- Trading volume drops to just $120 million
- MVRV, unrealized profits, and SSR paints a bullish picture
- Investor momentum tracking indicator suggests bottom most likely in
Bitcoin is not seeing much action and is stuck around $7,500 for over a week now. However, the volume has taken a severe drop, falling to a mere $120 million. Such low volumes make it easier for a large amount of transactions to move the prices and the market.
Breakout within 3days pic.twitter.com/PbUIpPKCd0
— The Cryptomist (@TheCryptomist) December 8, 2019
Indicators Painting a Bullish Picture
According to the on-chain data analytics platform, Glassnode, the bottom of the market is “close” and when that will happen the “reversal will be strong.”
MVRV that historically has indicated the bottom of the Bitcoin market cycle is consolidating towards 1. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) is the ratio between market cap and realized cap that gives an indicator of when the traded price is below fair value.
Another indicator pointing towards a similar bullish picture is unrealized profits. Relative unrealized profit is the total profit in USD of all coins in existence whose price at realization time was lower than the current price normalized by the market cap.
Now that investors have less profit to realize, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has started to diminish what is allowing for an upward momentum to build, notes Glassnode.
Another positive factor is SSR, the ratio between Bitcoin supply and that of stablecoins, USDT, TUSD, USDC, GUSD, PAX, DAI, and SUSD, denoted in BTC.
When SSR is low, that means the stablecoin supply has more “buying power” to purchase Bitcoin.
Currently, it is at 26.9, down from last month’s nearly 33 indicating high buying power which is “good in a bottoming market.”
“The more capital waiting on the sideline, the stronger the reversal once investor sentiment turns bullish again.”
What is interesting is the amount of initiative aggressive buyers we have that step in lately right at support, not just passive.
— Cantering Clark (@CanteringClark) December 8, 2019
Prominent analyst Willy Woo also pointed out that on-chain momentum is “crossing into bullish” and is advising to prep for the upcoming Bitcoin reward halving front running from here on.
As per the indicator that tracks investor momentum, the bottom seems to be most likely in, with “anything lower will be just a wick in the macro view.”
Long Target of $100k Intact but More Pain Expected Still
However, TraderXO shares his favored scenario where he sees Bitcoin price dropping further to $5.8 to $6k. This, however, is just one of his scenarios for BTC price and he says “nothing is certain,” but one should have a plan.
Cointegration is used by hedge funds in pairs trading (statistical arbitrage). Since #bitcoin stock-to-flow and price are cointegrated, and S2F is predetermined, pairs trading is IMO an interesting asymmetrical return opportunity: btc can go to zero, or 10x. What do you think? pic.twitter.com/tUMG6ao3yg
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) December 7, 2019
Veteran trader Peter Brandt is also expecting the Bitcoin to bottom soon but not before July 2020 when according to him BTC will complete ts 80% correction at $5,500.
This bearishness in the near term is because there have been four violated parabola since 2011 and massive capitulation by crypto bulls will lead to a bottom next year.
In the immediate term, however, he is bullish as the bottom of the multi-year channel will hold and “6-month bear channel on the daily chart will provide launch for renewed parabolic phase.”
As for the long term, the historic bull trend remains intact with a target of $100,000.