Bitcoin is on a downslide today, moving as low as $9,231. Currently, BTC/USD is trading around $9,350 with a 24 hours loss of 4.55% while managing the daily ‘real’ trading volume of $1.4 billion.
Bitcoin in red has the altcoins incurring losses as well, but for now, the downslide among the altcoins isn’t that harsh. Since early May, Bitcoin’s dominance is actually on a downtrend, going from nearly 69% to 64.65%, which has been the result of altcoins pumping while leading cryptocurrency continues to range.
Now, according to market traders, the odds are in the bears’ favor. But this doesn’t mean, bitcoin will crash to $4k levels as seen in March 2020, $7,000 makes for a somewhat reasonable bear scenario as it would test the first breakout area, said trader Nik Patel.
Thoughts on bearish scenarios being discussed atm for $BTC.
However, as per the MVRV ratio, bitcoin’s “upside potential remains large.”
Market Value to realized Value (MVRV) ratio indicates whether bitcoin has been trading above or below its fair value relative to its realized price. A ratio between 1 and 2 means BTC could be undervalued while a higher ratio implies overvaluation. Currently, the MVRV ratio is at 1.6, remaining at relatively low levels despite the recent price surge. Also:
Been wondering when #bitcoin might see its 200 DMA (blue line again) and was considering support around $8,000.
— Mati Greenspan (tweets are not trading advice) (@MatiGreenspan) June 24, 2020
Meanwhile, in the US stock market, the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite set the 5th record this month and 21st record of the year, its best winning streak since 1999. Big technology stocks are the ones that are leading much of this rally.
“There’s a lot of money on the sidelines, and as the country reopens, as the economy recovers, that money will be forced back in,” said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
However, fresh highs for tech stocks while volatility remains elevated and may pose trouble for the S&P 500 index, according to BTIG LLC. On Tuesday, while Nasdaq reached a record high, fellow American indexes S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 failed to hit their own new ATH.
US stocks more commonly record gains during periods of low volatility or risk reversal after blowouts of the kind seen during March and April, it said.
But not for veteran trader Peter Brandt, who is warning people that “XRP is a manipulated market & a dead end.”
As for Bitcoin and Ethereum, he is “super bullish” on these two top cryptocurrencies.
Monero (XMR) with 9.03% and NEO 7.33% gains are performing better than other top altcoins. Down the line, 0x (ZRX) 25.33%, Komodo (KMD) 25.32%, OmiseGo (OMG) 13.09%, Holo (HOT) 11.98%, and ICON (ICX) 11.43% are others leading the market gains.
ZRX, the 48th largest cryptocurrency’s price, is enjoying an uptrend just like its daily active addresses (unique address transacting) which are up a whopping 86% and has been growing since mid-April.
Overall, the crypto market has added more than $10 billion to its market capitalization today.
When Does Altcoins’ Hype Cycle Begin?
While Bitcoin has recovered all the losses from the March sell-off and is currently at mid-February levels, altcoins are still down between 14% to 34%.
With the bitcoin block reward halving next week, it makes sense that money is flowing out of altcoins as right now BTC is the center of attention and as such rallying strongly.
Besides strong network fundamentals, the news of macro investor Paul Tudor Jones buying bitcoin as a hedge against the inflation further fueled this rally. Analyst Rekt Capital said.
Bitcoin’s dominance is also on the rise while,
“Altcoin Dominance is reflective of market-wide shedding in valuation in Altcoins as investors chase the exponential Bitcoin rally ahead of the bitcoin halving.”
“Once the immediate Bitcoin Halving hype dies down, Altcoins will have reached their local bottoms.”
A similar opinion is echoed by trader DonAlt who says the altcoin market is on the verge of capitulation after the BTC pump didn’t translate into the altcoin appreciating, which is the “worst thing” for an altcoin holder.
“We’re teetering on the edge of market-wide altcoin capitulation and I couldn’t be more excited about it,” said DonAlt.
The hype cycle for altcoins is expected to be in quarter second of 2020 after they retrace to “attractive prices.”
With the odds of Bitcoin’s surge above $10,000 “increased exponentially,” another trader and economist Alex Kruger says, “Alts should follow, either with a bang or without.”
Bitcoin begins its ascent in to the new 2020 decade soaring over $10,000 BTC/USD exchange rate value for the first time since September 22, 2019. The past 160 days saw bitcoin’s price drop to as low as $6,500 on December 17th, the 4,000th day the bitcoin blockchain has been activated and running. It did flirt with 10K range back in October 25-27 but did not hold support but is now up nearly 50% in 2020 so far.
Bitcoin started the 2020 calendar year just over $7,000 and is now already increased to over $10,000 just 38 days into the 20’s decade. As the best performing asset of the 2010 decade, many are becoming bullish in sentiment towards the crypto market’s potential to run before the third bitcoin halving event takes place in the middle of May 2020.
The $10,000 BTC price point is considered a psychological turning point as the leading asset in the crypto market industry. It has been 801 days since Bitcoin first crossed $10,000 barrier for the first time ever when it did back on November 29, 2017 – of course going to $19,983 on December 17th 2017 before falling to $3,323 level by December 19, 2018 as the low point of the crypto bear market.
A fresh reminder from a vocal Crypto Twitter contributor:
When #Bitcoin dropped to ~$3000 by early 2019, many in mainstream media and finance yelled that Bitcoin is going to zero. Gentle reminder that Bitcoin didn’t go to zero. Bitcoin price is in fact up more than 300% since then. pic.twitter.com/gOkfYapdeS
The halving is just over 90 days out as the May 12, 2020 prediction date looms to take its blockchain mining rewards system output from 12.5 BTC to 6.75 BTC per every new block created on the BTC blockchain every ten minute cycle. The digital scarcity aspect will heighten as nearly 87% of all bitcoin’s satoshis will have been mined in totality and the global demand for a peer to peer alternative will keep seeing more adoption in areas that need its crypto distributed ledger technology the most.
While the bitcoin price predictions may range all over the place for 2020, many are watching for $12,500 range as the next level of interest if bitcoin can get its wings back.
Bitcoin just hit $10,000.
I still think that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 by end of December 2021.
Fixed supply. Increasing demand. Time will tell. #Bitcoin
In a week that saw the Federal Reserve studying central bank digital currencies, over $1 billion in value locked away in decentralized finance, a new safe harbor notion, Gemini integrating TradingView, the lightning network payment railway getting $10 million in Series A funding – and of course, Bitcoin not failing as it has been successfully operating for 4,048 days since Satoshi activated the network’s software.
Buckle up bitcoiners, the ride has only begun.
Latest Bitcoin Price News and Crypto Market Updates
However, crypto trader Josh Rager says people are over-focusing on this chart and giving it way more credit than it actually needs.
Because Bitfinex allows users to trade up to 3.3x leverage, this means BTC price would have to move down to mid to low 5ks minimal in order to liquidate these longs.
But Rager says it is “highly unlikely” that price will nose dive straight to $5k right now. On its way down, there would be several bounces in between.
To get an understanding of the sentiment and interest in the Bitcoin market, we need to pay attention to the BitMEX funding rate and open interest which he says are better indicators.
The Bitcoin funding rate on BitMEX for December is on track for the lowest high since March and in the tightest range since February.
In stark contrast to Bitfinex’s longs, the BTC funding rate on BitMEX is pinned at 0.03%. The number of times the rate has been pinned at 0.03% on a daily basis continues to rise still and in Q4 of 2019 it represented about 40.5% of observed periods, notes analyst Rptr45.
BTC/USD shorts, on the other hand, have reached almost to its lowest level. The has the Bitfinex L/S ratio also at an ATH but as Rptr45 points out without an obvious funding justification which was the case in previous break-outs as well.
Meanwhile, there has been an uptick in open interest from the last few weeks on CME Bitcoin futures.
As per the Commitment of Traders (CT) report, the OI as of Dec. 12th has been only 116 million and on the lower end of the spectrum.
Digital asset advisory firm BitOoda views this as “negative for potential realized volatility in the short term.”
“Assuming the COT as OI for institutional investors and BitMex OI for retail and high net worth individuals, we could potentially see a set up to buy vol in the new year if the CME/Bakkt OI grows.”
This could help the futures market and further lead the way for realized volatility just like it has in the past. With the retail market already having a lot of exposure, the firm expects Bitcoin to either go back to $6,000 or test the 10,000 level on a 3-month time horizon.
Bitcoin price rises from $7,400 to over $10,000 BTC/USD briefly
exactly 200 days before the bitcoin mining halving
Last Week Today: Recap of the Top Bitcoin News Stories in the Past Few Days
The price of Bitcoin was under $7,500 USD less than 24 hours ago and has now soared over 30% to rise above $10,000 in the past 10 hours.
Now, there are so many things to talk about in this bitcoin price analysis and the greater cryptocurrency market, which rose from $205 billion to $261 billion in the past day.
Below we are going to cover the latest bitcoin news event in our signature ‘last week today’ crypto headline updates.
But before we do, many are weighing back in on the bitcoin price prediction of $16,000 by October 2019 after a previous 4chan’er successfully predicted bitcoin’s bear market current low in December 2015 of $3,131 BTC/USD and then got the April 2019 forecast of $5,300 as well as July 2019 of over $9,000. And now with just under one week left before the halloween month, Bitcoin has surged nearly $2,000 in a matter of half a day’s time.
And another interesting headline circulating the crypto twitter community is this:
Many what if’s are circulating about this trending storyline but the crypto community will always remain bullish when intriguing topics of interest are start to pop up as the permabulls await their second big wave of sunshine on the leading cryptoasset in the industry.
There’s so much more to add, from Bakkt updates to Tom Lee sharing more stats:
+12% rally in #Bitcoin coinciding with strong equity day as S&P 500 nearing all-time highs…
– a reminder of the ‘unpopular’ opinion that the bitcoin performs best when S&P 500 rallies.
– best years Bitcoin when S&P 500 return >15%.$BTC mostly retail, thus, mostly ‘risk-on’
Between Mark Zuckerberg appearing in front of Congress to talk Libra crypto project or the president of China Xi Jinping declaring the desire to seize the opportunity of blockchain technology, let’s take a look at the latest news we published about bitcoin’s price rally as well as the bitcoin mining halving countdown timer:
Latest Bitcoin Price News and Crypto Market Updates
Now let’s get into #LastWeekToday and recap what exactly happened in the past week in cryptoland and see how we arrived at today’s $2,000 price jump that is bringing all the bitcoiners to the school yard.
Last Week Today: Bitcoin and Crypto Weekly Digest
Let’s review all of the main stories of the latest crypto news from October 16-23, 2019:
18 million milestone a timely reminder of Bitcoin’s scarcity
Bitcoin blockchain transparency helps authorities bust dark web website
Undeterred by recent desertions, Facebook drafts Libra charter
New HTC Exodus blockchain phone can run a Bitcoin full node
Only 3 Million Bitcoins Left to be Mined, or 300 trillion satoshis!
To cap off a week of escalating fiat crises across major economies caused by inflation, Bitcoin scaled another aptly timed milestone last Friday as the 18 millionth bitcoin was mined, leaving just 3 million bitcoins to be mined over the next 120 years.
In a little over six months, the issuance of bitcoins as mining reward will be halved from 12.5 bitcoins to 6.25 bitcoins, reducing the daily supply from approximately 1800 bitcoins to 900 bitcoins and weekly supply from roughly 12600 bitcoins to 6300 bitcoins.
If you’re wondering about why the figures are approximate, it’s because block generation lacks hard-coded temporal constancy. It is a Poisson process, meaning that, simply put, the discovery of each block is an independent event unrelated to the previous or the next block.
Bitcoin bulls on social media have been referring to the upcoming halving as “the most dramatic in Bitcoin’s history”, citing the value of coins in dollars that will be pulled from daily supply, but this line of reasoning is flawed and misleading.
Bitcoin’s price during the 2012 halving was $12, which meant that despite a reduction of 3600 bitcoins in daily supply, only $43,200 in dollar value was made scarce. During the 2016 halving, Bitcoin’s price was $650, meaning that with a daily supply reduction of 1800 bitcoins, nearly $1.2 million was pulled from daily supply.
Each successive halving in fact reduces new supply by fewer bitcoins. The most dramatic thing about this halving is that it will reduce the daily supply to merely 900 bitcoins, which is a significant scarcity from a daily supply of 7200 bitcoins before the 2012 halving.
But for those who still want to swear by the most dramatic halving in terms of dollar valuation of Bitcoin, rest assured that the next halving on 2024 will reduce the supply by many more millions, if not billions, worth of… 3.125 bitcoins!
A couple of other talking points emerged from this latest spotlight on Bitcoin’s scarcity – Could deflationary money actually work in the long run? Is the reduction of mining reward a disincentive for miners to keep going without better fee compensation?
Big Four accounting firm Ernst & Young’s global innovation leader, Paul Brody drew upon the economic history of deflationary models to dismiss Bitcoin’s practicability as money, citing in particular The Great Depression which was exacerbated by the gold standard,
“If bitcoin were to become a substantial part of the global monetary system, we would need to address [the hard supply cap] because a lot of economists agree deflationary systems are not necessarily the best thing.”
This prompted discussions in the crypto universe, with some suggesting that the cap could be changed if deemed necessary. The argument regarding incentivizing the miners is very much tied into the discussion regarding Bitcoin’s disinflationary model.
Let’s first expose the folly of gold standard comparisons by so-called economists. The key selling point of Bitcoin, unlike gold, is that it is infinitely divisible and that makes Bitcoin infinitely more practical as money than gold. Sure, there’s only 3 million bitcoins left to mine but that’s 300 trillion satoshis!
Over the next 120 years, even as mining reward keeps halving, the actual value of bitcoins gleaned as reward is likely to appreciate, just as it has done over the last 10 years. When the reward drops to zero in 2140, it is just as likely that fee-based incentives are sufficient to make mining a profitable endeavour.
Bitcoin’s transparency exposes South Korean Criminal
When a criminal uses cash, nobody hears a thing and as a result, nobody talks about it. But when a criminal uses bitcoins, the cheap rags start circling the story to lazily associate bitcoins with criminal activities and pander to the establishment.
Bloomberg reported last week that a US and South Korean authorities busted one of the largest darknet markets for child pornography, a crime that is “proliferating at a furious pace with the rise of cryptocurrency.”
A 23-year-old South Korean citizen, Jong Woo Son, owner of a child porn website named Welcome to Video (WTV) was charged by a US federal grand jury and convicted in a South Korean court and held in custody in the country.
The darknet website is said to have attracted 337 registered users from 11 different countries including, shockingly, law enforcement officers from the US. 92 individuals in the US were nabbed by authorities and 23 minor victims from the US, Spain and the UK were rescued.
By using KYC forms submitted to exchanges and tracing the flow of funds on the blockchain using blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis’ Reactor software, law enforcement was able to link all the offenders’ addresses to the darknet website.
U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia, Jessie K. Liu delivered a scorching warning to offenders, “Our message for those who produce, distribute and receive child pornography is clear: you may try to hide behind technology, but we will find you, and we will arrest and prosecute you.”
What she failed to mention though was that the finding, arresting and prosecuting of these offenders would be impossible without the transparency afforded by the very same technology.
Facebook and friends plough on with Libra in forlorn hope
Sometimes, you almost feel sorry for Libra. Just when they thought things couldn’t get any worse after the calamitous departures from a couple of weeks ago, on the day of the inaugural Libra Association meeting, another member abandoned ship.
What was to be a 22-member meeting became a 21-member meeting, as travel aggregator Booking Holdings dropped out from the project. The company’s CEO Glenn Fogel said that they wanted no part of the controversy that’s developing around Libra.
At the meeting, the group elected its board of directors – a five-person board headed by Calibra CEO David Marcus and comprising four other executives from Kiva, Andreessen Horowitz, Xapo and PayU. An executive team was also appointed at the meeting.
The Libra Association issued a statement after the meeting, assuring to placate regulators around the world before launching the coin, “We are committed to building a better payment network. As an association, members will continue critical work with applicable regulators around the world, begin the important process of standing up a governance and policy structure and create a transparent membership criteria and admissions process.”
On Monday, in a development which highlighted Facebook’s desperation, Marcus was quoted by Reuters as having told bankers that Libra would be open to changing the structure of Libra by pegging the stablecoin to individual sovereign currencies, rather than a basket of currencies, “Instead of having a synthetic unit … we could have a series of stablecoins, a dollar stablecoin, a euro stablecoin, a sterling pound stable coin, etc.”
At a hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday, Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg was grilled on a variety of controversies regarding the social network, including Libra.
After reiterating that Facebook would not launch Libra without regulatory approval, Zuckerberg added that the company would leave the association if the other members decided to launch regardless of approval.
Zuckerberg also made it clear that the company had no intention of creating something that’s unregulated or decentralized, which makes us wonder why they decided to resort to blockchain buzzwords or even call that darned thing a cryptocurrency.
HTC unveils affordable successor to Exodus blockchain phone
Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC last Friday released a new blockchain phone, Exodus 1s. Further to housing a hardware wallet similar to its popular predecessor, Exodus 1, the new iteration is also capable of running a Bitcoin full node.
Being able to run a full node on a device housing the wallet is an added layer of security for users reluctant to trust third party wallet servers to interact with the blockchain. The device comes at a very attractive price of just $240.
Despite the advantage of being able to run a full node, Exodus 1s is unlikely to be popular as a primary smartphone with its underwhelming specs. The device runs Android Oreo on a Snapdragon 435 SoC, has a 5’7″ HD display, 13 MP front and back cameras and is powered by a 3075 mAh battery.
Those specs are outdated by at least 2 years, but regardless of the poor specs, Exodus 1s offers a lot of a niche audience by combining as a smartphone, hardware wallet and a Bitcoin full node, which makes it an attractive for its price.
However, with an internal memory of just 64 GB, to function as a full node the device requires the addition of a memory card since the Bitcoin blockchain’s size is currently 260 GB. HTC’s chief decentralized officer, Phil Chen was optimistic that the device will help the company stand out in a sluggish smartphone market rife with stodgy fare with little innovation,
“The Exodus 1 is still available and is hitting our internal targets. We’ve been delighted with the response. Exodus 1s is a completely different device. It allows you to relay transactions, confirm transactions and validate transactions. Crypto technology is the next frontier of smartphone innovation. For the smartphone category to grow again, we need more adoption of crypto phones.”
HTC may be way ahead of the market with their blockchain smartphones but by being the first to test the waters with the co-option of smartphones as a key interface for the digital economy, they’ve afforded themselves the crucial first mover advantage for this market, just like Apple did a decade ago with iPhones.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC/USD Trading Insights
No surprises there then. Another CME monthly futures close, another flash crash for BTC/USD.
After closing last week at 8235, the pair struggled to hold the level leading up to Friday, when the October futures are settled and predictably broke down from key support at 7750 to fill the futures gap from May.
Having now filled that gap, we’re at a knick point. It’s now make or break as a further move down could be pretty disastrous and would seem unreasonable six months out from the next halving.
The only thing that matters on the daily chart is that we’re precariously close to a death cross, an event that’s certain to spook bullish traders into capitulation and with good reason.
The 50/200 death cross is historically one of the most trusted indicators of trend shift and has an accuracy of 79%, meaning that it precedes a shift to downtrend on roughly four out of five occasions of the cross occurring.
But there’s some solace that having filled the long-standing futures gap and with indicators showing oversold, such as slow K descending to extreme oversold territory, we may still see a recovery to prevent the death cross.
At the time of writing, BTC/USD is showing some signs of a quick recovery but before we can say that the pair is truly out of the woods and clear of a potential bear trend, the price needs to cross back above the 200-day average at 8900 and re-assert its bullish momentum.
Things are also at a fairly critical juncture in the weekly chart and the close next Sunday could be important in determining if there is a primary trend shift.
Receding ADX indicates that the momentum from the flash crash is relenting, and a bearish DI crossover hinges on this week’s close. As does RSI keeping above bull-cycle low of 40.
BSV, BCH and LINK were the best performers among leading altcoins last week for BTC pairs. ETH and XRP posted marginal gains before slipping to 0.021 BTC and 3500 sats respectively. After briefly dropping to under 65%, Bitcoin recovered to assert a market dominance of 66.3%.
Latest Bitcoin Price News and Crypto Market Updates
BTC/USD Medium-term Trend: Ranging Resistance Levels: $10,000, $10, 200 ¸ $10,400 Support levels: $9,000, $8,800, $8, 600 Yesterday, July 23, the price of Bitcoin was falling after the resistance at the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA. On the downside, if the bearish pressure continues, the price may reach a low of $9,000 or $9,400 price level. Nevertheless, the price of Bitcoin will further depreciate, if the bears test the $9,000 price level and break it. Meanwhile, the crypto’s price is below the EMAs which indicates that price is likely to fall. From the chart, the 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are horizontally flat like a single line. This indicates that the BTC price will be in a range-bound move. The coin will fall either to the low of $9,000 or $ 9.400, then fluctuates below the EMAs but the $9,400 price level. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line are above the zero line which indicates is a buy signal. BTC/USD Short-term Trend: Bearish On the 1-hour chart, the BTC price is in a bearish trend. The 12-day EMA and the 26-day EMA are sloping smoothly southward. The crypto’s price is below the EMAs as the price fall to the previous low. The BTC price is trading at $9,637 as at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the MACD line and the signal line are below the zero line which indicates is a sell signal.
[Author Alert] The author’s opinions above are solely based on their own self-conducted research. Assume any and all authors are using, holding, trading and/or buying cryptoassets mentioned as a portion of his or her financial portfolio. Use information at your own risk, do you own research, never invest more than you are willing to lose.