Bitcoin bulls are being kept at bay by the U.S 2020 election uncertainty according to Northern Trust Wealth Management CIO, Katie Nixon.
Speaking to MarketWatch, she noted that the crypto markets volatility will increase further between now and the elections. This, coupled with the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing U.S-China trade war could see BTC struggle below the $10,000 mark for a longer time.
While BTC has suffered under global uncertainty, other assets including traditional safe havens like gold and oil weren’t spared. Oil prices recently hit a 25-year low as demand plummeted amid lockdown measures.
Gold, on the other hand, was a bit resilient, with speculations pointing to a possible $3,000 high in the near future. Following these trends, the crypto market was ultimately affected, but historical data from TradingView now point out to a possible bull-run after the U.S elections.
Based on this cycle, BTC appears to have picked up after the 2012 and 2016 U.S elections. Could this mean a repeat of the same as we head into the 2020 elections? With the crypto markets uncertainty, only time can confirm whether the pattern holds water.
Earlier this month, hopes were high following the BTC halving, but the market failed to react adequately. As it stands, Bitcoin has yet to form a stable support level above $10,000 despite the market hype prior to Mays 2020 halving.
Interestingly, this speculation coincides with a theory by Eric Wade, a crypto veteran working with the Stansberry Research Group.
In his recent analysis, Wade noted that BTC is about to experience the next bull market given the new halving. Looking back, the market picked after the 2012 and 2016 BTC halvings. These were both U.S election years, hence the similarity despite different fundamental explanations to the cycle.
At the moment, BTC is trading at $8,855 as per Coinmarketcap stats and continues to dominate the crypto market with a 65% market share. Going by the speculated cycles, this price could comfortably hit the $10,000 mark once the U.S 2020 election is over and the market has fully adjusted to the new 6.25 block reward.