The price of bitcoin is what always brings the biggest crowds naturally. But what do the strong network fundamentals, emerging ecosystem environment and a quantitative hardening due to the mining halving all mean in the grandiose landscape of global economics and finance. Bitcoin’s price is floating around the $9,760 range and was last above $10,000 BTC/USD exchange rate value on May 7th (during the super moon).
As the world continues to reopen its doors for business, commerce and activity, is bitcoin bound to make its presence felt in a post Covid-19 era? Let’s examine a few driving factors coming to the forefront and see whether or not the bullish case for Bitcoin in the month of May 2020 is tangible enough to taste it or is the post-halving cooldown coming during the summer of 2020?
Bitcoin Heading for the Bulls or Bears? US Govt. Pumps in Trillions of new Dollars
Whether you’re a fan of it or not, the United States Government is well on its way to pumping trillions of dollars into its economy in light of the COVID-19 crisis.
In late-March, the US Senate approved a more than $2 trillion stimulus package in order to sure up the losses from the outbreak of COVID-19 across the world. This is a monumental figure on its own, especally when compared to the $1.2trn released in 2008. Shortly after the passage of this package, the House of Representatives gave its approval for a further $3 trillion in funding.
These packages, while aiming to support the millions of American families across the country, are certainly going to impact on the markets. When looking back at the now-famous beginnings of Bitcoin – 2007/8 – US stimulus plans now simply dwarf anything that came before it.
In the past, centralised financial entities, like the Bank of England, or US Federal Reserve, served as a means of controlling inflation through monetary policy. Some of these methods that are more recent to us would be Quantitative Easing, and printing more money.
Both of these have been used, in the past to buy back government or corporate bonds, thereby creating more liqudity. But nothing about monetary policy happens in isolation. Companies like TRON, as we’ve reported previously, have been recipients of stimulus money, the picture is harder to make out when thinking about what this means for the crypto space in general.
What This Means for Crypto
From what we have seen of the crypto market over the course of this week: a bullish run is looking more likely. In what crypto investors and analysts have since dubbed “the most exciting breakout in over a year”, Bitcoin, alongside other big coins, have managed to regain a lot of lost ground.
Bitcoin has managed to pull even higher to hit $9,774 on time of writing; more than 4.7% increase over the course of today. Meanwhile, Ethereum appears to be riding a slight ascending trend, hitting $207, or 3.78% growth.
Bitcoin, in particular, has been helped a lot with what analysts see as a new support level (punching above the. $9100 ceiling this weekend) indicates a potential ascending wedge in the coming days.
Not to mention the fleeting conversation between JK Rowling and Elon Musk about the tangible applications of Bitcoin. Well, more like Elon giving JK a concise brief on why Bitcoin has its feet on solid ground, but still.
But what does this all mean for Bitcoin’s prospects moving forward?
We first have to take into account that, with Bitcoin’s long-awaited halving now in the rear-view mirror, a bullish run is more than likely on the cards. This suggestion is simply down to the fact that every halving has been followed up by a bullish run, as investors seek to capitalize on the introduction of new scarcity.
With the worlds economies moving from serious hits to their GDP’s to a re-opening of their markets, Bitcoin has been managing a relatively constant, if bullish turn. The COVID crisis had the silver lining of providing cryptocurrencies with renewed public interest, as investors look for new hedges for their portfolios. As far as hedges go, investing in cryptos like Bitcoin are looking more appealing, especially as countries aggressively print more money into circulation.
If all goes well, Bitcoin may see a break to record highs, with $11,000 tipped to be one of its destinations. Even in the more pessimistic forecasts, Bitcoin may just hit 9800, before slipping down to 88-8900.
Is a Bearish Correction possible?
Other analysts have suggested that, while a bull run may be underway at the moment, a correction may be coming up shortly after. There are a couple of indicators for this. The number of long positions, for example, outnumber shorts by over 3 to 1.
According to research conducted by Blockchain Whispers, the broader trend from investors leans heavily towards longer-term holding at current prices over shorts. This trend may indicate a more cautious attitude towards future price movements as opposed to fast, upward movements more conducive of short trading volume.
As a solid consolation for even the most pessimistic perspectives is the fact that Bitcoin has already taken on a solid lower support. With the ongoing upward performance, this lower support is likely to be expanded further.
May 2020 Bitcoin Price Outlook
When bitcoin began the first and biggest blockchain of today nearly 4,152 days ago; when the market for bitcoin didn’t even exist and slowly gain traction day by day, week by week, month by month, year by year, halving by halving, no one cared about the price of BTC in USD.
“They” cared about the trustless electronic value transfer system and now that those day one principles are three halvings in and over 4,150 days old and counting, the price of bitcoin may be what brings all the attention and admiration, but just remember grabbing a bit of the legacy chain for all cryptocurrencies and cryptoassets will be of great value if enough people continually keep thinking the way they are with the unlimited quantitative easening and uncertainty of the traditional markets.
Whether or not the bullish sentiment continues with Bitcoin over the next 13 days will largely depend on real-time developments and advancements within the space. No matter what scale of the innovation and breakthroughs of distributed ledger technologies, the price may not always be reflective in today’s market.