the SEC in a crypto case.

When it comes to stablecoin, the company particularly talks about USDC, a US dollar-pegged stablecoin launched by Coinbase and Circle. It is expecting to see a 300% growth measured by transaction value, issuance, market cap, and trading volume.

However, FinCEN and FATF will hold stablecoin to a stricter standard than even paper cash by “requiring broad application of the travel rule.”

As for social media giant Facebook’s project Libra, Blockchain Capital predicts that it will receive the green light for a dollar-backed stablecoin, in the light of competition from China.

Amidst all these positive predictions the company also expects the privacy coins to continue to be delisted from major exchanges. Also, “not a single 2020 L1 network launch achieves top 10 status, as defined by network value.”

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Author: AnTy

Bitcoin Miners Turn to Derivatives to Increase their Profitability as Halving Looms & Fees Decline

Bitcoin miners are currently earning 12.5 BTC for each block they mine successfully. The third reward halving will cut down this reward to half to 6.25 BTC.

There are about 5 months left when this event will occur and put a dent in miners’ revenue. But before that could happen BTC miner fees are already down over 24% from the prior week.

The 7-day average for Bitcoin miner fees is down to $166,669, which is down 52% from last month but still up 188% in 2019.

But this needn’t be negative and can be a lagging effect of fewer transactions or better fee estimation by wallets or because of more effective transactions.

Actually, it was in March this year that Bitcoin mining started seeing an uptake after falling to its lowest in February 2019 since August 2017.

Bitcoin Mining Profitability on the Decline

Back in August, Coin Metrics reported that the all-time revenue for Bitcoin miner topped $14 billion. While it took eight years for miners’ total revenue to surpass the $5 billion, the next $5 billion were exceeded in just eight months.

This is because of the increase in Bitcoin prices. In 2019 YTD, Bitcoin is up about 90% after losing 84% of its value in 2018 from the all-time high of $20,000 in 2017.

Most importantly Bitcoin has been making a higher yearly low, from $0.01 in 2010, $4 in 2012, $185 in 2015 to $3,200 in 2018.

Bitcoin mining profitability that has been on an uptrend since December topped in June this year and has been on a decline ever since, as per Bitinfocharts. This is because while BTC price has taken a drop from 2019 high of $13,900 in June, the hash rate continues to climb.

Towards the end of October, Bitcoin hash rate hit an all-time high at 110 Th/s and though it has taken a fall since then it is staying around 90 Th/s.

As such, miners are now looking to hedge the hash rate and wild swings in electricity that can easily turn their profits to losses.

Attracting Traditional Investors

A spike in hash rate means a need for more electricity that drives up the cost and eats into their profits. But now come crypto miners have found the answer in derivatives that will allow them to hedge the hash rate.

These derivatives will allow the miners to price in risk and provide clearer projections of cash flow which is a prerequisite for investors. However, the market is at a very early stage.

“We’re building products around hashrate and difficulty,” Richard Rosenblum co-founder of crypto trader GSR told Reuters, but “It’s going to take more than a few months for there to be significant liquidity.”

In the current environment of ultra-low interest rates, traditional investors are looking for high-yield return options and crypto miners can offer them an attractive proposition.

But Marco Krohn, co-founder of Hong Kong-based Genesis Mining said “these people tend to ask questions” and being “risk-averse.”

And to attract such investors, mining firms are looking at controlling their risks in terms of price and hash rate through financial tools.

According to these firms, the adoption of derivatives in the mining communities has increased in recent months and the market for such products was growing more liquid. Also, more players are on the sidelines watching how these perform before they jump in themselves.

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Author: AnTy