- Bitcoin price and volume is down while volatility jumps above 9%
- Long-term velocity turned bullish while MVRV Z-Score indicates market bottom
It’s just another day in the crypto market with Bitcoin down 6.36% trading at $6,225. The market doesn’t seem to decide on where it wants to head right now, as the market records double-digit percent changes in both the directions.
The crypto market started climbing this week after the stock markets found a temporary bottom. Given that cryptocurrencies are acting like risky assets in line with stock markets, it’s no surprise that the momentum has been positive throughout this week.
But the 7-day average real trading volume has dropped down after the volatile period for the past two weeks but still higher than the average recorded earlier in 2020. And increasing prices on decreasing volume is usually a bearish signal.
The 30-day volatility for the BTC price that has been extreme these days meanwhile has jumped above 9%. As Arcane Research notes, “with the global turmoil and volatile stock markets, it doesn’t look like the bitcoin price movements will settle down either.”
The rise in BTC’s price has the world’s top cryptocurrency leading the way with an increase in its dominance. While Bitcoin is closing up on Small Caps ahead of both Large and Mid Cap crypto indexes, Mid Caps continue to be the worst performer, down 34% this month.
However, despite the price boost, bitcoin is up 70% from its $3,850 bottom, the market sentiments are still reflecting “extreme fear” in the market with the Fear & Greed Index having a reading of 14. The last time the market stayed in “Extreme Fear” this long was in December 2018.
The Bitcoin Network
As we reported, mining difficulty for bitcoin declined by almost 16%, which has been the second biggest drop in its history. The largest drop was on October 31, 2011, of 18.03%. The network difficulty adjusts every 2016 block or 2 weeks in order to ensure that the network continues to mine new blocks every 10 minutes.
This decline came on the back of a drop in the hash rate following the crash in price two weeks ago. This decline indicates that fewer miners are competing to solve the math problem to mine the block and win freshly minted BTC.
Mining fees meanwhile jumped 47.8% since last month and a whopping 196% YTD, as per Glassnode.
Amidst this, the bullish metric is a long-term velocity that measures the speed at which bitcoin is moved through the network. A velocity of 600% means, active coins move six times per year and it has yet again turned bullish last week after being below 600% since August 2019.
Yet another bullish indicator is MVRV Z-Score which is used to assess when Bitcoin is under or overvalued relative to its fair value. It dropped under and then promptly bounced back over 0 in a space of two weeks and “historically, falling into the green zone has indicated market bottoms.”